phd topics in monetary economics

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99 Monetary Economics Research Topics | Thesis Ideas

By Adam Oct 8, 2023 in Economics , Monetary Economics | No Comments

Are you a student pursuing a degree in monetary economics and looking for the research topics that will both intrigue you and contribute to the field of monetary economics? You’ve come to the right place. Monetary economics, also known as financial economics or monetary theory, the study of how money and financial systems impact the […]

Are you a student pursuing a degree in monetary economics and looking for the research topics that will both intrigue you and contribute to the field of monetary economics? You’ve come to the right place.

Monetary economics, also known as financial economics or monetary theory, the study of how money and financial systems impact the broader economy, offers a wealth of fascinating research opportunities. Whether you’re an undergraduate, master’s, or doctoral candidate, selecting the right research topic is crucial, and we’re here to help you explore a diverse range of themes and issues within this dynamic field. Join us as we delve into the world of monetary economics and present you with a curated list of research topics that will inspire your thesis journey.

Let’s uncover the complexities of monetary policy, financial markets, and economic stability while examining the impact of corporate governance and much more. Get ready to embark on an intellectual adventure in the realm of financial economics.

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A list of monetary economics research topics:

The following is a list of current research topics in monetary economics:

Evaluating the role of digital currencies in reshaping the future of monetary systems.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on income inequality and wealth distribution.

Evaluating the role of monetary policy in mitigating financial market volatility.

Investigating the effects of exchange rate regimes on international trade competitiveness.

The impact of monetary policies on exchange rate fluctuations and impact on global trade.

The impact of monetary policy on the real sector: Evidence from emerging markets.

Home production, economic structures and financial prosperity- What is the link?

Post-COVID-19 implications for central bank policies and monetary stability.

Evaluating the role of central banks in promoting financial stability and systemic risk mitigation.

Evaluating the role of central bank credibility in anchoring inflation expectations.

Assessing the effectiveness of capital controls in managing financial crises.

The interaction between uncertain conditions and knowledge to manage monetary transactions.

Investigating the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign direct investment.

Studying monetary economics through the environment of global trade.

The effect of globalization and global monetary policies on exports from emerging economies.

The impact of monetary policy on exchange rate dynamics and international trade.

Evaluating the role of central banks in promoting financial inclusion and digital currencies.

Assessing the impact of monetary policy on international capital flows.

The impact of monetary policy on the banking sector’s profitability and stability.

Assessing the effectiveness of forward guidance in communicating central bank intentions.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on household savings and investment.

Assessing the effectiveness of negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool.

The role of financial intermediaries in environments with high price fluctuations.

Evaluating the role of monetary policy in addressing climate change risks and sustainability.

Assessing the effectiveness of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework.

Investigating the link between monetary policy and housing market dynamics in the UK.

The influence of inflation targeting on macroeconomic stability in emerging economies.

A review of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on international portfolio diversification.

The impact of monetary policy on corporate investment decisions and economic growth.

Post-COVID-19 implications for monetary policy rules and framework revisions.

Post-COVID-19 challenges and innovations in digital payment systems.

Evaluating the role of macroprudential policies in safeguarding financial stability.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on the stability of emerging market economies.

Assessing the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies during financial crises.

The capacity of inflation to be affected by changes in monetary policies and regimes.

Investigating the impact of monetary policy on international financial crises.

Evaluating the role of monetary policy in addressing financial market bubbles.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on the banking sector’s risk-taking behavior.

A review of currency substitution and its implications for monetary policy.

A review of financial market frictions and their implications for monetary policy.

The influence of exchange rate regimes on economic growth and monetary policy effectiveness.

The impact of central bank communication on financial market expectations.

Investigating the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on international investment.

Post-COVID-19 implications for monetary policy coordination and global economic governance.

A review of the Taylor rule and its applicability in contemporary monetary policy.

Investigating the sustainability of digital currencies and their impact on monetary systems.

The impact of monetary policy on cross-border banking activities and systemic risks.

Analyzing the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade balances.

Evaluating the role of monetary policy forward guidance in shaping interest rate expectations.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on credit market conditions and lending rates.

The Euro and its contribution to political and monetary stability.

Investigating the effects of monetary policy on capital flows in emerging economies.

Monetary policy, local production and employee participation- establishing a relationship.

Assessing the effectiveness of currency unions in managing exchange rate risk and trade.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on income inequality in the United Kingdom.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on government bond yields.

Assessing the effectiveness of forward exchange rate markets in forecasting currency movements.

Post-COVID-19 challenges and innovations in digital currency adoption and regulation.

The impact of monetary policy on financial stability and the risk of systemic crises.

Analyzing the effects of currency pegs on exchange rate stability and economic growth.

The mechanism of exchange rates in global currency exchange- understanding the economics.

Analyzing the monetary regimes of developing economies.

Investigating the effects of monetary policy on income inequality and poverty reduction.

The role of Central Banks in influencing monetary policies.

Evaluating the role of blockchain technology in enhancing transparency in monetary transactions.

A review of financial market reactions to central bank announcements.

Investigating the relationship between monetary policy and sovereign debt dynamics.

Assessing the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools in deflationary environments.

Investigating the effects of currency crises on financial market contagion.

A study of household economics based on monetary policy and employee participation in national productivity.

The impact of monetary policy on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) access to credit.

The impact of monetary policy on the real estate market and housing affordability.

A study of monetary integration in the EU and implications for the UK.

Post inflation activity levels- a commentary on anticipated and actual output levels.

Investigating the relationship between monetary policy and sovereign credit ratings.

National recovery after periods of inflation- literature review.

Investigating the effects of monetary policy on exchange rate misalignments.

What have we learned from past inflation periods for securing our future?

The impact of monetary policy on international financial market integration.

A review of the effectiveness of quantitative easing as a monetary policy tool.

A review of monetary policy communication strategies and their effects on financial markets.

Evaluating the role of monetary policy in addressing financial market liquidity crises.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on commodity price fluctuations and resource-rich economies.

Post-COVID-19 implications for currency exchange rate regimes and trade dynamics.

Investigating the effects of monetary policy on the labor market and unemployment rates.

A review of the cycle credit costs in creation of national monetary policies and the impact of policies on national productivity.

Investigating the relationship between monetary policy and financial market stability.

A study of mortgages in relation to monetary policy.

The impact of income inequality on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

A study of national policy, monetary regimes and impact on inflation.

Analyzing the effects of financial market developments on monetary policy effectiveness.

Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on the real sector: Evidence from emerging markets.

Evaluating the role of monetary policy in addressing income redistribution.

Assessing the effectiveness of currency stabilization funds in managing exchange rate volatility.

