russia ukraine war impact on indian economy essay

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Russia-Ukraine War: What Impact Can It Have on India's Economy?

Doing business in the fog of war‚ distant as it may be‚ is fraught with unknown risks.

• Print Edition: Apr 03, 2022

An essay on the ‘State of the Economy’ in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) February 2022 bulletin begins by saying this: “Domestic macroeconomic conditions are striking a path that is diverging from global developments.” Perhaps, but the possible outcomes of the geopolitical crisis that began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 could challenge that assessment. That’s not all. On March 8, US President Joe Biden raised the ante in this war by announcing a ban on the import of Russian energy products. 

While the US itself is not very dependent on Russian oil—in 2021, it imported an average 672,000 barrels a day, or 8 per cent of its needs, according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA); Canada provides 51 per cent of US oil imports—the impact would be elsewhere. Crude oil prices could skyrocket—to as high as $150 a barrel, some analysts fear—and that would wreak havoc on the Indian economy. 

Many observers worry that the impact on India’s economy could be severe; others are sanguine that India’s economy is insulated from the effects of a war that is very far away. The stock market has already reacted, with major indices falling by almost 10 per cent since February 1, although they recovered around the days of the state election results. Several market veterans shrug off the slide saying a ‘technical correction’ was due anyway, and events in Europe supplied the trigger.

Most companies and business people are confident—or at least hopeful—that the crisis will be re solved quickly, since the world cannot afford a long drawn-out conflict or persistent political tension in Europe. That said, US-China trade tensions have persisted for long, and the global economy has adjusted. China’s alignment with Russia, and new tensions over Taiwan could, however, ratchet up the pressure. 

Three scenarios are possible: a difficult, but manageable short-term one, in which the dispute is resolved and tension de-escalated within two months, a second, more adverse situation in which the effects of persistent sanctions will be felt if the conflict continues for six to nine months, and the third, worst-case scenario of a dragged-out war over 12-18 months. Three types of effects on the Indian economy are likely: direct, affecting trade between India and both Russia and Ukraine; indirect, through global commodity and energy market shifts; and macroeconomic, as policy implementation and business choices may have to be deferred or adjusted to manage any fallout from the crisis. The results of and responses to this 3x3 matrix will vary, and degrees of uncertainty—at least at this stage—are high. The big question is how the Indian economy will weather this crisis. Will it demonstrate resilience, or will some sec tors get into serious difficulties? 

BITTER, BUT STRONG, MEDICINE 

Pharmaceutical companies—Sun Pharmaceuticals and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) come to mind— have production facilities in Russia and offices in Ukraine. Requests for an interaction sent to the first elicited no response, despite many attempts. DRL’s spokesperson sent a standard two-line response that has been curated for the media: “We have had a presence in the region for over three decades. Ensuring the well-being of our staff is our first and foremost priority, along with measures to meet patient needs and business continuity. We have been monitoring developments closely and preparing accordingly, and continue to do so.” Sudarshan Jain, Secretary General of the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA) and himself a former head of pharma company Abbott India, identified three immediate industry priorities, the first being to keep an adequate supply of medicines—three to four months’ stock—in Ukraine and Russia. “Our other priorities are to ensure the safety of employees in the region, and to ensure the safe return of our Indian staff and their families back home,” he says. “We are working closely with the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce on meeting these and other challenges.”

But there is one essential commodity’s behaviour that is concerning to the pharma industry: the volatility in active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) prices. The industry depends on imports for 90 per cent of its API needs, and increased volatility because of the Ukraine crisis is going to make matters worse. “Company margins— and balance sheets—are already stressed as a consequence of this volatility,” Jain points out. “Things could get harder for the industry, financially. Our response to the Covid-19 pandemic and changing operations and structures while still ensuring the f low of medicines isn’t interrupted has also come with some costs.” They would do it all over again if needed, he adds. Consultation with the government is ongoing to ad dress the API challenge, along with a whole host of other things.

THE PAYMENTS PROBLEM 

The imposition of economic sanctions on Russia has been swift. To start with, five major Russian banks have been barred by Europe and the US from the SWIFT global messaging system that lets banks communicate with each other across borders about payments and transfers between them, a sort of financial SMS confirmation system. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT, has more than 11,000 participating member banks and financial institutions from 200 countries, and makes global trade and finance possible. 

The sanctions have got the pharma industry worried, not because of the volume of trade—the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council (Pharmexcil) reported that in 2020-21, pharma exports to Russia and Ukraine amounted to $591 million and $181 million, respectively, or less than 3 per cent of total pharma exports—but because companies are worried about receiving payments. “Receiving payments for exports to Russia will now be a big problem,” says Ajay Sahai, Director General and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO). “There is about $400 million in unrealised receipts for exports that have already been shipped.” Most of that is from Russia. The problem, Sahai says, is that the financial consequences can be steep for exporters. Banks have applied stringent terms in recent months because the rouble has been a volatile currency, and now it has pretty much collapsed.

Pre-shipment credit is typically accompanied by insurance cover from the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECGC), and post-shipment credit has high penalties if payments are not received on time. “Unless the government asks banks to relax the penalties and payback periods until the situation is resolved, the costs for exporters can be crippling,” says Sahai. Russian companies have offered to pay through third countries—Turkey, for instance—but the ECGC and banks insist that payment through third countries should be part of the agreement when the contract is initiated, that is, before shipment is made. Unfortunately, that provision probably is absent in most contracts. 

On March 3, at a meeting in Kolkata, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das suggested that banks should find alternative ways of handling payments with Russia, but no ideas were forthcoming from bankers. In the past, a rupee-rouble exchange was put in place—this was after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to make payments for defence and other purchases—which may now be reconsidered. For imports, things may be a little easier. The bulk of Russia’s exports to India are oil, gas and coal, all of which, along with agricultural products (like sunflower oil from Ukraine), pharmaceuticals and medical devices, are exempt from sanctions. India’s trade volumes with the two countries are not very significant (see The Export-Import Impact). The indirect effects, however, are a whole different story.

THE COMMODITIES CONUNDRUM 

Over March 7 and 8, the price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) shot up from roughly $29,800 to over $100,000 a tonne, forcing the LME to suspend trading, and launch an investigation into the causes. Russia accounts for 9 per cent of global supply, but influences prices hugely. The immediate effect of the invasion of Ukraine was the jump in crude oil prices, which traded upwards of $110 a barrel at one point, though it softened to less than $105 thereafter. (On March 15, Russian crude was selling at a $26 discount to Brent.) However, the significant jump in spot prices worries economists, whose estimates on the tipping point for crude prices—the point at which the Indian economy will begin to feel the full impact—vary between $80 to $100 a barrel. 

Price hikes are not restricted to oil and gas or energy; over the past 18 months, all commodity prices have risen steadily. They seem to have plateaued, but this latest crisis has added its own upward impetus. Rising prices of three metals are of major concern: steel, aluminium and nickel. In addition, coal is a significant factor in the production of the first two. On March 4, aluminium hit a record $3,850 a tonne, an increase of 13 per cent in just a week, on the LME, and nickel reached an 11-year high.

