a review of school climate research

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School Climate: a Review of the Construct, Measurement, and Impact on Student Outcomes

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The construct of school climate has received attention as a way to enhance student achievement and reduce problem behaviors. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the existing literature on school climate and to bring to light the strengths, weakness, and gaps in the ways researchers have approached the construct. The central information in this article is organized into five sections. In the first, we describe the theoretical frameworks to support the multidimensionality of school climate and how school climate impacts student outcomes. In the second, we provide a breakdown of the four domains that make up school climate, including academic, community, safety, and institutional environment. In the third, we examine research on the outcomes of school climate. In the fourth, we outline the measurement and analytic methods of the construct of school climate. Finally, we summarize the strengths and limitations of the current work on school climate and make suggestions for future research directions.

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• Developmental and Educational Psychology

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• 10.1007/s10648-015-9319-1

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• school climate Social Sciences 100%
• Climate Medicine & Life Sciences 96%
• Students Medicine & Life Sciences 59%
• student Social Sciences 20%
• measurement method Social Sciences 14%
• Problem Behavior Medicine & Life Sciences 11%
• Direction compound Medicine & Life Sciences 7%
• Research Personnel Medicine & Life Sciences 7%

T1 - School Climate

T2 - a Review of the Construct, Measurement, and Impact on Student Outcomes

AU - Wang, Ming Te

AU - Degol, Jessica L.

PY - 2016/6/1

Y1 - 2016/6/1

N2 - The construct of school climate has received attention as a way to enhance student achievement and reduce problem behaviors. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the existing literature on school climate and to bring to light the strengths, weakness, and gaps in the ways researchers have approached the construct. The central information in this article is organized into five sections. In the first, we describe the theoretical frameworks to support the multidimensionality of school climate and how school climate impacts student outcomes. In the second, we provide a breakdown of the four domains that make up school climate, including academic, community, safety, and institutional environment. In the third, we examine research on the outcomes of school climate. In the fourth, we outline the measurement and analytic methods of the construct of school climate. Finally, we summarize the strengths and limitations of the current work on school climate and make suggestions for future research directions.

AB - The construct of school climate has received attention as a way to enhance student achievement and reduce problem behaviors. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the existing literature on school climate and to bring to light the strengths, weakness, and gaps in the ways researchers have approached the construct. The central information in this article is organized into five sections. In the first, we describe the theoretical frameworks to support the multidimensionality of school climate and how school climate impacts student outcomes. In the second, we provide a breakdown of the four domains that make up school climate, including academic, community, safety, and institutional environment. In the third, we examine research on the outcomes of school climate. In the fourth, we outline the measurement and analytic methods of the construct of school climate. Finally, we summarize the strengths and limitations of the current work on school climate and make suggestions for future research directions.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84932095010&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84932095010&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10648-015-9319-1

DO - 10.1007/s10648-015-9319-1

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:84932095010

SN - 1040-726X

JO - Educational Psychology Review

JF - Educational Psychology Review

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The Impact of School Climate on Well-Being Experience and School Engagement: A Study With High-School Students

Elisabetta lombardi.

1 Department of Psychology, Catholic University of Milan, Milan, Italy

Daniela Traficante

Roberta bettoni.

2 Carlo Besta Neurological Institute (IRCCS), Milan, Italy

Ilaria Offredi

Marisa giorgetti.

3 Scientific Institute for Rehabilitation Medicine, Eugenio Medea (IRCCS), Bosisio Parini, Italy

Mirta Vernice

4 Department of Psychology, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy

Associated Data

The datasets generated for this study are available on request to the corresponding author.

The aim of this work is to investigate the factors promoting students’ engagement at school and supporting their well-being experience. According to the Positive Education there is a strong relationship between school environment and student’s well-being. Moreover, the quality of the school climate perceived by the students was found to influence engagement in school activities, as well. In this study, 153 students ( M = 67) attending 10th grade were presented with tests and questionnaires to assess individual assets (personality traits, literacy skills), emerging appraisals (school-climate, well-being experience) and emerging actions (school engagement), according to the Student Well-Being Model. Path analysis showed that the best model does include neither individual assets nor direct effect of school climate on engagement, as the effect of school climate on engagement is mediated by well-being experience. The main result is that school climate has been confirmed as an important factor to be considered to improve engagement in school activities, but it is effective only when its influence can modify the well-being experience of the students. Moreover, the lack of significant effects of individual assets in the model suggests that improving school climate means to support well-being experience and, indirectly school engagement, irrespective to learning abilities and personality traits. This work encourages working in/with schools to implement positive education programs that support and sustain a positive school climate and culture for school-community wellbeing.

Introduction

In recent years, there is a growing interest in educational policies and research promoting student engagement at school in order to contrast the students’ passivity and the dropout rate ( Archambault et al., 2009 ). As such, dropping out of high school has consequences for students’ well-being, including less lifetime earnings, more risky health behaviors, and poorer mental health ( Archambault et al., 2009 ). In 2017, the dropout rate in Italy (13.8%) was higher than the EU average rate (10.7%) (source: MIUR, Italian Ministery of Education, University and Research, 2017 ), with more impact in the regions of the South of Italy. Furthermore, the percentage of 18–24 years old people who can be defined NEETs (Neither in Employment Nor in Education or Training) in 2017 was around 25.7% in Italy, a percentage which is nearly double the EU average percentage (14.3%) (source: European Union Commissione Europea, 2018 ).

In this scenario, research is needed to identify and support all factors that can reduce boredom and passiveness among young people. School enjoyment is influenced by different factors involving values, reading, and writing skills, expectations of social context (i.e., peers, teachers, and families) and is affected by both school and out-of-school contexts ( Jennings, 2003 ; Ainley and Ainley, 2011 ). These aspects have been proved to affect learning outcomes and student’s engagement. The latter has been considered a key-factor to promote school completion and prevent dropout ( Christenson and Thurlow, 2004 ; Ainley and Ainley, 2011 ; Christenson et al., 2012 ). Longitudinal studies showed that engagement in high-school is associated with educational and occupational outcomes in adulthood, as it not only predicts academic attainment, but also influences learner’s self-concept, along with adult educational and occupational achievement, irrespective from socioeconomic factors and personality traits ( Abbott-Chapman et al., 2014 ). In this view, student’s engagement in school activities is a key protective factor against the risk of dropout ( Finn, 2006 ; Archambault et al., 2009 ). Leaving school before completing high school education is often the outcome of problems that can be related to little support in school context or to health, personal, or emotional difficulties young people face. It can be also associated with socio-economic phenomena (i.e., the economic crisis), which have strong impact on family background ( Berti et al., 2017 ). At the school level, a negative school climate (i.e., bullying or poor relationships between pupils and teachers) may trigger drop-out. Early school leaving, in addition, has significant societal and individual consequences, including the increased risk of unemployment, poverty, lower health, and social exclusion ( Psacharopoulos and Patrinos, 2018 ). Data from 2012 indicated that in Europe 5.5 million of youth and young adults (18–24 years old) have not earned a high school diploma and were not currently enrolled in education and training ( European Union Commissione Europea, 2013 ). In this scenario the study of the individual and contextual component affecting engagement in study activities can offer useful cues to face with huge social problems.