The impact of the UK referendum to leave the EU on the national economy- a review.

Assessing the impact of monetary policy on foreign direct investment and economic development.

Analyzing the relationship between monetary policy and asset price bubbles.

A review of monetary policy transmission channels and their importance in policy effectiveness.

A review of financial innovations and their implications for monetary policy.

Assessing the effectiveness of liquidity traps and unconventional monetary policy measures.

There you go. Use the list of monetary economics thesis topics well and let us know if you have any comments or suggestions for our topics related blog posts for the future or looking to get help with dissertation writing , send us an email at [email protected] .

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Curriculum and Thesis

In their first and second years, PhD students are required to complete a series of core classes, coursework in their major and minor fields of study, and an advanced research methods course before proceeding to the thesis-writing stage.

Core courses

Students must satisfy the requirements in at least 10 of 12 half-semester first-year core courses (14.384 and 14.385 are considered second-year courses). The requirements can be met by earning a grade of B or better in the class or by passing a waiver exam.

Waiver exams are offered at the start of the semester in which the course is offered and graded on a pass-fail basis. Students who receive a grade of B- or below in a class can consult the course faculty to determine whether to take the waiver exam or re-take the course the following year. These requirements must all be satisfied before the end of the second year.

Course list

• 14.121: Microeconomic Theory I
• 14.122: Microeconomic Theory II
• 14.123: Microeconomic Theory III
• 14.124: Microeconomic Theory IV
• 14.380: Statistical Methods in Economics
• 14.381: Estimation and Inference for Linear Causal and Structural Models
• 14.382*: Econometrics
• 14.384*: Time Series Analysis (2nd year course)
• 14.385*: Nonlinear Econometric Analysis (2nd year course)
• 14.451: Dynamic Optimization Methods with Applications
• 14.452: Economic Growth
• 14.453: Economic Fluctuations
• 14.454: Economic Crises

*Courses 14.382, 14.384, and 14.385 are each counted as two half-semester courses.

Most students will also take one or more field courses (depending on whether they are waiving core courses) during their first year. Feel free to ask your graduate research officer, field faculty, and advanced students for advice on how you structure your first-year coursework.

Second year students must also successfully complete the two-semester course 14.192: Advanced Research Methods and Communication. The course, which is graded on a pass-fail basis, guides students through the process of writing and presenting the required second-year research paper.

Major field requirement

By the end of year two, PhD students must complete the requirements for two major fields in economics. This entails earning a B or better in two designated courses for each field. Some fields recommend additional coursework or papers for students intending to pursue research in the field.

Major fields must be declared by the Monday following the spring break of your second year. Your graduate registration officer must approve your field selections.

Minor field requirement

PhD students are also required to complete two minor fields, taking two courses in each field and earning a grade of B or better. Your graduate registration officer must approve your field selections.

Minor coursework is normally completed by the end of year two, but in some cases students can defer the completion of one field until after general exams. Students must consult with their graduate registration officer before making a deferment.

Options for minor fields include the eleven economics major fields, plus computation and statistics (from the interdisciplinary PhD in Economics and Statistics).

Students who wish to satisfy one of the minor field requirements by combining two courses from different fields–for example, environmental economics and industrial organization II–can petition the second-year graduate registration officer for permission.

At least one minor field should be from the department’s standard field list.

The fields in which the Department offers specialization and the subjects that will satisfy their designation as a minor field are given in the chart below. Some fields overlap so substantially that both cannot be taken by a student. In any event, the same subject cannot be counted towards more than a single minor field. Students must receive the approval of their Graduate Registration Officer for their designated major and minor fields.

List of fields

• Development
• Econometrics
• Industrial organization
• International
• Macroeconomics
• Organizational
• Political economy
• Public finance
• Computation and statistics (minor only)

Subjects satisfying major and minor requirements

Advanced economic theory.

Minor: Any subset adding up to two full semesters from 14.125, 14.126, 14.127, 14.130, 14.137, 14.147, 14.160, 14.281 and Harvard Ec 2059. Major: At least two of 14.125, 14.126, 14.281, and Harvard Ec 2059. Recommended for major: 14.126, 14.281, and at least one of 14.125, 14.127, 14.130, 14.147, and Harvard Ec 2059.

Econometrics and Statistics

Minor: 14.382 in addition to one of 14.384 or 14.385. Major: Any one of 14.386, 14.387, 14.388 in addition to one of 14.384 or 14.385. Recommended for major: 14.384 and 14.385. *Dual PhD in Economics and Statistics has an additional requirement of 14.386.

Economic Development

Major and minor: 14.771 and 14.772 or 14.773

Minor: Any two of 14.416J, 14.440J, 14.441J, 14.442J, 14.448. Major: 14.416J and 14.441J

Industrial Organization

Minor: 14.271 and 14.272 or 14.273. Major: 14.271 and 14.272 or 14.273. Recommended for major: 14.271, 14.272, and 14.273.

International Economics

Major and minor: 14.581 and 14.582

Labor Economics

Major: 14.661 and 14.662A. Minor: Two subjects chosen from 14.193, 14.661, and 14.662

Monetary Economics

Major and minor: Two subjects chosen from 14.461, 14.462, and 14.463

Organizational Economics

Major and minor: 14.282 and one of 14.283-284, 14.441J, or an approved substitute

Political Economy

Major and minor: 14.770 and 14.773

Public Economics

Major and minor: 14.471 and 14.472

General exams

MIT requires doctoral candidates to complete an advanced course of study that includes general exams at its completion. Beginning in 2019-20, the Economics Department will operationalize this requirement to include successful completion of: the core and other required courses; course exams and other requirements of courses in each of a student’s two major and two minor fields; the written research paper and oral presentation components of 14.192. Students may present for the general exams while having one remaining minor field to complete. The faculty will review these components together with the candidate’s overall course record to determine whether students have passed the general exam requirement and can proceed to the thesis writing stage.

Typical course schedule

Math Camp begins on the second Monday in August.

Fall Semester

14.121/14.122 (Micro Theory I/II) 14.451/14.452 (Macro Theory I/II) 14.380/14.381 (Statistical Method in Economics & Applied Econometrics) Field Course (major or minor)

Spring Semester

14.123/14.124 (Micro Theory III/IV) 14.453/14.454 (Macro Theory III/IV) 14.382 (Econometrics) Field Course (major or minor)

2-3 Field Courses 14.192 (Advanced Research and Communication) 14.384  or  14.385 (Advanced Econometrics)

3 Field Courses 14.192 (Advanced Research and Communication)

Years 3 and up

Field workshop Field lunch Thesis writing

Upon satisfying the core and field requirements, PhD candidates embark on original research culminating in a completed dissertation. A PhD thesis normally consists of three research papers of publishable quality. The thesis must be approved by a student’s primary and secondary thesis advisors, and by an anonymous third reader. These three faculty members will be the candidate's thesis committee and are responsible for its acceptance. Collaborative work is acceptable and encouraged, but there must be at least one paper in the dissertation without a co-author who was a faculty member when the research started.