The hike in steel prices could be beneficial for India, according to Amit Dixit, Director, Institutional Equities at Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd, a Mumbai-based financial services firm. “About 11 per cent of seaborne global steel exports are from Ukraine and Russia,” he points out. “Most of it is intended for Southeast Asia, and the crisis will disrupt their supply. This can be an opportunity for Indian steel makers to enter that market.”  Aluminium poses a different problem. Because of its high energy intensity—in India, 40 per cent of the cost of production is attributable to coal (as a source of energy)—which is a problem for achieving net zero carbon as agreed to in the climate change accords. There has been a push towards recycling. The International Energy Agency reports that 34 per cent of the metal used in 2020 was recycled. “But there is also a shortage of 2 million tonnes in a market where demand is 69 million tonnes annually,” Dixit points out. Ergo, prices will go up. Russia is a significant producer of aluminium, accounting for roughly 4-6 per cent of global production, and is among the world’s most cost efficient producers. Sanctions compound the supply shortage. India is unlikely to face supply constraints, though. Hindalco, Vedanta and Nalco can more than meet domestic demand. But the metal’s prices are set at the LME, not in India, and so are likely to remain high.

Two other metals are worthy of mention: palladium and platinum. Russia accounts for 35 per cent of the global production of the first, and 10 per cent of the second. Both are key inputs into catalytic converters, and thus the automobile supply chain. In 2019, palladium became the most expensive of the four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium), and a reliable substitute isn’t easily available. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia in April 2018—the US has a long history of imposing sanctions on Russia for a variety of reasons— the volatility in prices was similar, and the impact on the automobile industry was very adverse. That can hit close to home for consumers. 

A TWIST IN THE TAILPIPE

In December 2021, asked by the media on the outlook for 2022, auto mobile industry leaders and senior executives shared opinions that ranged from hopeful to ‘cautiously optimistic’. The pandemic itself pushed up demand for personal passenger vehicles, although the global semiconductor chip shortage and higher fuel prices increased the cost of ownership considerably. Others said they expected demand to strengthen after India navigated the Omicron variant onset; production shortages due to a global semiconductor chip shortage were also handled relatively smoothly.

But industry honchos seem unwilling to hazard a statement now. Attempts to connect with and questions sent to senior company executives for this article were met with silence. Basudeb Banerjee, an Automobile Industries Analyst at ICICI Securities, says there’s no cause for worry. “The choice for consumers is really between the cost of personal mobility weighed against the cost of family time, which seems to have become more valuable now,” he says. “Most people will still be willing to absorb the higher costs.” Plus, the government has also chipped in with policy incentives for production; there’s about Rs 26,000 crore under the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for the auto and auto component industries, another Rs 18,000 crore for investment in advanced chemistry cells (for EVs), and Rs 76,000 crore for semiconductor manufacturing over the next six years. The latest surge in commodity prices will delay the industry’s anticipated recovery. Several analysts had priced in a bottoming out of gross margins by the second quarter of FY22. 

The sustained increase in commodity prices, and now the Ukraine crisis, have shifted that point to Q3FY23. More pain before some gains, apparently. The logic for that assessment is relatively straightforward. Raw material costs as a share of sales value amount to roughly 75 per cent (see The Platinum, Palladium Risk). The sum of energy conversion costs, logistics, sales and marketing—labour costs will remain stable—will dent or damage gross margins by about roughly 3-4 per cent.

With additional costs stemming from the crisis—not forgetting inflation—the gross margin turnaround could well be pushed into the start of 2024, if the Ukraine crisis persists. And if markets are anything to go by—both equity markets and futures—people are persuaded that things could take longer before ‘normalcy’ is restored. Uncertainty breeds volatility. 

UNMAKING THE MARKET 

The most obviously visible signs of distress are in global equity markets, and their hopes of a fast resolution seem likely to be belied. On March 4, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the media in Brussels that an early end to the crisis appears unlikely, after his meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Sanctions on Russia, its businesses and economy are likely to get harsher. Indian stock markets have been ‘correcting’ very quickly. On March 7, the S&P BSE Sensitive Index (BSE Sensex) had declined to 53,035, by almost 15 per cent from its 52-week record high of 62,245. 

Another 5,700-point decline will take it to the lowest point in a year, or 42,205. That likelihood doesn’t seem far-fetched, although it recovered marginally to 55,464 on March 10. Rashesh Shah, Chairman and CEO of the Edelweiss Group, isn’t convinced that the Ukraine crisis is the primary cause for the fall in the Indian equity market. “We were already in a global risk-off environment,” he says. “India is reasonably insulated from what is essentially a geopolitical crisis.” He acknowledges the potential inflationary effects that commodity prices will have on the economy. “But look at corporate balance sheets,” he argues. “This year’s Budget and tax collections in the past few months have been high enough for the RBI to reduce the government’s borrowing programme; the government’s balance sheet is strong too.” 

Others are less sanguine. “The market was expensive, and some valuations were definitely very high,” says Sanjeev Prasad, Managing Director and Co-head at Kotak Institutional Equities. “Interest rates are high, and so is inflation. I have never seen people in the equities market as worried about inflation as they are now.” He’s right about excessive valuations. The stock price of TCS, for example, was 19-22 times forward earnings through most of the last decade; it is now 30 times. HUL (Hindustan Unilever Ltd) was at more than 45 times earnings in early March, and Avenue Supermarts Ltd—otherwise known as DMart— has a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 110 times! The National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) Nifty 50 is trading at 19.5 times. Prasad worries that inflation in FY23 could average well above RBI forecasts; an extended conflict could keep oil prices higher than $110 a barrel; September oil futures on March 8 were over $126. Together with other high commodity prices, the RBI may have to revise its inflation estimate upwards, to 6 per cent, probably even higher. With 10-year bonds at a shade over 6.8 per cent, and forward earnings yield (the reciprocal of the P/E ratio) at 5.13 per cent, the yield gap between equity and bonds is 162 basis points. “When earnings yield is that much lower than bond yield, equities are clearly overpriced,” Prasad points out. “And if the RBI hikes interest rates to contain inflation, that gap could get bigger, or there will be a bigger market correction.”

INFLATION: ILLUSION OR SPIRAL? 

There is a spectrum of views on inflation and the economy’s ability to tolerate it. There are a multitude of ways that economists and other analysts slice and dice it: food versus non-food, core versus consumer, cost-push versus demand pull (which is analogous to supply side versus demand side) and so on. Inflation is also intensely political. Energy prices will go up sharply as crude oil and coal prices spiked as a result of the current crisis involving Ukraine and Russia. A meeting of OPEC+—a group that has 23 members that account for 45 per cent of global crude production and of which Russia is co-chair—lasted just 13 minutes on March 2. Not surprisingly, they held the line on production; after all, they are happy to take the benefits of the price increase. “Sanctions may not be imposed beyond the end of March or April; at least that’s the hope,” says Madan Sabnavis, until recently chief economist at CARE Ratings, and currently Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda. “India’s GDP growth for this year—FY22—is unlikely to be impacted, though some volatility in bond and currency markets cannot be ruled out.” 