Engagement has been described in literature as a multidimensional construct, consisting mainly of three interrelated dimensions: emotion or affect, behavior, and cognition ( Fredericks et al., 2004 ; Lam et al., 2014 ). The affective or emotional dimension of engagement refers to the young people’s attraction to school with the absence of negative emotions and the presence of positive emotions (i.e., interest, joy) during task involvement ( Skinner et al., 2009 ). The behavioral aspect of engagement refers to factors (i.e., attention, effort, and persistence) that are in accordance with school expectations, learning-related tasks, and involvement in different school activities, even though not related to learning ( Skinner et al., 2009 ). The cognitive face of engagement refers to the strategies used by the student in learning activity, the execution of a particular work style, and self-regulated learning ( Fredericks et al., 2004 ; Wang et al., 2011 ). Very few studies have considered student engagement as a multi-dimensional construct. A recent large study by Fatou and Kubiszewski (2018) , with high school students (enrolled in grades 10, 11, and 12), was aimed at examining possible associations between student engagement and school climate perceived by students. The main result of that work was that student engagement was associated with perceived school climate; more specifically, the researchers presented a model that explained a large proportion of the variance in students’ engagement by incorporating the perceived school climate. Such model was useful, in particular, for predicting affective engagement.

These findings support the idea that the school climate might play an important role to favor a positive school experience in students. Numerous approaches contribute to a conceptualization of school climate and there is not a unique definition of it. School climate is generally viewed as a multidimensional construct that encompasses a school’s atmosphere, culture, values, resources, and social networks ( Wang and Degol, 2016 ). Furthermore, especially in the United States context, it is defined by the school norms, goals, values, interpersonal relationships, teaching and learning practices, organizational structures ( National School Climate Council, 2007 ) and is studied in terms of school safety (e.g., anti-bullying). The U.S. Department of Education (2014) , dispensed guidelines to promote and improve school climate and in 2018 the Office of Safe and Healthy Students proposed a compendium of school climate survey ( American Institutes for Research, 2018 ). Several programs aimed at improving school climate have been developed to promote the quality of scholastic life ( O’Brennan and Bradshaw, 2013 ). In fact, there is evidence that students are more engaged in school and attain higher academic achievement in schools with a positive school climate ( Wang and Degol, 2016 ; Konold et al., 2018 ). School climate can be studied at the group level, by aggregating the data collection of the different actors (students, teachers, managers, parents) involved in the school context ( Cornell et al., 2016 ). However, considering the perception of school climate also at an individual level can be very important, as several findings show that the feelings about school life have a great impact on student’s well-being ( Gage et al., 2016 ).

School has been recognized as one of the most important developmental context, where students can acquire skills and competencies supporting their successful adaptation ( Hamilton and Hamilton, 2009 ). However, there is still a limited perspective on factors that foster an optimal school environment ( Norrish et al., 2013 ). These limits come from the prevalence of problem-focused approaches, instead of studies aimed to promote a positive educational context ( Froh et al., 2011 ). In response to an excessive emphasis on research and practice related to weakness and disease, Positive Psychology movement redirected scientific inquiry toward the exploration of conditions promoting well-being in absence of pathology and illness ( Seligman and Csikszentmihalyi, 2000 ; Snyder and McCullough, 2000 ; Sheldon and King, 2001 ; Rusk and Waters, 2013 ). Understanding factors associated with positive psychological experiences could provide meaningful guidance to plan interventions that improve the optimal functioning of children and young people at multiple levels.

The application of Positive Psychology in educational context gave rise to a new paradigm, the Positive Education. Seligman (2011) defined this approach as “traditional education focused on academic skill development, complemented by approaches that nurture wellbeing and promote good mental health” (p. 127). This conceptualization has implications for research, stressing the importance of the relationship between school environment and student health and well-being. “The fundamental goal of Positive Education is to promote flourishing or positive mental health within school community” ( Norrish et al., 2013 , p. 148). Seligman’s (2011) PERMA (Positive emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, and Accomplishments) model of flourishing claims that positive emotions, engagement, relationship, meaning, and accomplishment are the keys to happiness and well-being.

In this vein, Soutter et al. (2014) proposed a conceptual framework to investigate student well-being (the Student Well-Being Model: SWBM), in which seven domains are considered, and organized in three overarching categories ( Figure 1 ): Having, Being, and Relating (Assets for well-being category); Feeling and Thinking (Appraisals category); Functioning and Striving (Actions category). The way these components interact is modeled according to the emergence mechanism: locally acting components give rise to higher-level entities ( Roeser and Galloway, 2002 ), that interact with the other levels through feedback loops. In addition, the evolution of student well-being throughout the lifetime is also considered. It is worth noting that this model draws from Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) model of human development, as its components are considered embedded in the intersecting spheres of students’ lives, i.e., the classroom, school, family, community and natural and built environments. The aim of Soutter et al.’s (2014) work is to offer a framework for developing qualitative and quantitative measures of students’ well-being and for promoting well-being in school programs.

Student Well-Being Model (source: Soutter et al., 2014 ).

Among locally interacting assets, personality traits and attitude toward learning are expected to play a main role in school experience. Personality traits, described according to the so-called Five-Factors Approach ( Block, 2010 ), are supposed to affect the way a student is used to face effort and duties (conscientiousness, neuroticism), to cope in front to new challenges (openness to experience), to interact with adults and peers (agreeableness, extraversion). Moreover, it is worth noting that students need to feel a close match between their current skills and abilities and instructional and curricular requirements, in order to have a positive school experience ( Traficante et al., 2017 ). Due to the high social value attributed to literacy, students who are struggling in reading and writing often develop deep distrust in their own abilities, low motivation, helpless behavior, low self-esteem, and anxiety in being involved in school activities, as they anticipate their own failure ( Morgan et al., 2008 ; Graham et al., 2012 ; Mason et al., 2012 ). Moreover, reading and writing abilities affect the social status of the child among the classmates ( Elbaum et al., 1999 ; Cornoldi and De Beni, 2001 ; Mugnaini et al., 2009 ; Andolfi et al., 2015 ), with effects on school well-being. However, during the adolescence, students with learning disabilities might be able to apply compensative strategies that allow them to adequately deal with the school requests. Thanks to the support of the school context, the consequences of school experience difficulties might be reduced, the students can reach functional levels of learning and the real difficulties might occur only when they are under pressure ( Fenzi and Cornoldi, 2015 ).

The aim of this work is to study, according to SWBM, how personal traits and literacy skills (locally interacting assets) influence students’ representations of school environment and of their experience of flourishing (emergent appraisals), and how these appraisals affect engagement in school activities (emergent actions). Fatou and Kubiszewski (2018) analyzed the effect of school-climate perception on engagement in high school, but in the present study other factors were considered as predictors of school engagement, and different models of relationships between different components were assessed. In particular, individual characteristics (personal traits and literacy skills) were expected to influence school-climate perception and well-being experience. Moreover, students’ well-being experience was supposed to influence engagement in school activities beyond the effect of school-climate perception, assessed by Fatou and Kubiszewski (2018) .

Materials and Methods

Participants.

One hundred fifty-nine (159, M = 15.6 years, SD = 6.2 months; Males = 70; 44%) high school students attending the 10th grade took part in the study. In this group there were 21 students with learning disabilities (13.2%), 2 students with sensory disabilities (1.2%), 4 students with other special needs (2.5%), and 28 students with Italian as their second language (17.6%). All students attended the 10th grade of three high-schools in the North of Italy during the 2018–2019 school year. Fifty-one participants were attending a technical institute (33.3%), 38 a vocational school (24.9%), and 61 a scientific high school (41.8%). Participants came from the middle class ( M = 6.86, SD = 1.60), according to the Family Affluence Scale (FAS; Currie et al., 2008 ).