Criteria for satisfactory progress

Third-year students.

• Meet regularly with their advisor
• Participate consistently in their primary field advising lunch, their primary field workshop, and the third-year student research lunch
• Complete their third-year paper
• Participate in third-year meetings organized by the thesis graduate research officer

Students should present on their research in progress at least once in both the third-year student research lunches and their field advising lunch. Presentations provide opportunities for early and broad feedback on research ideas and the chance to develop oral presentation skills. Research ideas or early stage work in progress is encouraged and expected.

Fourth-year and later students

• Participate consistently in their primary field advising lunch and their primary field workshop
• Present at least once per year in their field advising lunch or field workshop. A presentation each semester in the field advising lunch is strongly recommended by most fields; consult your advisors for more information

Satisfactory progress toward a dissertation will be evaluated based on progress assessments by the student’s primary advisor, regular participation in the lunches and workshops, and field lunch or workshop presentations that show continued progress.

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The Ph.D. Program in the Department of Economics at Harvard is addressed to students of high promise who wish to prepare themselves in teaching and research in academia or for responsible positions in government, research organizations, or business enterprises. Students are expected to devote themselves full-time to their programs of study.

The program prepares students for productive and stimulating careers as economists. Courses and seminars offered by the department foster an intellectually active and stimulating environment. Each week, the department sponsors more than 15 different seminars on such topics as environmental economics, economic growth and development, monetary and fiscal policy, international economics, industrial organization, law and economics, behavioral economics, labor economics, and economic history. Top scholars from both domestic and international communities are often invited speakers at the seminars.  The Harvard community outside of the department functions as a strong and diverse resource. Students in the department are free to pursue research interests with scholars throughout the University. Faculty of the Harvard Law School, Kennedy School of Government, and Harvard Business School, for example, are available to students for consultation, instruction, and research guidance. As a member of the Harvard community, students in the department can register for courses in the various schools and have access to the enormous library resources available through the University. There are over 90 separate library units at Harvard, with the total collections of books and pamphlets numbering over 13 million.  Both the department and the wider University draw some of the brightest students from around the world, which makes for a student body that is culturally diverse and likely unequaled in the range of intellectual interests of its members. These factors combine to add an important dimension to the educational process. Students are able to learn from one another, collaborate on research projects and publications, and form bonds that are not broken by distance once the degree is completed and professional responsibilities lead them in different directions.

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Ph.D. Program in Economics

Graduates have exceptional research training in economic theory and the quantitative tools required for innovative research on complex economic problems..

The purpose of the Ph.D. program in Economics is to educate scientists who will advance the frontiers of economic knowledge through research and teaching.

The program is designed to provide students with sound training in economic theory, and the quantitative tools required for innovative research on economic problems. Equally important, the program is structured to allow students both time and guidance for research activities.

The goal of the doctoral program in economics is to help students learn to do original, creative research. Unlike most graduate programs in economics, we have chosen not to impose rigid course requirements on students. Instead, we emphasize involving students in research early in their graduate careers. Students in the doctoral program in economics at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon take courses in order to learn the fundamental principles of economic theory underlying all areas of application, and to master the analytic and modeling techniques of the practicing research economist. In-depth knowledge of specialized areas is required as a by-product of research activity.

At the completion of the Ph.D. program in economics at the Tepper School, a student should have mastered the fundamental principles of economic theory and the quantitative tools required for basic and applied research. Additionally, the student should have attained a level of skill in research techniques which will serve as the basis for continued self-development.

• Students are expected to obtain knowledge of substantive research areas by taking elective courses, attending and participating in seminars, working with the faculty, and reading research papers.
• Students are urged to actively involve themselves in the intellectual life of the school.
• Seminars are a fundamental mechanism for exchange of information throughout the profession, and they are an essential professional activity of a successful research economist.
• Students should plan to attend weekly seminars throughout their stay at the business school.

Research Topics

• Real Business Cycles
• Expectations and Indeterminacy of Monetary Equilibrian Experimental Economies
• Consistent Incentive Mechanism (Contract) Design
• Corporate Financial Policy Under Asymmetric Information
• Bargaining Foundations of Product Innovation
• Variation in Wages and Hours of Work Over the Business Cycle
• Individual Adjustment to Changing Labor Markets
• The Distribution of Income Within and Across Households
• The Results of Deregulation
• Macroeconomic Policy
• International Trade Policy
• Female Labor Supply and Fertility
• The Economics Behind Marketing "New and Improving" Products
• Risk Analysis and Management
• Estimation and Inference for Dynamic Economic Models
• The Duration of Interorganizational Relationships
• The Endogeneity of Appropriability and R&D Investment

P lease visit our Ph.D. Student Profiles page t o view the profiles of our current doctoral candidates.

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PhD research topics

Applications are welcomed in all Economics topics. We particularly welcome applications from candidates with research interests in the following speciality areas of our research-active staff:

Behavioural Economics

• Behavioural Health Economics and Policy
• Behavioural Labour and Organisational Economics
• Decisions under Risk and Uncertainty
• Experimental and Behavioural analyses of markets
• Charitable Behaviour
• Analysis of Conflict and Conflict Resolution
• Behavioural Welfare Economics (including subjective wellbeing)

Financial Economics and Household Finance

• Banking and financial stability
• Household portfolios
• Household wealth inequality
• Household saving
• Household financial vulnerability and asset accumulation

Gender, Race and Inequality

• Domestic violence
• Discrimination and Wellbeing
• Identity Economics (gender, ethnicity, inequality)
• Wealth inequality and racial wealth gap
• Affirmative Action Policies

Health Economics

• Healthcare and demographics
• Health, wellbeing and employment
• Long-run impact of COVID
• Aversion to inequality in multidimensional wellbeing
• Health state valuation and stated preferences

Industrial Organization 

• Competition Policy
• Innovation, industrial policy and mixed markets
• Networks and Regulation
• Firms Productivity
• Tax compliance and administration

International Economics and Development

• Empirical development economics
• Foreign aid and development finance institutions
• Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth
• Trade models with heterogeneous firms, trade gravity and productivity growth
• Trade policies and public economics