The problem is, inflation may have been suppressed for a while recently. Elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand necessitated keeping fuel prices untouched even as global crude prices were rising even before the Ukraine crisis; many are also expecting a hike in minimum support prices (MSP) for farmers. Both these are expected to go up. Look out for second order effects as transport prices and freight rates also go up. Still, public finance—at least right away—will not be a problem. The government’s cash balances with the RBI seem more than adequate and cancelling the auction of some government debt has lowered expectations of problems, and suggest that tax collections will be robust. “But the increase in oil prices will reduce excise and neutralise expected revenue gains,” says Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at YES Bank. “The global economy—and thus India—will feel significant pain if oil prices stay this high for an extended period. Demand will cool and supply-side bottlenecks will persist if the crisis persists beyond three months.”

Conducting a nimble monetary policy will be challenging. Many expect the US to withhold interest rate increases; global analysts suggest there may be fewer rate increases, although US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is not taking his foot off the brake entirely. There will be policy rate hikes, and with consequences for India’s economy. Ordinary people were already expecting high inflation even before the crisis. The January 2022 Household Inflation Expectations Survey expected inflation to be higher at 9.7 per cent a month ahead, and at 10.6 per cent in the coming three months, and 10.7 per cent for the coming year. Compare that to the RBI’s target of 4.5 per cent for the year. 

Opinions and views on the impact of the crisis—and the consequences of sanctions against Russia—fall into two camps: one believes, maybe even hopes, that the crisis gets over quickly, a second is worried that it may last longer than anticipated and cause some permanent economic damage. No one wants to prepare for the worst possible outcome. The problem is, despite hope and selective amnesia, India cannot ‘decouple’, as many people thought India could before the global financial crisis of 2008. Then, as now, that impression is wildly inaccurate. In an interconnected global economy, it doesn’t have to be a sneeze that can give the world a cold, or the shivers.

The writer is a freelance journalist.  

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How will the Russia-Ukraine war impact the Indian economy?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February was the largest conventional military attack seen since World War II and can cause a global economic catastrophe.

India had taken a neutral stance , born of its historic strategic partnership with Russia. This alliance, harking back to Cold War times , spans several fronts—diplomacy, defence , nuclear energy, and technology —making Russia a pivotal part of India’s nation-building process, especially during its infancy.

Yet, this is unlikely to shield India from the ravages of a war of such scale. Especially since, in the global geopolitical context, both India and Russia today find themselves ever more closely linked to two others powers, China and the US.

The Russia-Ukraine war crisis

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has stoked uncertainty in global trade and will impact oil and other commodities, according to Sunil Sinha, research director, and principal economist at India Ratings. India may not have a significant merchandise trade with Russia, nevertheless, it stands to lose economically due to supply disruptions caused by Western sanctions.

“Despite India’s limited direct exposure, the combination of supply disruptions and the ongoing terms of trade shock will likely weigh on growth, result in a sharper rise in inflation, and (lead to) a wider current account deficit,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura Holdings in a report.

Here are the ways India could suffer due to a Russia-Ukraine war even without being part of it.

Ban on Russia’s crude exports

In reaction to the US’s ban on all oil and gas imports from Russia, Brent crude prices surged to nearly $130 per barrel last week, up 43% from the beginning of February.

This is a major setback for global economic growth as Russia is one of the largest exporters of crude oil globally. India’s trade, however, comprises only 1% oil imports from Russia, but there could be a spillover impact in the form of high inflation and sluggish growth.

On March 13, Morgan Stanley lowered India’s GDP forecast for the fiscal year 2023 by 50 basis points to 7.9%, citing risks to macro stability due to high crude oil prices.

“Even as we expect the cyclical recovery trend to continue, we expect it to be softer than we previously projected,” it said in a report. “We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy.”

It was noted that more risks could arise if global growth conditions weaken further, which would hamper India’s export and capital expenditure cycle.

Inflationary concerns

India depends on imports to meet up to 85% of its crude oil needs. The surge in international oil prices to a 14-year high will now result in broader price pressures.

Analysts conclude that the impact on India’s economy will be felt mostly through higher cost-push inflation weighing in on all economic agents—households, businesses, and government.

Every 10% rise in crude oil prices leads to a 0.4 percentage point-rise in consumer inflation, Nomura has stated.

Morgan Stanley pegs retail inflation at 6% for the fiscal year 2023, much higher than the RBI’s 4.5% .

This has increased the risks of a higher import bill and, in turn, a widening of India’s current account deficit (CAD). The CAD is expected to widen to 2.6% of the GDP in the financial year 2023, up from 1.7% last year, according to a report by Nomura Research. This is likely to dent the rupee, which recently plunged to its record low of 76.98 a dollar.

India’s defence supplies

It is believed that the multiple abstentions from a vote in the United Nations from India since the Ukraine invasion were driven by the country’s need to secure its supply of defence equipment, most of which comes from Russia.

Between 2016 and 2020, India accounted for nearly 25% of Russia’s total arms exports, according to trends by a defence think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This explains that the share of defence expenditure in India’s budget every year is not little.

In its union budget for 2022-23, India allocated $70.2 billion on military spending, up almost 10% over the initial allocation in the previous fiscal. A key defence contract in question is the delivery of the Russia-developed S-400 air missile system worth $5 billion, which was signed in October 2018.

A congressional research service report (pdf) from October 2021 said the Indian military cannot operate effectively without Russian-supplied equipment. The Indian Army’s main battle tank force is composed predominantly of Russian T-72M1 and T-90S, accounting for 66% and 30% of all units respectively, it said.

India will continue to rely on Russian weapons systems in the middle term, analysts say, despite the US’s threat  of sanctions over the S-400 purchase looms large over India.

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How India Profits From Its Neutrality in the Ukraine War

By Lazaro Gamio ,  Leanne Abraham,  Ana Swanson and Alex Travelli June 22, 2023

The Gulf of Kutch in India is home to the world’s largest oil refinery. But until recently Russia, one of the largest producers, rarely shipped crude petroleum here.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, tankers laden with Russian oil are an increasingly common sight along this inlet of northwestern India.

A New York Times analysis of data from SynMax, a satellite data analytics company, found that dozens of tankers now arrive every month from Russia.

The ships are signs of a stark wartime phenomenon: Since fighting began, India has rapidly emerged as a primary buyer of Russia’s vast supply of crude oil.

India’s purchases have put it strategically between Russia and the Western coalition backing Ukraine, as the world’s economic relationships continue to be rewired in the wake of the war.

The United States, Europe and other countries have imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow. In an effort to hurt Russia but keep global supplies steady, the West also imposed a cap on the price Russia could charge for its oil.