Locally Interacting Assets

Literacy skills.

• 1. Decoding ability is evaluated considering speed and accuracy in reading a list of pseudo-words ( DDE-2 , Sartori et al., 2007 ). Reading speed was measured both as the overall reading time (in seconds) and as the number of syllables per second. Reading accuracy was measured as the number of errors in reading aloud.
• 2. Reading comprehension was assessed through a standardized text reading test ( Advanced MT 2 , Cornoldi et al., 2010 ). Students were presented with 10 multiple-choice questions (four alternatives), after reading the text silently. The score was the number of correct answers (range 0–10).
• 3. Accuracy in spelling was assessed through a text dictation test ( Advanced MT 3 , Cornoldi et al., 2017 ). The experimenter dictated at a constant rhythm of one word every 2 s. The score was the number of incorrectly written words.

Personality traits

Italian adaptation of Big Five Inventory (BFI – John et al., 2008 ; It. ad. Ubbiali et al., 2013 ) was used to evaluate the personality traits. The questionnaire consists of 44 utterances referring to five trait dimensions of personality: extraversion (8 items, e.g., “ I am a person who …generates a lot of enthusiasm”), agreeableness (9 items, e.g., “ I am a person who …likes to cooperate with others”), conscientiousness (9 items, e.g., “ I am a person who …makes plans and follows through with them”), neuroticism (8 items, e.g., “ I am a person who …is depressed, blue”), and openness to experience (10 items, e.g., “ I am a person who …is original, comes up with new ideas”). Answers were given on a 5-point Likert scale, from 1 = “strongly disagree” to 5 = “strongly agree.” Mean score for each dimension was carried out (range 1–5).

Emergent Appraisals

School climate.

The Georgia School Climate Survey (GSCS) is annually administered as an anonymous survey in the Georgia, United States. The survey was developed by the Georgia Department of Education (GADOE) Assessment and Accountability Division, the Georgia Department of Public Health, and Georgia State University. The 20 items downloaded from the official website https://www.gadoe.org/Curriculum-Instruction-and-Assessment/Curriculum-and-Instruction/GSHS-II/Pages/Georgia-Student-Health-Survey-II.aspx cover the following areas: school connectedness, peer social support, adult social support, cultural acceptance, social/civic learning, physical environment, school safety, peer victimization, order and discipline, and parents’ involvement (e.g., “I feel connected to others at school” ; “Teachers treat me with respect”; “My school building is well maintained”; “I feel safe in my school”). These items were administered after being translated in Italian and back-translated by an English native speaker. Answers were given on a 4-point Likert scale from 1 = “strongly disagree” to 4 = “strongly agree.” The overall school climate score ranged from 1 to 80.

Well-being experience

The Comprehensive Inventory of Thriving (CIT – Su et al., 2014 ) aims at assessing the general well-being through 54 items, pertaining to seven dimensions: (1) Relationships (6 scales, 18 items), composed by Support (e.g., “There are people who give me support and encouragement”), Community (e.g., I pitch in to help when my local community needs something done”), Respect (e.g., “People are polite to me”), Loneliness (e.g., “Often I feel left out”), Belonging (e.g., “I feel a sense of belonging in my Country”), and Trust (e.g., “Most people I meet are honest”); (2) Engagement (3 items: e.g., “I get fully absorbed in activities I do”); (3) Mastery (5 scales, 15 items), composed by Skills (e.g., “I use my skills a lot in my everyday life”), Learning (e.g., “I always learn something every day”), Accomplishment (e.g., “I am achieving most of my goals”), Self-Efficacy (e.g., “I believe that I am capable in most things”) and Self-worth (e.g., “The work I do is important for other people”); (4) Autonomy (3 items: e.g., “Other people decide most of my life decisions”); (5) Meaning (3 items: e.g., “I know what gives meaning to my life”); (6) Optimism (3 items: e.g., “I expect more good things in my life than bad”); (7) Subjective Well-being (3 scales, 9 items), composed by Life Satisfaction (e.g., “I am satisfied with my life”), Positive Feelings (e.g., “Most of the time, I feel happy”), and Negative Feelings (e.g., “Most of the time, I feel sad”). Items pertaining to the scales Loneliness, Autonomy, and Negative feelings were negatively phrased, so they were reversed. The rest of the items are phrased in a positive direction such that high scores mean that respondents view themselves positively in important areas of functioning. Participants were instructed to respond to each item on a scale from 1 = “strongly disagree” to 5 = “strongly agree.” Mean scores for each subscale were carried out (range: 1–5), and the CIT total score was the summed raw scores (range: 54–270).

Emergent Actions

Italian adaptation of the Student Engagement Scale ( Lam et al., 2014 ; It. ad. Mameli and Passini, 2017 ), is a questionnaire that assesses the three dimensions of student engagement by three scales. The Affective engagement scale estimates students’ interests and positive inclination for learning and school (9 items: e.g., “I think what we are learning in school is interesting”); the Behavioral engagement scale investigates students’ involvement in school and extra-school activities and the effort in learning (12 items: e.g., “In class I work as hard as I can”). The Cognitive engagement scale measures students’ investment in learning processes and strategies (12 items: e.g., “Make up my own examples to help me understand the important concepts I learn from school”). In the first two scales (Affective and Behavioral engagement), students were asked to indicate their level of agreement on a 7-point Likert scale from 1 = “strongly disagree” to 7 = “strongly agree.” In the Cognitive engagement scale, students were asked to answer a 7-point Likert scale of frequency from 1 = “never” to 7 = “always.” The mean score for each subscale was carried out (range: 1–7).

After receiving the school-manager’s approval to carry out the research, the caregivers and the students were informed on the aim and procedure of the study. Parents provided a written consent for their children’s participation in the study and students gave informed written consent to the study, according to the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR 2016/79, 25/05/2018). Students completed the questionnaires and the tests in two group sessions and their decoding ability was assessed in one individual session. The present study was approved by the Scientific and Ethics Committee of the Department of Psychology of Catholic University of Milan, in accordance with the Helsinki Declaration.

Data Analysis

Normative scoring.

Standardized scores were computed from Italian normative data for literacy tests. Raw scores were recoded into z -scores, and the higher the value of z -scores is, the higher is the student’s ability.

Reliability Assessment

Reliability of each scale of the administered questionnaires was assessed through the Cronbach’s alpha, in order to include only reliable measures into the analyses.

Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive statistics were computed for each scale, in order to have a full description of the group of participants and verify the metric features of the variables included in the analyses.

Inferential Analyses

Canonical correlations (Pearson’s r ) within all the measures were analyzed, in order to identify the relationships within all the variables of interest. Moreover, three linear regression analyses were carried out with engagement scales (Affective, Behavioral, Cognitive) as dependent variables one at a time, and four different set of independent variables: (a) personality traits (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience), (b) literacy skills (decoding, comprehension, spelling), (c) well-being (total score), and (d) school climate (total score). Finally, path-analysis (SEM) was implemented by mean of Mplus 7.11 software ( Muthén and Muthén, 1998-2015 ), to test the direct and indirect effects of individual assets, school climate and well-being on students’ engagement.