Labour and Education Economics

• Empirical studies on the relationships between labour, health and wellbeing
• Education Economics
• Gender differences in human capital accumulation
• Labour market transitions of (young) workers
• Social mobility
• Vocational education
• Wages, employment and contract type

Macroeconomics

• Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Business Cycles
• Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modelling
• Labour Market Dynamics
• Search and Matching

Political Economy

• Elections, political ideology, institutions and economic policy
• Immigration: causes and consequences
• Terrorism, public attitudes and behavioural outcomes
• Rent-seeking and other contests

Time Series Econometrics

• Econometric detection of bubbles and crashes
• Specification testing and forecasting in non-linear Econometric/Time-Series models
• Theoretical econometrics and statistical inference

Urban and Environmental Economics

• Environmental economics and environmental policy 
• Environmental reporting
• Real estate economics
• Local labour markets
• Agglomeration externalities
• Spatial distribution of economic activities and innovation
• Transport economics
• Local economic impacts and drivers of internal and external immigration 
• Local and regional determinants of social mobility and inequality
• Levelling-up: drivers of local productivity and growth

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Topics in Monetary Economics and Macroeconomics

Economics 586c.

Doctoral Program

The Ph.D. program is a full time program leading to a Doctoral Degree in Economics.  Students specialize in various fields within Economics by enrolling in field courses and attending field specific lunches and seminars.  Students gain economic breadth by taking additional distribution courses outside of their selected fields of interest.

General requirements

Students  are required to complete 1 quarter of teaching experience. Teaching experience includes teaching assistantships within the Economics department or another department .

University's residency requirement

135 units of full-tuition residency are required for PhD students. After that, a student should have completed all course work and must request Terminal Graduate Registration (TGR) status.

Department degree requirements and student checklist

1. core course requirement.

Required: Core Microeconomics (202-203-204) Core Macroeconomics (210-211-212) Econometrics (270-271-272).  The Business School graduate microeconomics class series may be substituted for the Econ Micro Core.  Students wishing to waive out of any of the first year core, based on previous coverage of at least 90% of the material,  must submit a waiver request to the DGS at least two weeks prior to the start of the quarter.  A separate waiver request must be submitted for each course you are requesting to waive.  The waiver request must include a transcript and a syllabus from the prior course(s) taken.  

2.  Field Requirements

Required:  Two of the Following Fields Chosen as Major Fields (click on link for specific field requirements).  Field sequences must be passed with an overall grade average of B or better.  Individual courses require a letter grade of B- or better to pass unless otherwise noted.

Research fields and field requirements :

• Behavioral & Experimental
• Development Economics
• Econometric Methods with Causal Inference
• Econometrics
• Economic History
• Environmental, Resource and Energy Economics
• Industrial Organization
• International Trade & Finance
• Labor Economics
• Market Design
• Microeconomic Theory
• Macroeconomics
• Political Economy
• Public Economics

3.  Distribution

Required:  Four other graduate-level courses must be completed. One of these must be from the area of economic history (unless that field has already been selected above). These courses must be distributed in such a way that at least two fields not selected above are represented.  Distribution courses must be passed with a grade of B or better.

4.  Field Seminars/Workshops

Required:  Three quarters of two different field seminars or six quarters of the same field seminar from the list below.   

PhD Courses

Grs ec701 microeconomic theory.

Prereq: GRS EC705 and consent of instructor. Primarily for PhD students. Neo-classical general equilibrium theory. Topics covered include consumption, production, existence of competitive equilibrium, fundamental welfare theorems, externalities, and uncertainty.

GRS EC702 Macroeconomic Theory

Prereq: GRS EC701 and consent of instructor. Primarily for PhD students. Basic Keynesian model: consumption, investment, and money demand functions. Extension to the open economy. Determinants of money supply. Effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy. Inflation and income policy. Elementary growth models.

GRS EC703 Advanced Microeconomic Theory I

Prereq: 701, 705 or equivalent. Walrasian equilibrium: existence, uniqueness and core equivalence. Uncertainty: Arrow Debreu contingent commodities, Radner equilibrium, incomplete markets. Economics of information: rational expectations, adverse selection, signaling and screening. The principal-agent problem.

GRS EC704 Advanced Macroeconomic Theory

Prereq: GRS EC702 and consent of instructor. Primarily for PhD students. Consumption theory and evidence, investment theory and evidence, monetary theory, microfoundations of macrosystems, theory of rational expectations, models of fiscal and monetary macroeconomic policy, and employment theory and policy.

GRS EC705 Introduction to Mathematical Economics

Prereq: consent of instructor. Linear algebra, differential calculus of functions of several variables, elementary real analysis, constrained maximization, and dynamics.

GRS EC707 Advanced Statistics for Economists

Prereq: GRS EC705 or consent of instructor. Application of statistical tools, covering properties of estimators, covariance matrix and correlation, analysis of variance, hypothesis testing, likelihood functions, and likelihood ratio tests. Intended as preparation for GRS EC708.

GRS EC708 Advanced Econometrics I

Prereq: GRS EC705 and EC707. Basic course of econometric theory for MAPE/PhD students. Covers the theory and applications of the LS and ML estimators of the linear single equations models. OLS, GLS, and Gauss-Markov theorem, autocorrelation, heteroscedesticity, nonlinear estimators, distributed lags, errors in variables, instrumental variable estimators, choice models. Introduction to simultaneous equation models.

GRS EC709 Advanced Econometrics II

Prereq: GRS EC708 or consent of instructor. Advanced course for second-year PhD students who have a solid knowledge of basic econometric methods. Covers estimation and simulation of simultaneous equation models and some selected topics in multivariate analysis.

GRS EC711 Advanced Topics in Econometrics

Prereq: GRS EC709 and consent of instructor. Discusses, in abstract fashion, approaches to estimation and inference that are most often used in econometrics, including maximum likelihood and method of moments; recent developments in econometrics that allow one to overcome some of the shortcomings in using the standard approaches to estimation. Main emphasis on cross-sectional applications with some mention of time series applications and further discussions of specification analysis and testing.

GRS EC712 Time Series Econometrics

Prereq: GRS EC708 or consent of instructor. The course first presents the standard theory of stationary stochastic processes: models, estimation in the time and frequency domain, spectral analysis, asymptotic distribution, Kalman filter; VAR models. The second part deals with nonstationary processes (i.e., unit roots) and discusses such topics as functional central limit theorem, asymptotic results with unit roots, tests for unit roots, estimation and tests in cointegrated systems, models with structural changes.

GRS EC716 Game Theory

Prereq: GRS EC705 or a course in real analysis. Introduction to noncooperative and cooperative games with applications in the social sciences.