This cheaper oil has found new markets — including India, which now purchases nearly two million barrels a day, roughly 45 percent of its imports, according to the International Energy Agency.

In addition to stoking India’s economy, cheap Russian oil has given India a lucrative business refining that crude and exporting the products to other regions that suddenly need fresh energy supplies. That includes the European Union, which has banned direct oil purchases from Russia.

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has taken a neutral stance on the conflict in Ukraine. The country’s balancing act will be in focus this week, as Mr. Modi makes his first state visit to the United States .

The nations’ leaders will meet on Thursday to discuss new partnerships in defense, clean energy and space, in an effort to solidify what the Biden administration has called “one of our most consequential relations.” The conversations are likely to touch on reducing India’s ties to Russia, which include partnerships in defense and energy.

In a little over a year, India has gone from purchasing hardly any Russian oil to buying about half of what the country exports by sea.

Where Russia’s seaborne oil exports go

Source: Kpler

Note: Data through May 2023.

Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer. Some of that oil is exported through pipelines , the destination of which cannot be changed without hefty investments. But the tankers that ferry oil across oceans can be more easily rerouted, often to China and India, which together purchased almost 80 percent of seaborne Russian crude oil exports in May.

China and India are buying so much Russian oil now that Moscow is selling more crude than it was before it invaded Ukraine. At the same time, lower prices have meant that the Russian government is earning less revenue on its oil trade.

The reasons for falling oil prices are complex, and experts debate how much they are because of the West’s price cap, or merely the result of a slowing global demand . Either way, India has found a way to take advantage of the situation.

What India is paying for Russian crude

Russia invades

$125 a barrel

Each dot is

a shipment of

crude oil to India

Shipment of

Russian crude

Shipments of

357 shipments

$78 average

Price cap placed on

365 shipments

$51 average

Before Russia’s invasion , India’s imported oil came mostly from the Middle East. Prices of shipments fluctuated based on global market conditions.

Once fighting began , a deluge of Russian crude began arriving — often at a far lower cost — according to a New York Times analysis of shipping and market data from Kpler and Argus Media, two commodity research firms.

There were 357 shipments in the roughly nine months between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the institution of the price cap , the Times analysis showed. The average price per barrel from Russia was $78.

After the price cap , which was set at $60, the pace of shipping accelerated. The average price of Russian oil plummeted to $51 a barrel — translating into billions in savings for buyers.

Sources: Shipment data from Kpler. Pricing data from Argus Media.

Note: Data through May 2023. Only crude shipments from the Middle East and Russia are shown, but these constitute the bulk of shipments over this time period.

The bulk of the crude that goes to India from Russia arrives at ports near Jamnagar in Gujarat State and is piped to nearby refineries.

The Jamnagar Refinery, which is owned by Reliance Industries, is the largest in the world, with the capacity to process more than 1.2 million barrels per day. Reliance is controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s most powerful businessman and a strategic partner to Mr. Modi’s government.

India’s second-largest refinery is less than 10 miles away: the Vadinar complex owned by Nayara Energy. Nayara is half-owned by Rosneft, Russia’s state oil company; a Russian investment group has a stake in the other half.

So as the trade in this region grows, Russian companies — and, by extension, Moscow — are reaping some of the benefits.

Russian crude shipments in the Gulf of Kutch this year

Total barrels shipped between through May 2023.

Pipeline to

Panipat refinery

Mundra Port

21 million barrels

To Arabian Sea

Jamnagar Refinery

Vadinar Refinery

77 million barrels

55 million barrels

Sources: Satellite image by Copernicus. Data via Kpler.

Note: Pipeline paths and refinery boundaries are approximate.

Some of what’s processed at these sites is used domestically. But a growing amount is funneled to the global market, starting with Southeast Asia, Africa and — increasingly — Europe and the United States. India sells all of these products at market prices, earning revenue for its companies and bulking up the country’s reserves of foreign currency with dollars and euros.

The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research group based in Finland, published a report in April that highlighted the role of certain “laundromat” countries, which buy Russian oil, refine it into other products and sell it on to buyers in Europe, the United States and other jurisdictions that have halted direct purchases from Russia.

Chief among these countries named in the report was India, as well as China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore.

The port of Sikka, which serves the Jamnagar Refinery, was both the largest global import point for seaborne Russia crude oil and the single biggest point of oil exports to the countries that had imposed the cap, the report said. From December to February, the refinery exported almost $3 billion worth of refined products to countries observing the price cap.

Where India’s seaborne oil products go

India has rejected the notion that it is trying to profit from wartime sanctions.

In the lead up to India’s first time hosting the Group of 20 nations summit in September, the country’s diplomats have been working furiously to balance the concerns of the European Union, the United States, China, Russia and other members.

But the Modi government’s first priority appears to be making India, which recently surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, more self-reliant. In practice, that means pursuing its own interests without regard for its partners’ complaints.

In December, S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, was asked in Parliament about India’s decision to buy Russian crude. “It is a sensible policy to go where we get the best deal in the interest of the Indian people,” he said. “If it is your contention that our position has been in putting the interests of the Indian public first, I plead guilty.”

Methodology

Tanker ship position data was provided by SynMax , a satellite data analytics company, using two commodity tracking platforms, Theia and Leviaton AI . Using this data, The Times was able to map the paths that ships leaving Russia took between January and May in both 2021 and 2023.

By comparing the path data with known port locations published in the World Port Index , The Times calculated when a ship stopped at a specific port. The data was filtered further to show only ships that left Russian waters and headed directly to an Indian port.

Crude prices

The Times analyzed oil shipment data from Kpler , a firm that tracks global trade, to find how much Russian crude was flowing into India. Using the date of departure of each shipment, The Times cross-referenced the type of crude oil flowing into India with corresponding price data from Argus Media , a commodity research firm.

Based on prices set at departure ports, Indian crude buyers may have saved $5.8 billion to $14.7 billion. Departure price data does not include the shipping and insurance cost that buyers have to pay to get crude to its final destination, therefore total savings may not have been as much.

Russian Urals Crude, for example, was priced at an average of $65 a barrel in May as delivered to West Indian ports, compared with $50 when priced in departure ports in Russia.

Additional sources

Victoria Grabenwöger, crude oil analyst at Kpler; Dror Guzman, Principal Software Engineer at Synmax; and Seana Lanigan, Head of Media Relations at Argus Media

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Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

News and Analysis

The top American military commander in Europe warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia  if the United States did not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces, and fast.

Ukrainian lawmakers passed a mobilization law aimed at replenishing the nation’s exhausted and depleted fighting forces .

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, met in Beijing . The visit came days after the United States threatened new sanctions against Chinese companies if they aided Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Hollowing Out a Generation:  Ukraine desperately needs new recruits, but it is running up against a critical demographic constraint long in the making: It has very few young men .

Conditional Support: Ukraine wants a formal invitation to join NATO, but the alliance has no appetite for taking on a new member  that would draw it into the biggest land war in Europe since 1945.