A score above 25th percentile rank at Standard Progressive Matrices test (SPM; Raven, 1954 , 2008 ) was used as inclusion criterion, in order to obtain a good adherence to the tasks. The participants showing a SPM score above the 25th percentile was 153 ( M = 15.6 years, SD = 6.5 months, Male = 67, 44%). In this group there were 18 students with learning disabilities (11.8%), 2 students with sensory disabilities (1.3%), and 3 students with other special needs (2%).

Descriptive Statistics and Reliability Indexes

Descriptive statistics on the scores from the assessment of reading, writing and comprehension skills ( Table 1 ) demonstrate the heterogeneity of the students considered in this study, as the minimum values show the presence of severe learning difficulties.

Literacy measures: descriptive statistics of raw- and z -scores.

As shown in Table 2 , all the factors of Big Five Inventory show a good internal consistency: Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were adequate, as they ranged from 0.67 to 0.82. Also the subscales of Comprehensive Inventory of Thriving show a good internal consistency (from 0.60 to 0.88), as well as the Georgia School Climate (α = 0.80). Descriptive statistics and reliability indexes of the engagement scales used to assess the different dimensions of the students’ engagement show that all the scales of the Student Engagement Scale have a good internal consistency. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were good as they ranged from 0.86 to 0.93.

Personality traits, well-being, school-climate, and engagement: descriptive statistics and reliability indexes.

Correlation and Regression Analyses

Correlation analysis ( Supplementary Table S1 ) was carried out to assess the associations between individual assets (personality traits, literacy skills), emergent appraisals (school climate, well-being experience), and emergent actions (engagement). First of all, it is worth noting that both comprehension and spelling accuracy are correlated with decoding ability, but are not related to each other. In other words, a good ability in transcoding graphemes-to-phonemes is associated both to a good text comprehension and to accuracy in spelling, but the latter two skills are not associated to each other. Moreover, good text comprehension is associated with high scores in Consciousness ( r = 0.20) and Openness to experience ( r = 0.172), with the perception of a positive school climate ( r = 0.21) and with high level of engagement in learning activities (Affective: r = 0.179; Behavior: r = 0.169). Accuracy in spelling is associated with Neuroticism ( r = 0.21): students who feel anxious and need to have a high level of control in their lives seem to be more accurate in spelling.

Overall, Supplementary Table S1 shows strong correlations among personality traits, perception of school climate and engagement in learning activities, in the expected direction. In order to disentangle the specific effects exerted by personality traits, literacy, well-being experience, and perception of the school climate on engagement in school activities, three multiple linear regression analyses (with backward method) were carried out on each of engagement dimensions.

Affective Engagement Scale

Table 3 shows the variables that contribute to the explanation of about 50% of the variance of the Affective engagement score ( R = 0.71; R 2 = 0.51; F 8 , 134 = 17.44, p < 0.001). It is worth noting that only individual features and well-being experience seem to influence the affective engagement of students in school activities, whereas school climate has been excluded in previous steps. The personality profile of the student affectively involved in the learning process is characterized by conscientiousness, openness to experience and also by some degree of neuroticism. Students who are satisfied by their social relationships are usually engaged in their activities, and have an optimistic view of life and future. Their level of text comprehension is good. The negative coefficient of reading speed suggests that students who are attending 10th grade, in spite of their difficulties in reading, seem to be particularly engaged in learning activities.

Affective engagement scale: linear regression coefficients.

Behavioral Engagement Scale

Six variables contribute to the explanation of about 50% of the variance in Behavioral engagement score ( R = 0.72; R 2 = 0.52; F 6 , 136 = 24.85, p < 0.001). Table 4 shows that students’ involvement in school and extra-school activities and the effort in learning are affected not only by individual features but also by perception of school climate. In other words, school context seems to influence the actual level of students’ participation to the school and extra-school activities. Students who are prone to being involved in school activity are characterized by conscientiousness, agreeableness, and attitude to be engaged, but seem to have low satisfaction in relationship. Also in this regression model the coefficient corresponding to reading speed is negative oriented, suggesting the students with less reading skills are more involved in school activities.

Behavioral engagement scale: linear regression coefficients.

Cognitive Engagement Scale

Only three variables were selected by the backward method ( Table 5 ): openness to experience, reading speed, and sense of mastery. This model explained about 40% of the variance on Cognitive engagement score ( R = 0.62; R 2 = 0.39; F 3 , 139 = 29.53, p < 0.001) and suggests that the application of metacognitive and strategic approach to learning activity is an attitude developed by students who are prone to face new experiences and feel a sense of mastery when faced with new challenges. This attitude seems to be less developed in students with lower level of reading skills.

Cognitive engagement scale: linear regression coefficients.

Path Analysis

In order to draw a global representation of factors affecting engagement, structural equation a modeling technique was applied for the opportunity of testing and comparing different models of direct and indirect effects ( Table 6 ).

Path analysis: fit indexes of assessed models.

Fit indexes of Model 1, including individual assets (the latent variables “literacy skills” and “personality traits”) as independent variables, emergent appraisals (the latent variable “well-being” and the observed variable “school-climate”) as mediating variables, and emergent actions (the latent variable “school engagement”) as outcome were not satisfactory, due to the low impact of individual assets on school-climate appraisal and of literacy skills on well-being. For this reason, individual assets were excluded from the analyses and two different models were tested. In Model 2 ( Figure 2 ) the direct impact of school climate on student’s engagement was tested, according to Fatou and Kubiszewski (2018) work, but also the direct impact of school climate on well-being and of well-being on engagement were assessed, due to the stress of Positive Education on the effect of school community on well-being ( Seligman, 2011 ). Fit indexes improved a lot in comparison to the previous model, but the direct effect of school climate on engagement was far from significance level.

Path analysis: Model 2.

So, in Model 3 ( Figure 3 ), such a direct effect was deleted and the impact of school climate on engagement was modeled as fully mediated by the impact that school climate exert on well-being experience. All the effects in Model 3 are highly significant, so it has been considered the best model.

Path analysis: Model 3.

The aim of this work is to assess the relationships within the components proposed by the SWBM by Soutter et al. (2014) in the experience of students attending 10th grade, in order to identify the aspects which should become the targets of interventions, planned according to the Positive Education approach. Recently, Fatou and Kubiszewski (2018) found that the quality of the school climate perceived by the students explains a high proportion of variance in the level of engagement in school activities, showing a direct impact of school environment on the interest the students develop in learning and in participating to educational proposals. In the present work this model was extended through the inclusion of other variables suggested by SWB model. In particular, the impacts of personality traits and literacy skills (assets) on school climate and well-being experience (appraisals), and the effects of appraisal components on engagement in school activities (actions) were assessed. Our results support our hypotheses, showing an impact of assets and appraisals on the student actions and revealing that well-being experience influence engagement in school activities beyond the effect of school-climate perception.

Correlational analyses showed that higher ability in text comprehension is associated to consciousness, openness to experience, perception of positive school climate, and high level of affective and behavioral engagement. The association between ability in text comprehension and deep interest in knowledge and in cultural experience suggests that students with high level of openness to experience, and attitude to acquire new information are more likely to develop reading habit. Moreover, both text comprehension and social and emotional competence, which can contribute to a positive appraisal of school environment and activities, require inferential skills and an attitude to assume different points of view. According to research demonstrating the relationship between social competence, perceived social support and engagement (e.g., Estell and Perdue, 2013 ), these results show that the characteristics of personality that underline social functioning are associated with positive representation of school climate. Furthermore, the associations of personal traits with the affective and behavioral engagement are relevant because it suggests that consciousness and openness to experience are related with cognitive and emotional involvement in study activities.