GRS EC717 Advanced Topics in Microeconomic Theory I

Prereq: consent of instructor. Topics in advanced microeconomic theory to be selected by course instructors. Critical analysis of key papers in the literature.

GRS EC718 Advanced Topics in Microeconomic Theory II

Prereq: GRS EC703 or consent of instructor. Topics in advanced microeconomic theory to be selected by course instructors. Critical analysis of key papers in the literature.

GRS EC721 Topics in Development Economics

Prereq: GRS EC701, EC702, EC703 and EC704 or consent of instructor. Examines the economic development of nations from the perspectives of their relationship with the global economy, to identify issues that are central to economic development in the world economy, and to provide analytical methods for analyzing these issues and formulating policy. Evidence on these issues from Africa, Asia, and Latin America are examined. Some topics to be covered: the role of international trade in economic growth; trade between developed and developing countries; public and private foreign capital; research and development and technology transfer; exchange rate regimes and capital flight.

GRS EC722 Topics in Economic Development II

Prereq: 701, 703, 708 or equivalents. This course covers a range of topics on failures of markets and governance in developing countries. Recent research papers including both theoretical and empirical analysis are discussed, including class presentations by students. Topics include credit and insurance market imperfections; implications for investment, inequality and growth; social networks and social learning. Models of political economy and government accountability, with applications to land reform, decentralization, education, tax policy, and role of the media.

GRS EC731 Market Organization and Public Policy

Prereq: GRS EC701 or EC703. Analytical foundations of public policy toward market organization. Theoretical emphasis on imperfect competition, theory of the firm, and markets with incomplete information. Implications for policy in developed and less-developed countries.

GRS EC732 Topics in Industrial Organization

Prereq: consent of instructor. Topics vary from year to year and may include the economics of contracting and the firm, the economics of regulation, and dynamic models of oligopoly.

GRS EC741 Topics in Macroeconomics and Monetary Theory

Prereq: GRS EC701, EC702, or consent of instructor. Alternative views of demand and supply of money and financial assets. Analytical theories of monetary policy. Problems in the exercise of monetary policy.

GRS EC742 Applied Macroeconomics

Prereq: GRS EC704, EC708, and consent of instructor. Empirical specification of macroeconomic functions including measuring variables, lag structures, and functional forms; estimation and simulation of multiple equation macro models; and use of models for optimal policy design and positive policy prognosis.

GRS EC744 Economic Dynamics

Prereq: consent of instructor. Introduces the theory and application of dynamic optimization and equillibrium analysis, with emphasis on computational methods and techniques. Covers discrete and continuous time models in both deterministic and stochastic environments.

GRS EC745 Macroeconomics and Financial Markets

Prereq: consent of instructor. The course covers recent developments in utility-based asset pricing theory with applications to stocks, bonds and currencies. It integrates macroeconomic and financial theories and their empirical evaluations, focusing on tests and consequences of asset returns’ predictability.

GRS EC751 Topics in Labor Economics I

Prereq: consent of instructor. A survey course which combines an examination of all the major fields in labor market analysis with a comprehensive treatment of methodological topics. Designed to provide the tools necessary to begin a thesis in the field. Topics covered in depth include unemployment, wage setting models, human capital models, and labor motility.

GRS EC752 Topics in Labor Economics II

Prereq: GRS EC701 and consent of instructor. Considers models which explain the origins and persistence of differences in incomes between individuals, groups, and regions. Draws on literatures in applied microeconomic theory, labor economics, development economics, public finance, and social choice theory. Discusses topics at the juncture of economics and sociology which bear on the theme of inequality.

GRS EC761 Public Finance

Prereq: GRS EC701 or consent of instructor. The theory of excess burden; optimal taxation; static, dynamic, and interregional tax incidence; public goods; externalities; corporate taxation; dynamic fiscal policy; and cost-benefit analysis. Extensive use of calculus.

GRS EC762 Topics in Applied Public Finance

Prereq: GRS EC701 and EC702, or consent of instructor. Theory and practice of benefit-cost analysis and other similar techniques for evaluating investment projects. Emphasis on sources of divergence between public and private investment decisions through the estimation of shadow prices in a context of market distortions and disequilibrium. Case studies applying theoretical approach.

GRS EC764 Topics in Economic History

Grs ec781 health economics i.

Prereq: GRS EC701 or consent of instructors. Advanced concepts of health economics, covering classic problems of uncertainty, moral hazard, adverse selection, and agency problems. US and foreign settings considered The primary focus is on understanding the implications of incentives on individual agents without worrying about market interactions.

GRS EC782 Health Economics II

Prereq: GRS EC701 and EC708 or consent of instructor. Advanced concepts of health economics, emphasizing the market interactions and diverse institutions. Developed and developing country experience is examined. Households, individuals, providers and insurers are all considered from both theoretical and empirical perspective.

GRS EC791 International Trade

Prereq: GRS EC701 and consent of instructor. Pure theory of international trade. Analysis of various models that determine comparative advantage. Welfare effects of trade. Emphasis is placed on the use of formal models to analyze tariffs, quotas, and subsidies. Analysis of trade under various competitive frameworks.

GRS EC792 International Finance

Prereq: GRS EC791 or consent of instructor. Extension of important topics introduced in GRS EC791; gains from trade and balance-of-payment adjustment under various conditions of market imperfection; effective production analysis; monetary approach to the balance-of-payment; theorems in the pure theory of trade.

GRS EC794 Financial Econometrics

Prereq: doctoral standing. For PhD students working in the area of econometrics, finance, and applied macroeconomics. Topics include prediction of asset returns, financial volatility, asset allocation, value at risk, and high frequency data analysis.

Graduate Workshops for MAPE/PhD Candidates

Grs ec901-902 dissertation workshop in macro and monetary economics.

Prereq: completion of PhD qualifying examinations. Presentation and discussion of dissertation topics and work in progress.

GRS EC903-904 Dissertation Workshop in Applied Microeconomics

Grs ec905-906 dissertation workshop in economic theory.

Directed study courses are to be arranged with individual faculty members at the time of registration. The Graduate Academic Administrator should be notified of such arrangements, including the course credit agreement, which varies.

Odd-numbered courses are offered in the fall and the first summer session. Even-numbered courses are offered in the spring and the second summer session.