‘Shell Hunger’: A desperate shortage of munitions in Ukraine  is warping tactics and the types of weapons employed, and what few munitions remain are often mismatched with battlefield needs.

How We Verify Our Reporting

Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs , videos and radio transmissions  to independently confirm troop movements and other details.

We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts .

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Impact of Russia Ukraine War on Indian Economy

The supply chains have been hit all around the world and experts are of the opinion that Indian economy will be negatively impacted due to such disruptions.

Table of Contents

Russia Ukraine War UPSC: Relevance

• GS 2: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

Russia Ukraine tension: Context

• The ongoing Russia Ukraine tensions have impacted the global trade significantly. The supply chains have been hit all around the world and experts are of the opinion that Indian economy will be negatively impacted due to such disruptions.

Impact of Russia Ukraine War on Indian Economy: Key sectors to be impacted

• Oi forms a major component of our import basket from Russia. The sanctions can sour the price to a new level, resulting into higher prices of petroleum products domestically.
• Notably, Economic Survey 2021-22 has pointed 3 challenges to Indian economy—Resurgent COVID waves, supply chain disruptions and inflation.
• Due to rise in fuel price our import bill will sour and so will our Current Account Deficit.

• If the fuel price remains at high levels for a long time, prices of other commodities which India imports will also rise in the international market.
• Due to this pressure on global economy, demand may be impacted which could affect our exports too.

भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर रूस यूक्रेन युद्ध का प्रभाव

Agriculture

• Russia and Ukraine are the major global suppliers of wheat, corn and sunflower oil.
• India imports most of its sunflower oil from Ukraine .
• Considering the demand of oil in India, the price rise of sunflower oil will further increase inflation in India.
• A sustained rise in oil and food prices would have adverse impacts on Asia’s economies, manifested through higher inflation, weaker current account and fiscal balances, and a squeeze on economic growth.
• In such a scenario, India, Thailand and the Philippines will be the most impacted countries, while Indonesia would be a relative beneficiary.
• Till date, banking sector has remained resilient to the ongoing conflict.
• The indicators of financial health— profitability, asset quality and capital adequacy —has risen to a new peak, thus showing a strong banking scenario.
• Moreover, there is adequate liquidity of Es. 7 lakh crore and appropriate cash balance of Rs. 2.8 lakh crore, which should insulate the banking sector from the ongoing crisis.

• The expected shortfall in international markets because of the ongoing war is likely to keep steel prices at buoyant levels in the near term, which will benefit Indian steel players .
• Also, export opportunities will allow leading steel companies to operate at higher capacity utilisation rates.

Impact of Russia Ukraine War on Indian Economy: Conclusion

• Some sectors like oil and gas and both ferrous and non-ferrous metals can gain through this trend, while the ones which depend on oil as a key input, like chemicals, fertilisers, gas utilities, refining and marketing, will have a negative impact.

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: What a war could mean for the Indian economy

In case a conflict does break out, what will its repercussions be for India, especially its economy? Here are three charts which can throw some light on the issue.

Will Russia actually invade Ukraine? Will such an act mutate into a full blown war between Russia and the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? The answer to these questions will depend on how the US and its NATO allies deal with Russian objection to potential inclusion of Ukraine in the military alliance. 

Crude petroleum prices are already on fire, a military conflict could send them higher

This year’s Economic Survey expects crude petroleum prices to be in the range of $70-75 per barrel over the course of fiscal year 2022-23. Crude prices have been above $90 per barrel for more than a week now. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been a major reason for the recent spike in crude petroleum prices. “Both benchmarks (for petroleum prices) hit their highest since September 2014 on Monday (February 14), with Brent touching $96.78 and WTI reaching $95.82”, Reuters reported. “Oil prices steadied on Wednesday (February 16) after retreating more than 3% in the previous session as investors gauged the impact of easing Russia-Ukraine tension against a taut balance between tight global supplies and recovering fuel demand”, the story added.

To be sure, analysts continue to maintain that even without the conflict they are likely to remain high. However, a military conflict with Russia is bound to worsen the situation. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (US-EIA), Russia had a share of 12.5% to 13% in global crude oil production, which is almost half of the total crude oil production in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the middle east (west Asia) region. If crude prices stay at current levels, or worse, increase even more, most of the budgetary calculations could become redundant as the government would face a triumvirate of economic challenges on the fiscal (it will have to cut taxes), inflation and current account front.

The energy impact of a military conflict involving Russia will not be limited to crude oil prices alone. Western Europe is also dependent on natural gas supplies from Russia to a very large extent (40% according to a Reuters story) and a disruption in supplies, which is what will happen with a military conflict, will generate additional tailwinds for energy prices in Europe. This is bound to feed into global inflation. This again is bad news for India.

The trade repercussions of Russian conflict with the West

If Russia does invade Ukraine and there is a larger conflict involving US and its other NATO allies, it is to be expected that US and other advanced countries will impose economic sanctions on Russia. Often, these sanctions also hold for countries trading with an aggressor.

How will it impact India’s international trade? Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’s (CMIE) database shows that Russia has been losing its importance when it comes to trade with India. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was an important export destination for India and it had a share of almost 10% in India’s total exports. This number has come down to less than 1% by 2020-21. To be sure, India’s overall trade has increased in this period. Russian imports had a share of 1.4% in India’s total imports in 2020-21. While the potential disruption on current trade might not be so high, a conflict and resultant sanctions could hinder India’s plans to increase its trade and investment relations with Russia. “Enhancing trade and economic cooperation between India and Russia is a key priority for the political leadership of both the countries as is clear by the revised targets of increasing bilateral investment to $50 billion and bilateral trade to $ 30 billion by 2025”, says a brief on India-Russia economic relations on the website of the Indian embassy in Russia. India’s total trade with Russia in 2020 was $9.31 billion, the brief adds.

But it might be difficult to immediately substitute Russian military imports

The relatively insignificant headline trade numbers notwithstanding, sanctions on Russian exports could create a problem for India’s defence requirements. According to a March 2021 factsheet by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia was the second largest global arms exporter in 2016-2020 and India was its largest export destination accounting for 23% of Russian defence exports. Globally, Russia accounted for 20% of global arms exports during this period, down from 26% between 2011-2015. “The overall decrease in Russia’s arms exports between 2011–15 and 2016–20 was almost entirely attributable to a 53% drop in its arms exports to India…Although several large Russian arms deals with India, including for combat aircraft, were completed by 2020, India placed new orders for a variety of Russian arms in 2019–20. The ensuing deliveries will probably lead to an increase in Russian arms exports in the coming five years”, the factsheet says.

“Over the years, (India-Russia) cooperation in the military technical sphere has evolved from a purely buyer-seller relationship to joint research, design development and production of state of the art military platforms. Production of the Brahmos cruise missile is an example of this trend. The two countries are also engaged in joint design and development of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft and Multi-Role Transport Aircraft”, the website of the Indian embassy in Moscow says.