It is worth noting also the lack of significant correlation between literacy and well-being. Previous work (see Traficante et al., 2017 ) suggested that well-being experience of primary-school children is mainly affected by literacy skills, as education, in low grades, is focused on learning to read and to write. Differently from what has been found in primary school children, in 10th grade literacy skills seem not to influence students’ well-being anymore. Furthermore, this work suggests that students who are attending 10th grade, in spite of their difficulties in reading, seem to be particularly engaged in learning activities. This is in line with the evidence that high-school students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) can develop adaptive strategies to deal with the school requests and focus on functional level of learning ( Fenzi and Cornoldi, 2015 ). Accordingly, a recent work on the students with SLD included in this sample, focused on the impact of low literacy skills on well-being experience ( Sarti et al., 2019 ) did not found any significant difference between clinical and control groups. On the contrary, students with SLD showed an increasing sense of thriving related to a growing trust and perceived support from others.

The complex pattern of relationships within all the variables of interest was further analyzed through linear regression models. These models showed that affective engagement is affected by personality traits (consciousness, openness, and neuroticism) and literacy skills, as the higher the ability in text comprehension is, the more interested the student is in learning activities. However, it is worth noting that, consistently with the previous remark on students with learning disabilities, the lower the decoding skills are, the higher the affective engagement is in school. This unexpected result can be explained by taking into account that attending high school, in Italy, is not mandatory. So, if a student with learning disabilities chooses to study after finishing middle school, he/she must be very interested in learning activity. Moreover, regression coefficients show that students with a higher level of affective engagement are people with a positive attitude toward social relationships and have an active and positive representation of his/her life. Attitude to be engaged in school projects and extra-school educational activities (behavioral engagement) is predicted by traits concerning sociality (agreeableness, relationships) and involvement (conscientiousness, engagement) and is affected by school climate, as the higher the sense of belonging to the institution is, the higher the behavioral engagement. Again, students with lower decoding skills seem to be more active in their school, and are more prone to apply cognitive strategies in school activities (cognitive engagement). Such metacognitive attitude is also predicted by the sense of mastery and by openness to experiences.

Finally, path analyses allowed to disentangle this complex pattern of reciprocal relationships, through the assessment of different models, in which, according to SWBM ( Soutter et al., 2014 ), individual assets (personality traits, literacy skills) were considered independent variables affecting appraisals (school-climate, well-being experience) and actions (school engagement). Results showed that the best model includes neither individual assets nor direct effect of school climate on engagement, which was suggested by Fatou and Kubiszewski (2018) . The effect of school climate on engagement is mediated by well-being experience. In other words, school climate has been confirmed as an important factor to be considered to improve engagement in school activities, but it is effective only when its influence can modify the well-being experience of the students.

These results support the perspective of Positive Education, as intervention on school environment is expected to exert positive effects not only on students’ well-being, but also on their engagement in school activities and learning, irrespective to students’ assets. This work encourages working in/with schools to implement positive education programs that support and sustain a positive school climate and culture for school-community wellbeing.

Data Availability Statement

Ethics statement.

The studies involving human participants were reviewed and approved by the Scientific and Ethics Committee of the Department of Psychology of Catholic University of Milan. Written informed consent to participate in this study was provided by the participants’ legal guardian/next of kin.

Author Contributions

EL and DT carried out data analyses and wrote the manuscript. All the authors contributed to data collection, the discussion of the results, and the planning and discussion of the draft.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Chiara Bulgarelli for helping in data collection. A special thanks to students, parents, and schools for their collaboration.

Funding. This publication was supported by the Cariplo Foundation (Grant 2017-NAZ-0131 “New technologies for education and their impact on students’ well-being and inclusion”).

Supplementary Material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02482/full#supplementary-material

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Systems View of School Climate: a Theoretical Framework for Research

• Review Article
• Published: 11 February 2017
• Volume 30 , pages 35–60, ( 2018 )

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• Kathleen Moritz Rudasill 1 ,
• Kate E. Snyder 2 ,
• Heather Levinson 2 &
• Jill L. Adelson 2  

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School climate has been widely examined through both empirical and theoretical means. However, there is little conceptual consensus underlying the landscape of this literature, offering inconsistent guidance for research examining this important construct. In order to best assist the efforts of developing causal models that describe how school climate functions, we propose the Systems View of School Climate (SVSC). This theoretical framework was formed by deconstructing prior models and empirical research on school climate into themes and highlighting their implicit assumptions. Using the SVSC to synthesize this existing literature, school climate is defined as the affective and cognitive perceptions regarding social interactions, relationships, values, and beliefs held by students, teachers, administrators, and staff within a school. School climate is situated within Ecological Systems Theory (Bronfenbrenner 1989 ) to guide future research in this domain and help specify levels of research or analysis, thereby providing utility as a theoretical framework for future causal models. The SVSC provides a roadmap for research by demarcating school climate from related constructs, suggesting related contextual and structural constructs, and delineating proximal and distal systems which may shape the nature of school climate.

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Rain, rain, go away, come again another day: do climate variations enhance the spread of COVID-19?

• Masha Menhat 1 ,
• Effi Helmy Ariffin   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8534-0113 2 ,
• Wan Shiao Dong 3 ,
• Junainah Zakaria 2 ,
• Aminah Ismailluddin 3 ,
• Hayrol Azril Mohamed Shafril 4 ,
• Mahazan Muhammad 5 ,
• Ahmad Rosli Othman 6 ,
• Thavamaran Kanesan 7 ,
• Suzana Pil Ramli 8 ,
• Mohd Fadzil Akhir 2 &
• Amila Sandaruwan Ratnayake 9  

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The spread of infectious diseases was further promoted due to busy cities, increased travel, and climate change, which led to outbreaks, epidemics, and even pandemics. The world experienced the severity of the 125 nm virus called the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019. Many investigations revealed a strong correlation between humidity and temperature relative to the kinetics of the virus’s spread into the hosts. This study aimed to solve the riddle of the correlation between environmental factors and COVID-19 by applying RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) with the designed research question. Five temperature and humidity-related themes were deduced via the review processes, namely 1) The link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks, 2) Regional area, 3) Climate and weather, 4) Relationship between temperature and humidity, and 5) the Governmental disinfection actions and guidelines. A significant relationship between solar activities and pandemic outbreaks was reported throughout the review of past studies. The grand solar minima (1450-1830) and solar minima (1975-2020) coincided with the global pandemic. Meanwhile, the cooler, lower humidity, and low wind movement environment reported higher severity of cases. Moreover, COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases were higher in countries located within the Northern Hemisphere. The Blackbox of COVID-19 was revealed through the work conducted in this paper that the virus thrives in cooler and low-humidity environments, with emphasis on potential treatments and government measures relative to temperature and humidity.

• The coronavirus disease 2019 (COIVD-19) is spreading faster in low temperatures and humid area.

• Weather and climate serve as environmental drivers in propagating COVID-19.

• Solar radiation influences the spreading of COVID-19.

• The correlation between weather and population as the factor in spreading of COVID-19.