GRS EC905/906 Directed Study in Economic Theory GRS EC911/912 Directed Study in Statistics and Econometrics GRS EC915/916 Directed Study in Economic Planning GRS EC921/922 Directed Study in Economic Development GRS EC931/932 Directed Study in Rural and Agricultural Development GRS EC935/936 Directed Study in the Economics of Public Enterprise GRS EC941/942 Directed Study in Money and Finance GRS EC943/944 Directed Study in Macro/Money GRS EC951/952 Directed Study in International Economics GRS EC961/962 Directed Study in Economic History GRS EC963/964 Directed Study in History of Economic Thought GRS EC965/966 Directed Study in Public Finance GRS EC971/972 Directed Study in Labor and Manpower Economics GRS EC979/980 Directed Study in Urban and Regional Economics GRS EC989/990 Directed Study in Health Economics GRS EC991/992 Directed Study in Comparative Economic Systems GRS EC995/996 Directed Study in Industrial Organization

Course Preparation for Required Examinations

The following courses are recommended as preparation for the PhD qualifying exams:  EC701, EC702, EC703, and EC704.

UCL School of Management

University college london, phd programme in financial economics.

Start date:  September 2024 Duration: 5 years (1 year MRes + 4 years PhD) Fees:  We offer fully-funded scholarships to all admitted students who have applied by the 31 January 2024 (see details below)  Application deadline:  31 January 2024, 17:00 UK time (late applications submited by the 05 April 2024 may still be considered, see details below) Entry:  Applicants must hold a distinction in a master’s degree in Economics or a closely related subject. Applicants must demonstrate a high level of analytical and quantitative skills (such as in mathematics and statistics), evidenced by strong performance in relevant modules taken on previous degree programmes and/or through relevant standardised test performance (such as GRE Quantitative of at least 160). International students, please note that UCL’s English language requirement for this programme is a ‘ Level 2 ’ (IELTS and TOEFL are the preferred test, however others on the UCL recognised test list will be accepted if required) - further details regarding this can be found on the  UCL English Language Requirements  page.

The MRes and PhD in Financial Economics is a joint programme between the UCL Department of Economics and the UCL School of Management.

The MRes programme is the first year of the five-year integrated MRes/PhD programme in Financial Economics. The MRes programme will provide you with training in research methods together with an advanced understanding of financial economics, to enable you to conduct insightful and original PhD level research in financial economics. 

The MRes will firstly provide quantitative training in microeconomics, macroeconomics, econometrics, and finance. These will be taught in the context of cutting-edge research and relevant applications. Secondly, it will provide you with analytic frameworks and transferable skills that will allow you to identify relevant and promising research topics, present ideas in order to obtain feedback, and provide feedback yourself. 

The subsequent years (for students who progress from the MRes to MPhil) will focus on the skills you will need to run research projects to completion and to present completed research projects to various kinds of specialised audiences. Likewise, teaching skills will also be developed.

PhD Structure

• The MRes programme consists of taught modules (Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, Econometrics. Real Analysis and Probability with Economic Application), a hybrid module (Financial Economics) with taught components and research based components, and a research project in the final part of the year. For the MRes project, you work under supervision to design and carry out a substantial piece of original research. This enables you to gain a deep understanding of the entire research process.
• Superior performance is required for automatic progression from MRes to MPhil. In particular, students should achieve an average mark of not less than 60% in the independent, original research components of the programme, and not less than 50% in the taught element.
• Our highly selective and small-sized PhD programme ensures that each student receives personal attention and guidance from our faculty members throughout their doctoral study. The close mentorship process forms the foundations of a successful academic career. At the same time, you will be part of both the School of Management PhD cohort and the Economics PhD cohort, with which you will share most of the taught modules.
• We expect our PhD graduates to have as their goal an academic career as a faculty member in a top business school or Economics department or in the research group of an international institution or a central bank.

Students take a total of 180 credits in the MRes year. This is made up of the MRes Research Project (MSIN0135) and 75 credits of compulsory taught modules. 

All modules in the MRes year are core modules, there are no optional modules. 

• ECON0107 - Macroeconomics, 15 credits  
• ECON0106 - Microeconomics, 15 credits  
• ECON0108 - Econometrics, 15 credits  
• ECON0118 - Real Analysis and Probability with Economic Applications, 15 credits
• MSIN0234 - Topics in Financial Economics, 30 credits  
• MSIN0135 - MRes Financial Economics Research Project, 105 credits  

The programme is delivered through a combination of lectures, seminars, and class discussion. Student performance is assessed through presentations, coursework, projects, and examinations. 

Students will study 4 compulsory taught modules. A typical taught module is taught over two terms (2 x 10 weeks) with 4 hours of contact hours per week (3 hours of lecture + 1 hour of review session). In addition, students spend approximately 6-8 hours a week for each module on assessment and independent study to further develop the skills and knowledge covered in lectures and seminars.  

Students will also undertake a substantial research project, which would usually start in Term 2 and be completed over the Summer. The total number of weekly hours will vary according to the weekly activities being undertaken.

Why choose us

What makes us different:.

Unlike many PhD Programmes in finance, our programme has a full anchor in economics and econometrics. Hence, we offer a unique world-class environment that combines the best of a leading business school, located in Canary Wharf, the heart of London’s modern financial district, and the tradition of economic research and teaching of the Department of Economics, which is located in Bloomsbury, London’s historical intellectual centre.

If you want to become an academic economist conducting research in finance, this programme is for you.  

UCL School of Management and the Department of Economics  

Founded in 2007, UCL School of Management has forged a reputation for world-leading research in management studies with 95% of the School’s research deemed to be world-leading or internationally excellent, the second highest percentage of any business school in the UK, according to the 2021 REF . The PhD programme is an integral part of our School’s active and ambitious research environment where students receive rigorous academic training and personalised research mentorship. 

The UCL Department of Economics has an outstanding international reputation in key areas of current research. The Department ranked top in the UK for research environment and outputs in the field of Economics and Econometrics in the 2021 REF . 

Our research programme offers a unique education and research experience with the intent of preparing you for scholarly careers at the highest level. Our highly selective and small-sized programme ensures that you receive personal attention and an opportunity for guidance from our world-leading scholars. The close mentorship process forms the foundations of a successful academic career. 

As a research student you will join a highly active research environment which involves frequent research seminars and visits by leading scholars worldwide, reading groups, brown bag seminars and panels in which PhD students and faculty members present and discuss their ongoing work. Such forums provide an excellent opportunity to receive critical constructive feedback on your research and to develop academic, generic and transferable skills.

Applications

Applying for our mres/phd programme.

Entry requirements and admissions criteria:

Applicants to the MRes+PhD programme must hold a distinction in a master’s degree in Economics or a closely related subject. Applicants must demonstrate a high level of analytical and quantitative skills (such as in mathematics and statistics), evidenced by strong performance in relevant modules taken on previous degree programmes and/or through relevant standardised test performance (such as GRE Quantitative of at least 160). Submitting a GRE test result is encouraged but not compulsory and is only one of the components used to assess the strength of applications. 