To be sure, Indo-Russian defence ties have been facing headwinds even without the risks of the present conflict. On the one side India has strengthening its strategic alliance with the US -- seen in decisions such as becoming a part of the Quad -- and on the other, its sourcing of military equipment from Russia has been coming under greater scrutiny. While the US might have chosen to kick the can down the road earlier, given India’s strategic importance in its efforts to pose a challenge to China, a direct conflict with Russia might change this approach. To surmise, it might be difficult for India to sit on the fence if Russia does enter into a military conflict with the West. Its economic consequences, will not be insignificant.

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday. ...view detail

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An Expert Explains: Russia-Ukraine war, two years on

As the russian invasion of ukraine completes two years, taking stock of some key questions, of the present and the future, around the european war that has impacted the world in multiple ways — where does the war stand, and where is it headed.

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Two years later , an end to the biggest war in Europe since World War II is nowhere in sight. The fighting has displaced millions of Ukrainians, altered the geopolitical landscape of Europe, and hit economies around the world by disrupting supply chains, adding to inflation, and triggering great economic uncertainty.

On the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine , where does the war stand, and how far have the two sides, Russia and Ukraine, backed by the West, met their main objectives?

When the war started, perhaps the whole world expected Russia to quickly overrun Ukrainian defences and occupy the capital, Kyiv. At the beginning of February 2022, then Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley reportedly told congressional leaders that in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine could collapse in 72 hours. It is now two years — and the Ukrainians have kept the Russian forces at bay and defended their country with a lot of resolve.

However, the momentum in the war today rests with Russia. The Ukrainian forces are feeling an acute shortage of equipment and manpower. Russia, on the other hand, has been able to successfully readjust and readapt their tactics to the new kind of war that is being fought. And most importantly, it has been able to protect its economy from Western sanctions. Today, the Russian economy is actually booming. This is something the West did not expect.

What do you mean by a “new” kind of war?

This is not the kind of blitzkrieg that, let’s say, we have seen the Americans do in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in other places, where there’s a shock-and-awe element — send a lot of airplanes, missiles, take out the enemy’s air defences, and then march in triumphantly and take over the country.

In Ukraine, the Russians met with a fairly resolute defence. And when they realised that this was going to be a longer war, they readjusted their tactics to that assessment.

One example is that of drones. Ukrainian drones initially had very significant successes. The Russians understood that — and not only did they adopt the use of drones themselves, they also found ways to defend against drones. So occasionally a drone will still go deep inside Russia, but they are not able to inflict the kind of damage they did in the first few months of the war.

To Europe, Russia appears more menacing today, while it itself remains dependent on the US for security. Donald Trump has said he won’t help countries that don’t spend on their defence. What’s in store for the trans-Atlantic military compact, within and outside the NATO framework?

There is no immediate challenge to the trans-Atlantic framework. NATO is not going to be shaken. If anything, NATO has been strengthened by Russia’s actions. New countries like Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, and the length of Russia’s border with NATO has in fact increased.

However, the war has impacted the economies of Europe, and so, politics is beginning to kick in. In some places, far-right political parties are taking advantage of the economic stress and the resultant frustration among people. But the overall support for the Ukraine war is not decreasing in Europe.

One definite consequence of the war is going to be greater militarisation of Europe. Countries across the continent will spend more on defence, and there will be a strong military security aspect to Europe in the near future.

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Has the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza impacted the Russia-Ukraine war?

Yes and no. The Gaza conflict and brutality has definitely taken attention away from the war in Ukraine. Also, it is stretching US capacities, because the US has to now effectively fight on two fronts.

The US does not have to prove anything, but there is a perception that it is coming under stress. From that perspective, Ukraine’s anxiety about continued funding from the US and the West might increase.

In terms of the military aspect of the Ukraine war, the other conflict (in Gaza) has not had any significant effect.

But has the American and European support for the brutal Israeli campaign weakened their moral case against Russia?

The Americans are probably not looking at this from that point of view. They are looking at it from the point of view of their national interest.

They believe Israel has the right to defend itself, and therefore, they are all out in support. They do understand that their repeated vetoes in the United Nations against a ceasefire in Gaza is losing them support in the Global South. But they also recognise that while for the Global South this is a question of morality, in terms of hard capabilities, the region can’t do anything to influence policy either in Ukraine or in Gaza. So they are willing to live with that situation for some time more.

Where does Vladimir Putin stand, compared with two years ago? Has his stature grown because of the war?

This is a difficult judgment to make, because the information about Russia that is available to most of us comes primarily through a Western prism. But if you look at Russian media and the reactions of the Russian people, it would seem that Putin has retained his support base. He continues to enjoy popular support, as will be probably shown during the March election that he is widely expected to win.

Whether the war adds to his stature is a complex question. Most Russians do not like the concept of war. And even if they support Putin and support the war, they would like it to end quickly.

What has India gained or lost as a consequence of the war, in terms of the impact on its economy, and its global diplomatic standing?

India deserves praise for taking a very balanced position when the war started, and for refusing to join the chorus of condemnation of Russia. And while the war affected global supply chains and commodity prices, in some areas, India benefited.

One, India had sudden access to cheap Russian oil, which the Russians sold to India in large quantities and at a large discount. So it was able to withstand any shock of an oil price rise. Oil is a very sensitive issue for India because it imports 90 per cent of its domestic consumption.

India has also managed to maintain fairly good links on both sides. When the war started, India was able to get Indian students out of Ukraine safely. And recently, there have been visits by Ukrainian ministers to India.

Of course, historically, India has much stronger links with Russia. And that is likely to continue.

How has the war impacted China, which announced a “friendship without limits” with Russia?

The China-Russia relationship is stronger today, and trade has gone up too. China benefited by buying a lot of Russian crude, available, presumably, at a discount.

In strategic terms, China has been a gainer, because the US has been distracted. What is happening in Ukraine and now in Gaza keeps the US away from the Indo-Pacific and its containment policy of China, which Beijing would be quite happy about.

Had the US not been distracted, what would it have done with regard to China?

While the concrete plans are difficult to lay out, the United States would probably have undertaken steps to squeeze China militarily, maybe by supplying arms to Taiwan . Today, if the Chinese decide to move against Taiwan, would the United States have the capacity to fight a third war? Not that I think China is interested in militarily moving against Taiwan, but I think the Taiwanese would be looking for that kind of reassurance.

The second would be a greater focus on economic policy. The US has announced the desire to try and restrict the kind of technologies that go to China, but there is no consensus on that yet. For example, they still need to convince the Europeans to fully subscribe to that policy.

Two years of war later, how could the third year turn out? When might the war end, and how?

It is unlikely that Russia intends to take over all of Ukraine. So the question would be to try and understand what the Russians would consider to be a victory, and what such a victory would mean for the Americans and for Ukraine.

Second, I do not expect any peace talks to take place this year at least. If anything [like peace talks] starts, it will be next year.