Graphical abstract

Introduction

The revolution and rotation of the Earth and the Sun supply heat and create differential heating on earth. The movements and the 23.5° inclination of the Earth [ 1 ] separate the oblate-ellipsoid-shaped earth into northern and southern hemispheres. Consequently, the division results in various climatic zones at different latitudes and dissimilar local temperatures (see Fig.  1 ) and affects the seasons and length of a day and night in a particular region [ 2 ]. Global differential heating and climate variability occur due to varying solar radiation received by each region [ 3 ]. According to Trenberth and Fasullo [ 4 ] and Hauschild et al. [ 5 ] the new perspective on the issue of climate change can be affected relative to the changes in solar radiation patterns. Since the study by Trenberth and Fasullo [ 4 ] focused on climate model changes from 1950 to 2100, it was found that the role of changing clouds and trapped sunlight can lead to an opening of the aperture for solar radiation.

The annual average temperature data for 2021 in the northern and southern hemispheres ( Source: meteoblue.com ). Note: The black circles mark countries with high Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections

Furthermore, the heat from sunlight is essential to humans; several organisms could not survive without it. Conversely, the spread of any disease-carrying virus tends to increase with less sunlight exposure [ 6 ]. Historically, disease outbreaks that led to epidemic and pandemic eruptions were correlated to atmospheric changes. Pandemic diseases, such as the flu (1918), Asian flu (1956–1958), Hong Kong flu (1968), and recently, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (2019), recorded over a million death toll each during the winter season or minimum temperature conditions [ 7 ]. The total number of COVID-19 cases is illustrated in Fig.  2 .

A graphical representation of the total number of COVID-19 cases across various periods between 2020 and 2021. ( Source : www.worldometers.info ). Note: The black circles indicate countries with high numbers COVID-19-infections

In several previous outbreaks, investigations revealed a significant association between temperature and humidity with a particular focus on the transmission dynamics of the infection from the virus into the hosts [ 8 , 9 , 10 ]. Moreover, disease outbreaks tended to heighten in cold temperatures and low humidity [ 11 ]. Optimal temperature and sufficient relative humidity during evaporation are necessary for cloud formation, resulting in the precipitated liquid falling to the ground as rain, snow, or hail due to the activity of solar radiation balancing [ 4 ].

Consequently, the radiation balancing processes in the atmosphere are directly linked to the living beings on the earth, including plants and animals, and as well as viruses and bacterias. According to Carvalho et al. [ 12 ]‘s study, the survival rate of the Coronaviridae Family can decrease during summer seasons. Nevertheless, numerous diseases were also developed from specific viruses, such as influenza, malaria, and rubella, and in November 2019, a severe health threat originated from a 125 nm size of coronavirus, had resulted in numerous deaths worldwide.

Transmission and symptoms of COVID-19

The COVID-19, or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered pathogenic virus from the coronavirus family, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [ 13 ]. The first case was recorded in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [ 14 ]. The pathogenic virus is transmitted among humans when they breathe in air contaminated with droplets and tiny airborne particles containing the virus [ 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 ].

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the most common symptoms of COVID-19 infection include fever, dry cough, and tiredness. Nevertheless, older people and individuals with underlying health problems (lung and heart problems, high blood pressure, diabetes, or cancer) are at higher risk of becoming seriously ill and developing difficulty breathing [ 19 ]. The COVID-19 was initially only predominant in China but rapidly spread to other countries globally. The remarkably swift acceleration of the number of infections and mortality forced WHO to declare COVID-19 a global public health emergency on the 30th of January 2020, which was later declared as a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020 [ 20 ].

Since no vaccine was available then, WHO introduced the COVID-19 preventative measures to reduce the chances of virus transmission. The guideline for individual preventative included practising hand and respiratory hygiene by regularly cleaning hands with soap and water or alcohol-based sanitisers, wear a facemask and always maintaining at least a one-meter physical distance [ 21 ]. Nevertheless, the worldwide transmission of COVID-19 has resulted in fear and forced numerous countries to impose restrictions rules, such as lockdown, travel bans, closed country borders, restrictions on shipping activities, and movement limitations, to diminish the spread of COVID-19 [ 22 ].

According to WHO, by the 2nd of December 2020, 63,379,338 confirmed cases and 1,476,676 mortalities were recorded globally. On the 3rd of December 2021, 263,655,612 confirmed cases and deaths were recorded, reflecting increased COVID-19 infections compared to the previous year. The American and European regions documented the highest COVID-19 patients with 97,341,769 and 88,248,591 cases, respectively (see Fig. 2 ), followed by Southeast Asia with 44,607,287, Eastern Mediterranean accounted 16,822,791, Western Pacific recorded 6,322,034, and Africa reported the lowest number of cases at 6,322,034 [ 19 ].

Recently, an increasing number of studies are investigating the association between environmental factors (temperature and humidity) and the viability, transmission, and survival of the coronavirus [ 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 ]. The results primarily demonstrated that temperature was more significantly associated with the transmission of COVID-19 [ 27 , 28 , 29 ] and its survival period on the surfaces of objects [ 30 ]. Consequently, the disease was predominant in countries with low temperature and humidity [ 31 ], which was also proven by Diao et al. [ 32 ]‘s study demonstrating higher rates of COVID-19 transmission in China, England, Germany, and Japan.

A comprehensive systematic literature review (SLR) is still lacking despite numerous research on environmental factors linked to coronavirus. Accordingly, this article aimed to fill the gap in understanding and identifying the correlation between environmental factors and COVID-19 by analysing existing reports. Systematically reviewing existing literature is essential to contribute to the body of knowledge and provide beneficial information for public health policymakers.

Methodology

The present study reviewed the protocols, formulation of research questions, selection of studies, appraisal of quality, and data abstraction and analysis.

The protocol review

The present SLR was performed according to the reporting standards for systematic evidence syntheses (ROSES) and followed or adapted the guidelines as closely as possible. Thus, in this study, a systematic literature review was guided by the ROSES review protocol (Fig.  3 ). Compared to preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA), ROSES is a review protocol specifically designed for a systematic review in the conservation or environment management fields [ 33 ]. Compared to PRISMA, ROSES offers several advantages, as it is tailored to environmental systematic review, which reduces emphasis on quantitative synthesis (e.g. meta-analysis etc.) that is only reliable when used with appropriate data [ 34 ].

The flow diagram guide by ROSES protocol and Thematical Analysis

The current SLR started by determining the appropriate research questions, followed by the selection criteria, including the review, specifically on the keywords employed and the selection of journals database. Subsequently, the appraisal quality process and data abstraction and analysis were conducted.

Formulation of research questions

The entire process of this SLR was guided by the specific research questions, while sources to be reviewed and data abstraction and analysis were in line with the determined research question [ 35 , 36 ]. In the present article, a total of five research questions were formed, namely:

What the link between solar activity and COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks?

Which regions were more prone to COVID-19?

What were the temporal and spatial variabilities of high temperature and humidity during the spread of COVID-19?

What is the relationship between temperature and humidity in propagating COVID-19?

How did the government’s disinfection actions and guidelines can be reducing the spread of COVID-19?

Systematic searching strategies

Selection of studies.

In this stage of the study, the appropriate keywords to be employed in the searching process were determined. After referring to existing literature, six main keywords were chosen for the searching process, namely COVID-19, coronavirus, temperature, humidity, solar radiation and population density. The current study also utilised the boolean operators (OR, AND, AND NOT) and phrase searching.