We only have a single intake in September. We accept applications throughout the year. Successful candidates who have submitted their MRes application by 31 January 2024 will receive a scholarship (full fee waiver plus a stipend). Successful candidates who have submitted their application after this date may receive a scholarship subject to availability, or will come with their own funding.

In your personal statement you are expected to suggest one or more faculty members as potential supervisors. On the application form you may see that it states that it is preferred that you contact potential supervisors beforehand. However, we strongly discourage applicants from contacting individual faculty members or potential supervisors when applying to our programme. All applications are first evaluated by a joint admissions committee, so contacting potential supervisors separately will not increase your chances.

We also require you to submit IELTS or TOEFL scores if English is not your first language. Our School requires a “Level 2” English language qualification which corresponds to:

IELTS: Overall grade of 7.0 with a minimum of 6.5 in each of the sub-tests.

TOEFL: Score of 96 overall, plus 24/30 in the reading and writing subtests and 22/30 in the listening and speaking subtests. 

Application Deadline

The application window closes 31 January 2024 (17:00 UK time) and a late submission window closes on 05 April 2024 (17:00 UK time). We advise those interested in the programme to apply before 31 January 2024, as those applying in the late submission window will only be considered if there are still places remaining.

Application Procedure

Apply via UCL Postgraduate Admissions System here . When starting the application, you must select the MRes Financial Economics option. In addition to filling out the online application form, please upload a copy of the following documents:

• Official Transcripts of Grades / Course marks
• A 1 page personal statement that clearly indicates: (i) your research interests and preliminary research ideas, (ii) potential faculty member(s) you may want to work with (this is a suggested list, you don’t need to contact potential supervisors beforehand), and (iii) your motivation to do a PhD.
• Your  GRE  score report, if you took the test.
• Your IELTS/TOEFL score report, if English is not your first language.

Funding/Scholarships

We offer fully funded five year scholarships to all admitted students who apply before the 31 January 2024. The scholarship is open to all nationalities. It covers all tuition fees, and includes an annual stipend of £25,000 which is tax-free. 

Successful candidates who have submitted their application after 31 January 2024 may receive a scholarship subject to availability or will come with their own funding.

Additional Costs

This programme does not have any compulsory additional costs outside of purchasing books or stationery, printing, thesis binding or photocopying.  Students may have the opportunity to participate in conferences in the UK and internationally. The UCL School of Management provides MRes/PhD students with an annual budget for conferences, which students will use to cover the travel, accommodation, food and other costs whilst at conferences, in line with UCL’s expenses policy. 

Further Information and Contact Details

The full-time MRes/PhD programme runs from September each academic year. Entrance is therefore every September. While we may accept applications until 05 April 2024 we encourage candidates to apply as early as possible. Our programme is very selective and we only admit a limited number of students, so applying before 31 January 2024 increases your chances.

How to Apply

For queries about the MRes/PhD Programme that are not addressed on our web pages, please contact [email protected] .

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Frequently Asked Questions about the UCL School of Management MRes/PhD Programme

Programme Information

Application process, admissions requirements.

Students are required to possess a “Level 2” English language qualification if it is not their first language. This means: TOEFL: Score of 96, plus 24/30 in the reading and writing, and 22/30 in the listening and speaking subtests. IELTS: Overall grade of 7.0 with a minimum of 6.5 in each of the subtests.

Further Information

If you have any other questions regarding the programme that are not addressed on our web pages please email the programme team ( [email protected] )

More about our PhD Program and our Research Associates Program

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• PhD Program

Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy and Macro-Finance

Description: The purpose of this course is to familiarize participants with some frontier techniques of modeling and forecasting in the context of topics of relevance for central banks. The course will demonstrate how advanced time series methods, including regression-based methods, vector autoregressive and factor models, can be used to address important empirical questions for monetary policy making, including modelling and forecasting inflation, as well as analyzing the effects of financial developments for economic outcomes and the transmission of financial shocks, and how macroeconomic developments influence financial markets. While a substantial fraction of the class time will be devoted to learn about the relevant estimation, inference and forecasting techniques, the course will emphasize how financial stability and monetary policy questions can be addressed using those methods. In this context the class will also cover the role of heterogeneity and nonlinearities. Reviewing the analysis of micro-level financial and nonfinancial firms’ balance sheet data as well as regional and sectoral data will provide insights from a micro, regional and sectoral perspective complementing the macro-perspective.

Literature:

Books: Clements, M. P. and D. F. Hendry (1998), "Forecasting Economic Time Series", Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Diebold, F.X. (2007) "Elements of Forecasting", Fourth Edition, Thomson, South-Western, USA Koop, G. (2003), Bayesian Econometrics, Wiley, New York. Lütkepohl, H. (2007), "Introduction to Multiple Time Series", Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany

Articles: Claessens, Stijn and M Ayhan Kose (2018), Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages, BIS Papers 95 Hendry, David F. and Kirstin Hubrich (2011), ‘Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 29(2): 216-227. Hubrich, Kirstin and Tetlow, Robert J. (2015), ‘Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises’, Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2015, Volume 70: 100–115 Hubrich, Kirstin and Dan Waggoner (2022), The transmission of financial shocks and the leverage of financial institutions: An endogenous regime switching framework, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board Stock, J.H. and Watson, M. (1999), Forecasting Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44 (2)

Time & venue: Block course between 01.12. and 15.12.2022; FU Berlin (for further details see schedule )

Exam: Graded or ungraded confirmation of course participation will be based on a term paper (100%). The term paper will provide students with the opportunity to gain experience in empirical analyses based on relevant data sets using the econometric software package EVIEWS and/or using MATLAB or R code.

More information can be found in the course syllabus .

Kirstin Hubrich (Federal Reserve Board)

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Young Economist Prize

Young economists can play an important role in shaping the future of Europe. Every year we recognise this through the Young Economist Prize, a research competition that offers talented students the chance to share their fresh perspectives on today’s challenges.

Finalists are invited to the annual ECB Forum on Central Banking, and the overall winner is awarded €10,000 .

2024 Young Economist Prize

Deadline for application: 12 February 2024

What are the topics for 2024 paper submissions?

The theme of the 2024 ECB Forum on Central Banking is “Monetary policy in an era of transformation”. Accordingly, PhD students are invited to submit papers on this theme, including the following topics:

• the rise and fall of inflation in the euro area – past, present and future
• monetary policy cycles
• euro area productivity in the short and long run
• the economics of biodiversity
• drivers of equilibrium interest rates
• geopolitical shocks and inflation

Papers on other topics relevant to euro area central banking (including monetary policy, new means of payment and payments infrastructures, the deepening of Economic and Monetary Union, the functioning of the euro area economy and financial system, financial stability, and banking regulation and supervision) were also considered.