At present, Ukraine’s peace plans and Russia’s peace plans are in contradiction. Ukraine’s peace plans are fundamentally premised on a return to the 1991 border, which is not acceptable to Russia. Russia incorporated Crimea in 2014 and, more recently, it has taken large chunks of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhia. The Russians are not likely to accept any negotiation on these territories.

However, Putin has said that he is willing to negotiate. I suspect the Russians feel negotiations will only be meaningful if the Americans are involved in them. The Russian story is that this is a proxy war with the West, with NATO. So if at all negotiations are to be held, NATO would have to be present.

Nandan Unnikrishnan is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, and one of India’s foremost experts on Russia. He spoke to Yashee.

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Why are South Asians going to fight in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Young men from India, Nepal and Sri Lanka are on the front lines of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Young men from South Asia joined the Russian army in its war against Ukraine after they were promised lucrative salaries and benefits.

Now, they are being deprived of their salaries and are being killed on the front lines – all escape routes are rife with hurdles.

Keep reading

‘waiting for a call from daddy’: sri lankans die in russia’s ukraine war, indians die fighting for russia in ukraine, leaving a trail of helplessness, ‘want to go home’: nepalis fighting for russia in ukraine describe horrors.

Here is more about the South Asian men fighting Russia’s war on Ukraine .

Which countries do foreign fighters in the Russia-Ukraine war come from?

Men predominantly from Nepal , India and Sri Lanka have gone to fight the war as mercenaries.

In March 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin backed the plan to allow foreign volunteers to join Russia in its war against Ukraine. Observers speculated that Russia was looking to recruit fighters from Syria. A Nepali mercenary told Al Jazeera that Nepali, Tajik and Afghan fighters are sent straight to the front line.

While the Nepali government does not have an exact number of Nepalis fighting in Russia, a foreign ministry official estimated that as many as 200 Nepalis were fighting in Russia by the end of 2023.

Some analysts estimated that about a thousand Nepali fighters have been deployed. The numbers are largely based on the complaints received by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Nepal from families of recruits, explained Santosh Sharma Poudel, a foreign policy analyst and co-founder of Nepal Institute for Policy Research.

The unofficial number of Indians fighting in Ukraine is estimated to be about 100, local media has reported.

Several Sri Lankans living in Russia told Al Jazeera that hundreds of their compatriots were now serving Russia’s military.

Why are South Asians going to fight the war?

Several men who went to fight the war told Al Jazeera the reason behind it was their financial circumstances. “My family’s economic condition is miserable so I thought this would be a good breakthrough,” said Bimal Bhandari*, a 32-year-old mercenary from Nepal.

The Sri Lankan men are not joining the war because they believe in the Russian cause, but because it is an opportunity to make money amid economic turmoil, said Gamini Viyangoda, a Sri Lankan writer, political analyst and columnist.

In Sri Lanka, the economic crisis and political disruption in 2022 resulted in a hunger crisis by 2023. Enormous foreign debts and rising inflation led to shortages of fuel, medication and food.

A retired Sri Lankan soldier, now a recruit for Russia, told Al Jazeera on the condition of anonymity that he was less worried about the prospect of losing his life by joining the Russian army than he was about the economic hardships in Sri Lanka.

Soldiers currently serving in the Sri Lankan army are also eager to leave their posts and go to Russia, if given the opportunity. A soldier told Al Jazeera that he makes a meagre $65 a month after tax deductions.

Poudel said that there is a trend among Nepalis to go abroad to the Middle East or Europe in search of lucrative income because “the average per capita income in Nepal is just around $1,000 per year.” In comparison, the advertised salary to join the Russian army is “about $4,000 a month, which is huge,” he added.

“Not all of them are getting the advertised amount, though the pay is significantly higher than what they would get over here,” said Poudel.

Which side are they fighting on?

Most South Asian recruits are fighting on the Russian lines.

However, some Sri Lankans have also fought on Ukraine’s side. After three Sri Lankan men fighting on Ukraine’s side were killed, approximately 20 others who were serving with the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine left the unit, according to Lahiru Hathurusinghe, 25, who is believed to be the only Sri Lankan still attached to the Ukrainian side.

How are South Asians recruited into the war?

South Asians looking for employment or opportunities in Europe have been being recruited through social media including calls for Nepalis, Indians and Sri Lankans to be recruited into the Russian army have been posted on TikTok.

Nepali men told Al Jazeera that when they contacted the TikTok account, they were connected to an agent running a travel agency in Nepal. Hemil Mangukiya, 23, from India’s Surat, found a job as a helper in the Russian army through a YouTube video posted by Dubai-based Faisal Khan.

The travel agencies also exacted hefty fees from the men interested in going to Russia.

A Nepali man recruited in October 2023 was charged $9,000 and in exchange was promised a monthly salary of about $3,000, along with benefits including Russian citizenship for himself and his family.

Sri Lankans were also promised monthly salaries up to $3,000 and the prospect of Russian citizenship.

Nine-year Sri Lankan military veteran, Nipuna Silva* who was already in debt, borrowed $4,000 to pay an agency that got him a job in Russia. He later joined the Russian army.

Mangukiya from Surat paid $3,600 to his recruiting agents and was offered $1,800 for a job as an assistant.

When Bhandari reached Russia, he was dropped at a recruitment camp and signed a one-year contract to fight as a soldier.

While many Nepalis headed to Russia directly from capital city Kathmandu, some were working as migrant workers in the Middle East.

How are South Asian recruits treated?

While the recruits were promised an intensive, three-month training programme, they say they received less than a month of combat drills in the Rostov region in southwestern Russia bordering Ukraine.

“I think they have been trained for very few days, in some cases not even a week,” said Poudel. “And then they are sent to the front lines, basically as expendables.”

Owing to their lack of training, Nepali men who spoke to Al Jazeera thought they would be used as backup. However, they were pushed to front lines. “The Russians just commanded us from behind. We were like their shield,” 34-year-old recruit, Ratna Karki* told Al Jazeera.

When Bhandari attempted to escape, he was caught and detained, as were many others – caught by Russia’s strict vigilance.

While Mangukiya’s parents had been assured that their son would be safe from any fighting, he was placed on the front lines.

Silva from Sri Lanka signed a one-year contract in January and on February 19, his wife received a $1,640 payment from Russia. Days later, she found out that Silva had died in a drone attack.

At least five Sri Lankan recruits have died in the war. At least 12 Nepalis have been killed, and five others captured by Ukraine. At least two Indians have been killed on Ukrainian front lines.

What is the solution?

Nepali police have already arrested people accused of smuggling men to Russia, based on tip-offs.

The Foreign Ministry in Nepal has maintained contact with the Russian government as it attempts to repatriate recruits from Nepal, as well as retrieve dead bodies. Additionally, the ministry has urged Russia to provide financial compensation to the families of the deceased.

Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi told reporters that on March 8, the Central Bureau of Investigation “busted a major human trafficking network conducting searches in several cities and collecting incriminating materials. A case of human trafficking has been registered against several agents.”