Scopus was employed as the main database during the searching process, in line with the suggestion by Gusenbauer and Haddaway [ 37 ], who noted the strength of the database in terms of quality control and search and filtering functions. Furthermore, Google Scholar was selected as the supporting database. Although Halevi et al. [ 38 ] expressed concerns about its quality, Haddaway et al. [ 39 ] reported that due to its quantity, Google Scholar was suitable as a supporting database in SLR studies.

In the first stage of the search, 2550 articles were retrieved, which were then screened. The suitable criteria were also determined to control the quality of the articles reviewed [ 40 ]. The criteria are: any documents published between 2000 to 2022, documents that consist previously determined keywords, published in English, and any environment-related studies that focused on COVID-19. Based on these criteria, 2372 articles were excluded and 178 articles were proceeded to the next step namely eligibility. In the eligibility process, the title and the abstract of the articles were examined to ensure its relevancy to the SLR and in this process a total of 120 articles were excluded and only 58 articles were processed in the next stage.

Appraisal of the quality

The study ensured the rigor of the chosen articles based on best evidence synthesis. In the process, predefined inclusion criteria for the review were appraised by the systematic review team based on previously established guidelines and the studies were then judged as being scientifically admissible or not [ 40 ]. Hence, by controlling the quality based on the best evidence synthesis, the present SLR controls its quality by including articles that are in line with the inclusion criteria. It means that any article published within the timeline (in the year 2000 and above), composed of predetermined keywords, in English medium, and environment-related investigations focusing on COVID-19 are included in the review. Based on this process, all 58 articles fulfilled all the inclusion criteria and are considered of good quality and included in the review.

Data abstraction and analysis

The data abstraction process in this study was performed based on five research questions (please refer to 2.2, formulation of research questions). The data that was able to answer the questions were abstracted and placed in a table to ease the data analysis process. The primary data analysis technique employed in the current study was qualitative and relied on thematic analysis.

The thematic technique is a descriptive method that combines data flexibly with other information evaluation methods [ 41 ], aiming to identify the patterns in studies. Any similarities and relationships within the abstracted data emerge as patterns. Subsequently, suitable themes and sub-themes would be developed based on obtained patterns [ 42 ]. Following the thematic process, five themes were selected in this study.

Background of the selected articles

The current study selected 58 articles for the SLR. Five themes were developed based on the thematic analysis from the predetermined research questions: the link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks, regional area, climate and weather, the relationship between temperature and humidity, and government disinfection action guidelines. Among the articles retrieved between 2000 and 2022; two were published in 2010, one in 2011, four in 2013, three in 2014, two in 2015, six in 2016 and 2017, respectively, one in 2018, six in 2019, twelve in 2020, eight in 2021, and seven in 2022.

Temperature- and humidity-related themes

The link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks.

Numerous scientists have investigated the relationship between solar activities and pandemic outbreaks over the years ([ 43 ]; A [ 27 , 44 , 45 ].). Nuclear fusions from solar activities have resulted in minimum and maximum solar sunspots. Maximum solar activities are characterised by a high number of sunspots and elevated solar flare frequency and coronal mass injections. Minimum solar sunspot occurrences are identified by low interplanetary magnetic field values entering the earth [ 1 ].

A diminished magnetic field was suggested to be conducive for viruses and bacteria to mutate, hence the onset of pandemics. Nonetheless, Hoyle and Wickramasinghe [ 46 ] reported that the link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks is only speculative. The literature noted that the data recorded between 1930 and 1970 demonstrated that virus transmissions and pandemic occurrences were coincidental. Moreover, no pandemic cases were reported in 1979, when minimum solar activity was recorded [ 47 ].

Chandra Wickramasinghe et al. [ 48 ] suggested a significant relationship between pandemic outbreaks and solar activities as several grand solar minima, including Sporer (1450–1550 AD), Mounder (1650–1700 AD), and Dalton (1800–1830) minimums, were recorded coinciding with global pandemics of diseases, such as smallpox, the English sweat, plague, and cholera pandemics. Furthermore, since the Dalton minimum, which recorded minimum sunspots, studies from 2002 to 2015 have documented the reappearance of previous pandemics. For example, influenza subtype H1N1 1918/1919 episodically returned in 2009, especially in India, China, and other Asian countries. Zika virus, which first appeared in 1950, flared and became endemic in 2015, transmitted sporadically, specifically in African countries. Similarly, SARS-CoV was first recorded in China in 2002 and emerged as an outbreak, MERS-CoV, in middle east countries a decade later, in 2012.

In 2020, the World Data Centre Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ( http://sidc.be ) confirmed that a new solar activity was initiated in December 2019, during which a novel coronavirus pandemic also occurred, and present a same as the previous hypothesis. Nevertheless, a higher number of pandemic outbreaks were documented during low minimum solar activities, including Ebola (1976), H5N1 (Nipah) (1967–1968), H1N1 (2009), and COVID-19 (2019–current). Furthermore, Wickramasinghe and Qu [ 49 ] reported that since 1918 or 1919, more devastating and recurrent pandemics tend to occur, particularly after a century. Consequently, within 100 years, a sudden surge of influenza was recorded, and novel influenza was hypothesised to emerge.

Figure  4 demonstrates that low minimum solar activity significantly reduced before 2020, hence substantiating the claim that pandemic events are closely related to solar activities. Moreover, numerous studies (i.e. [ 43 ], Chandra [ 46 , 47 , 48 ]) reported that during solar minimums, new viruses could penetrate the surfaces of the earth and high solar radiation would result in lower infection rates, supporting the hypothesis mentioned above.

The number of sunspots in the last 13 years. Note : The yellow curve indicates the daily sunspot number and the 2010–2021 delineated curve illustrates the minimum solar activity recorded (source: http://sidc.be/silso )

Regional area

In early December 2019, Wuhan, China, was reported as the centre of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak [ 50 ]. Chinese health authorities immediately investigated and controlled the spread of the disease. Nevertheless, by late January 2020, the WHO announced that COVID-19 was a global public health emergency. The upgrade was due to the rapid rise in confirmed cases, which were no longer limited to Wuhan [ 28 ]. The disease had spread to 24 other countries, which were mainly in the northern hemisphere, particularly the European and Western Pacific regions, such as France, United Kingdom, Spain, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Indonesia [ 51 , 52 ]. The migration or movement of humans was the leading agent in the spread of COVID-19, resulting in an almost worldwide COVID-19 pandemic [ 53 ].

The first hotspots of the epidemic outspread introduced by the Asian and Western Pacific regions possessed similar winter climates with an average temperature and humidity rate of 5–11 °C and 47–79%. Consequently, several publications reviewed in the current study associated the COVID-19 outbreak with regional climates (i.e. [ 1 , 29 , 54 , 55 ]) instead of its close connection to China. This review also discussed the effects of a range of specific climatological variables on the transmission and epidemiology of COVID-19 in regional climatic conditions.

America and Europe documented the highest COVID-19 cases, outnumbering the number reported in Asia [ 19 ] and on the 2nd of December 2020, the United States of America (USA) reported the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 infections, with over 13,234,551 cases and 264,808 mortalities (Da S [ 56 ].). The cases in the USA began emerging in March 2020 and peaked in late November 2020, during the wintertime in the northern hemisphere (December to March) [ 53 ]. Figure  5 demonstrates the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several country which represent comparison two phase of summer and one phase of winter. Most of these countries tend to increase of COVID cases close to winter season. Then, it can be worsening on phase two of summer due to do not under control of human movement although the normal trend it is presenting during winter phase.