How will we select the finalists?

The papers will be assessed using three selection criteria: (i) innovative thinking and scientific merit, (ii) relevance for ECB/euro area policies, and (iii) pertinence to the Forum theme and aforementioned topics, also taking into account the information provided in the CV and recommendation letter.

What will the finalists do at the Forum?

The selected finalists had the unique opportunity to attend the ECB Forum on Central Banking from 1 to 3 July 2024. Their research papers will be available on the ECB’s website and will be shared with all Forum participants, including policymakers, top academics and market economists from around the world.

During the Forum, the finalists will have the opportunity to attend a varied programme of panel discussions and expert talks.

Their papers will be assessed by a jury of top academics and senior ECB staff, taking into account votes to be cast by Forum participants. Please see the prize rules   and privacy statement for further details.

The call for papers closed on 12 February 2024.

Meet Lukas Nord, winner of the 2023 Young Economist Prize!

European university institute.

Shopping, demand composition and equilibrium prices Poster

“Households can reduce their cost of consumption by comparing prices across stores. In response, retailers set lower prices if more demand comes from buyers who compare prices carefully. This mechanism reduces inequality and affects how retail prices respond to aggregate shocks.”

Find out more about related content

Ecb forum on central banking.

The ECB Forum on Central Banking is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal.

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Blended Finance

Blended finance---the use of public and philanthropic funding to crowd in private capital---is a potential way to finance a more sustainable world. While blended finance holds the promise of being catalytic in mobilizing vast amounts of private capital, little is known about this practice. In this paper, we provide a conceptual framework that formalizes the decision-making of development finance institutions (DFIs) that engage in blended finance. We then provide empirical evidence on blended finance using data from a major DFI. The key variable we study is the level of concessionality, which captures the subsidy from the blended co-investment. Our findings indicate that DFIs provide higher concessionality for projects that have a higher sustainability impact per dollar invested. Moreover, the concessionality is higher for projects in countries with higher political risk and a higher degree of information asymmetries. In such cases, the blending tends to also include risk-management provisions. These findings are consistent with the predictions from our conceptual framework, in which DFIs have a limited budget that they allocate across projects to create societal value.

We are grateful to Matthieu Pegon for helpful comments. We thank Chandana Yelkur for excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

MARC RIS BibTeΧ

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LIVE UPDATES | CONCLUDED

Powell Talks Rates, Inflation, and More

Follow live coverage and analysis of the fed chair's talk in san francisco..

Last Updated: 

The Conversation

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference today.

The conversation, moderated by Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal, began with a question on inflation . The conference appearance came on the heels of February's PCE report .

The highlights:

Powell Says February Inflation Report Was Good. But More Data Is Needed.

Interest Rates Will Probably Settle Higher

Don’t expect the fed to declare victory, powell wants to avoid ‘disruptive’ quantitative tightening, powell says february inflation report was good. but more data is needed before rate cuts., a ‘steady hand’ on rate cuts is key, powell notes, with inflation down from its peak, the fed is prioritizing its dual mandate more, recession is unlikely this year, fed won't make decisions based on politics, powell responds to critics demanding rate cuts, interest rates, inflation, and what else could come up in powell's speech, latest updates.

Updated 3 days ago

Megan Leonhardt

Powell’s first thought when he saw the February PCE inflation report Friday morning was that the data were “pretty much in-line with our expectations.”

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 2.8% on a 12-month basis. Headline inflation was 2.5% year over year.

“That's what we were expecting and it's good to see something coming in, in line with expectations,” Powell said.

Powell called attention to the very high inflation reading in January and that February's reading was lower. "It's not as low as most of the good readings we got in the second half of last year. But it's definitely more along the lines of what we want to see,” Powell said.

“We expect inflation to move down to 2%—but on a path that is sometimes bumpy," Powell noted later in the conference. "The question then is, are those just bumps or are they something more than bumps? ... We're just going to have to let the data tell us that. There isn't anybody who knows,” Powell said.

The timing of rate cuts hinges on the data. “We don't see it as likely to be appropriate that we would begin to reduce interest rates until the Federal Open Market Committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% on a sustained basis,” Powell said, noting that the confidence would come from "more good inflation readings like the ones we were getting last year."

The U.S. economy is growing at a solid pace and the labor market is resilient. That gives the Fed a chance to take its time to gain additional confidence that inflation is cooling before taking the important step of cutting rates.

Powell said to expect policymakers to take that time. “We're not going to take that step [to cut rates] until we are confident.”

Banks Are in a Good Place, but Supervisors Shouldn't Be Afraid to be Forceful

Although last year’s banking crisis seemed to catch regulators off-guard, Powell said he believes the U.S. system is now sound and there are lessons that can be applied.

“I would say the banking system is in a good place now,” Powell said. “I think things have settled down significantly.”

While there are some concerns that commercial real estate losses could impact smaller and regional banks, Powell said the banking system, as a whole, is in a good place. “The commercial real estate problem will be with us for some years,” he said, adding that there are only some banks caught in those headwinds. He said the Fed is working with those banks to ensure they have enough capital and can work through the challenges.

One of the lessons of Silicon Valley Bank's failure was that there are situations where bank supervisors need to be “forceful” when appropriate, Powell said.

“Bank supervision can tend to be pretty process oriented,” Powell said. There's a playbook, a checklist, and Powell said that can be a good thing because the process should be transparent so banks know what's expected and can do what's expected.

But that process can be slow when it needs to be fast. The art of bank supervision is balancing when to jump on things and when to take the time to be process-oriented.

“What's important is that the banks are well-capitalized, that they understand their risks, and manage them,” Powell said. “The more the banks take that on themselves and do a great job at it without us pushing them, the less we need to push.”

Powell said that when determining the path of monetary policy, the central bank’s “hand is a steady hand.” That's key when it comes to weighing economic data, particularly to measure the trajectory of inflation.

“We've been saying all through last year and this year that we're making progress. We've noted that progress, we haven't overreacted to it,” Powell said.

Powell noted that it’s important to be nimble and flexible. “We always have to be humble,” he said, particularly given the outlook is “always much more uncertain than most people think.”

The economy “can and often has recently performed in unexpected ways,” Powell said. But he believes the Fed is ready for that if that's what happens. “It's important to get this right,” Powell added.

There’s been some speculation on what would happen if the Fed cut rates and then had to reverse course. Marketplace’s Ryssdal asked Powell about it: “Would it be terrible if you reduce interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and then the data changes and you have to change your mind?”

“It wouldn't need to be terrible,” Powell said. If that happens, he said the central bank would react and adjust.

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