New Delhi-based international lawyer and researcher, Aakash Chandran told Al Jazeera that the Indian government should repatriate the Indian citizens who joined the Russian army voluntarily, alongside those who were forced into the army.

The government is obliged to investigate and prosecute those citizens for any commission of international crime, including war crimes committed in Ukraine during their participation in armed conflict on behalf of Russia, “a country with which India is at peace”.

Chandran added that those who signed up to work as army helpers or porters, but were duped and pushed to the front lines, must be accorded the status of “prisoners of war” if captured by the Ukrainian army as per Geneva Conventions.

He said that for those unwillingly duped or forced into armed service, any contract signed is not enforceable.

However, for the people who voluntarily signed one-year contracts, things are a bit more complex.

The question becomes more diplomatic than legal, and it depends on how much the state is willing to make the case for repatriation.

Poudel said that it is also difficult to repatriate every Nepali who has gone, because some of them “go through illicit channels to Russia”.

He added that the preventive measures taken by Nepali authorities may have reduced the number of Nepalis joining the war in Ukraine, but  have not stopped the flow entirely.

“In the longer term, I think as far as there are little economic opportunities at home, people would want to go abroad, seeking, better payment, better jobs and a better life. And that’s very hard to control,” said Poudel.

“Therefore, I think, in the longer term, there’s no alternative to creating opportunities at home.”

*Some names have been changed to protect the identities of individuals worried about their safety.

We need to start worrying about the bomb

The horror of a nuclear attack would be unimaginable. the impact would last generations. and all of it is eminently feasible with only a fraction of the weapons that already exist in the world..

Late last month, the venerable Gallup company released a survey listing the most pressing concerns in the United States. Predictably topping the list were inflation and crime, followed by hunger and homelessness, the economy broadly, and the high cost of health care. Farther back were things like illegal immigration, drug use, and the environment.

Nowhere listed was the threat of nuclear war.

Similarly, a Pew survey of the nation’s top policy priorities released in February found that the economy, terrorism, money in politics, health care costs, and education led the way. Again, nuclear proliferation and nuclear war did not make it into the top 20.

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Nor did the subject arise in President Biden’s policy-filled State of the Union address in February. Despite the ever-present danger of nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula and in South Asia, and despite the not-so-veiled threats from President Vladimir Putin of Russia to use “tactical” nuclear weapons in his war on Ukraine, the main mention of “weapons” in Biden’s more than 7,000-word speech was preceded by “assault,” not “nuclear.”

How is it that the most clear and present danger to humankind — a danger even more immediate than climate change and more devastating by magnitudes than mass migration, inflation, crime, or terrorism — is so completely out of sight and mind for the vast majority of Americans?

Credit The New York Times, then, for forcefully addressing the dangers of nuclear war in a package of editorials last month. Titled “At the Brink,” the editorials starkly depict the shocking speed with which entire cities would be turned into smoldering, radioactive ruins in the event of nuclear warfare. The horror would be unimaginable. The impact would last generations. And all of it is eminently feasible with only a fraction of the weapons that already exist in the world.

There are glimmers of hope that The Times is not alone in sounding the alarm. The Oscar-winning film “Oppenheimer” has helped raise awareness, as has Annie Jacobsen’s book “Nuclear War: A Scenario,” a fictionalized account of a nuclear exchange spinning out of control that is based on extensive interviews with military officials, nuclear strategists, and disaster responders. One of those officials, the former head of STRATCOM , the Pentagon command that oversees nuclear weapons, told her “that the world could end in the next couple of hours.”

“Nuclear War” has reportedly been optioned for a film to be directed by Denis Villeneuve, of Dune fame. We can only hope that it is every bit as nerve-rattling as the 1983 film, “The Day After,” which debuted a year after one million people gathered in New York City’s Central Park to call for nuclear disarmament.

Those days of protest are long gone. First the United States and Soviet Union negotiated massive reductions in their nuclear stockpiles, then the Soviet Union collapsed. Fears of nuclear holocaust faded like the dying embers of Moscow’s empire.

And yet: Even if there are fewer weapons today, more countries have them, making the possibility of regional nuclear conflicts involving, say, India and Pakistan, or North Korea and South Korea, very real. Moreover, fewer weapons do not equate to reduced lethality. The world still has more than enough bombs to destroy itself several times over.

At the same time, China is expanding its stockpile aggressively , though it remains well behind Russia and the United States, which have more than 5,000 warheads each. Russia meanwhile has continued developing so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons that, though less powerful than the largest of bombs, could still wreck a city. And Iran remains perilously close to having enough enriched uranium to build its first bomb.

“The nuclear shadow that loomed over humanity last century has returned with a vengeance,” United Nations Secretary General António Guterres said in February. “The nuclear risk is higher than at any moment since the depths of the Cold War.”

The problem is too big and too complex for simple solutions. But the next president could start by urging Russia to return to the negotiating table and extend the last of the world’s nuclear treaties, the New START Treaty . The treaty, which sets limits on the number of strategic weapons the two countries can deploy, is set to expire in 2026 and Putin has shown little inclination to extend it.

The Times recommended considering several additional measures, including: renouncing the use of nuclear weapons based solely on reports of an adversary’s nuclear attack on the United States; reconsidering the president’s unilateral authority to use nuclear force; stringently limiting the use of artificial intelligence in nuclear launch processes; and improving communications with Russia and China, lest misinformation or disinformation send the world spiraling toward an apocalyptic crisis. These all seem worth robust debate.

They are just a start, though. The United States could also lower, or at least avoid raising, the temperature on global tensions by not doing “anything stupid,” argues Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. Bad ideas — some of them being kicked around in Congress now — include building more and bigger weapons or pledging to deploy weapons closer to our adversaries. Neither, he contends, will deter our adversaries from building more weapons, and so Biden and Donald Trump would do well to avoid tough nuclear talk on the campaign trail.

“These aren’t sexy things you can sell to the public,” Kristensen said. “But it’s what we need. Because we’re walking in the desert right now.”

But the American public should arguably play the most important role, by demanding attention to the threat of nuclear war with the same vigor it demands, rightfully, action on climate change. That kind of mass movement four decades ago probably helped push the consummate cold warrior, Ronald Reagan , to negotiate major arms control agreements with the Soviet Union. It isn’t crazy to think the same could happen again with a President Biden — or even Trump.

What would be crazy is ignoring a threat that is so plainly in front of us. Consider the words of the late Daniel Ellsberg, who before he became famous for leaking the Pentagon Papers was a nuclear planner for the military.

In 2017, he called all-out thermonuclear war “a catastrophe waiting to happen” and “an irreversible, unprecedented, and almost unimaginable calamity for civilization” on a scale “infinitely greater” than the nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl, Hurricane Katrina, and other massive disasters.

“No policies in human history,” he wrote, “have more deserved to be recognized as immoral. Or insane.”

Editorials represent the views of the Boston Globe Editorial Board. Follow us @GlobeOpinion .

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