The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic from the 15th of February 2020 to the 2nd of December 2020 ( Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus )

The coronavirus spread aggressively across the European region, which recorded the second highest COVID-19 confirmed cases after America. At the end of 2020, WHO reported 19,071,275 Covid-19 cases in the area, where France documented 2,183,275 cases, the European country with the highest number of confirmed cases, followed by the United Kingdom (1,629,661 cases) and Spain (1,652,801 cases) [ 19 ]. Europe is also located in the northern hemisphere and possesses a temperate climate.

The spatial and temporal transmission patterns of coronavirus infection in the European region were similar to America and the Eastern Mediterranean, where the winter season increased COVID-19 cases. Typically, winter in Europe occurs at the beginning of October and ends in March. Hardy et al. [ 57 ] also stated that temperature commonly drops below freezing (approximately − 1 °C) when snow accumulates between December to mid-March, resulting in an extreme environment. Figure 5 indicates that COVID-19 cases peaked in October when the temperature became colder [ 21 ]. Similarly, the cases were the highest in the middle of the year in Australia and South Asian countries, such as India, that experience winter and monsoon, respectively, during the period.

In African regions, the outbreak of COVID-19 escalated rapidly from June to October before falling from October to March, as summer in South Africa generally occurs from November to March, while winter from June to August. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall generally transpires during summer, hence the warm and humid conditions in South Africa and Namibia during summer, while the opposite happens during winter (cold and dry). Consequently, the outbreak in the region recorded an increasing trend during winter and subsided during the summer, supporting the report by Gunthe et al. [ 58 ]. Novel coronavirus disease presents unique and grave challenges in Africa, as it has for the rest of the world. However, the infrastructure and resources have limitations for Africa countries facing COVID-19 pandemic and the threat of other diseases [ 59 ].

Conclusively, seasonal and regional climate patterns were associated with COVID-19 outbreaks globally. According to Kraemer et al. [ 60 ], they used real-time mobility data in Wuhan and early measurement presented a positive correlation between human mobility and spread of COVID-19 cases. However, after the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan.

Climate and weather

The term “weather” represents the changes in the environment that occur daily and in a short period, while “climate” is defined as atmospheric changes happening over a long time (over 3 months) in specific regions. Consequently, different locations would experience varying climates. Numerous reports suggested climate and weather variabilities as the main drivers that sped or slowed the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide [ 44 , 61 , 62 , 63 ].

From a meteorological perspective, a favourable environment has led to the continued existence of the COVID-19 virus in the atmosphere [ 64 ]. Studies demonstrated that various meteorological conditions, such as the rate of relative humidity (i.e. [ 28 ]), precipitation (i.e. [ 65 ]), temperature (i.e. [ 66 ]), and wind speed factors (i.e. [ 54 ]), were the crucial components that contributed to the dynamic response of the pandemic, influencing either the mitigation or exacerbation of novel coronavirus transmission. In other words, the environment was considered the medium for spreading the disease when other health considerations were put aside. Consequently, new opinions, knowledge, and findings are published and shared to increase awareness, thus encouraging preventive measures within the public.

The coronavirus could survive in temperatures under 30 °C with a relative humidity of less than 80% [ 67 ], suggesting that high temperatures and lower relative humidity contributed to the elicitation of COVID-19 cases [ 18 , 51 , 58 , 68 ]. Lagtayi et al. [ 7 ] highlighted temperature as a critical factor, evidently from the increased transmission rate of MERS-Cov in African states with a warm and dry climate. Similarly, the highest COVID-19 cases were recorded in dry temperate regions, especially in western Europe (France and Spain), China, and the USA, while the countries nearer to the equator were less affected. Nevertheless, the temperature factor relative to viral infections depends on the protein available in the viruses. According to Chen and Shakhnovich [ 69 ], there is a good correlation between decreasing temperature and the growth of proteins in virus. Consequently, preventive measures that take advantage of conducive environments for specific viruses are challenging.

Precipitation also correlates with influenza [ 43 ]. A report demonstrated that regions with at least 150 mm of monthly precipitation threshold level experienced fewer cases than regions with lower precipitation rates. According to Martins et al. [ 70 ], influenza and COVID-19 can be affected by climate, where virus can be spread through the respiratory especially during rainfall season. The daily spread of Covid-19 cases in tropical countries, which receive high precipitation levels, are far less than in temperate countries [ 27 ]. Likewise, high cases of COVID-19 were reported during the monsoon season (mid-year) in India during which high rainfall is recorded [ 71 ]. Moreover, the majority of the population in these regions has lower vitamin D levels, which may contribute to weakened immune responses during certain seasons [ 27 ].

Rainfall increases the relative atmospheric humidity, which is unfavourable to the coronaviruses as its transmission requires dry and cold weather. Moreover, several reports hypothesised that rain could wash away viruses on object surfaces, which is still questioned. Most people prefer staying home on rainy days, allowing less transmission or close contact. Conversely, [ 72 ] exhibited that precipitation did not significantly impact COVID-19 infectiousness in Oslo, Norway due the location in northern hemisphere which are during winter season presenting so cold.

Coşkun et al. [ 54 ] and Wu et al. [ 29 ] claimed that wind could strongly correlate with the rate of COVID-19 transmission. Atmospheric instability (turbulent occurrences) leads to increased wind speed and reduces the dispersion of particulate matter (PM 2.5 and PM 10 ) in the environment and among humans. An investigation performed in 55 cities in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak proved that the areas with low wind movement (stable atmospheric conditions) possessed a higher correlation coefficient and exceeded the threshold value of the safe level of PM 2.5 and PM 10 . Resultantly, more individuals were recorded infected with the disease in the regions. As mentioned in Martins et al. [ 70 ] the COVID-19 can be affected by climate and the virus can be spread through respiratory which is the virus moving in the wind movement.

The relationship between temperature and humidity

Climatic parameters, such as temperature and humidity, were investigated as the crucial factors in the epidemiology of the respiratory virus survival and transmission of COVID-19 ([ 61 ]; S [ 73 , 74 ].). The rising number of confirmed cases indicated the strong transmission ability of COVID-19 and was related to meteorological parameters. Furthermore, several studies found that the disease transmission was associated with the temperature and humidity of the environment [ 55 , 64 , 68 , 75 ], while other investigations have examined and reviewed environmental factors that could influence the epidemiological aspects of Covid-19.

Generally, increased COVID-19 cases and deaths corresponded with temperature, humidity, and viral transmission and mortality. Various studies reported that colder and dryer environments favoured COVID-19 epidemiologically [ 45 , 76 , 77 ]. As example tropical region, the observations indicated that the summer (middle of year) and rainy seasons (end of the year) could effectively diminish the transmission and mortality from COVID-19. High precipitation statistically increases relative air humidity, which is unfavourable for the survival of coronavirus, which prefers dry and cold conditions [ 32 , 34 , 78 , 79 ]. Consequently, warmer conditions could reduce COVID-19 transmission. A 1 °C increase in the temperature recorded a decrease in confirmed cases by 8% increase [ 45 ].

Several reports established that the minimum, maximum, and average temperature and humidity correlated with COVID-19 occurrence and mortality [ 55 , 80 , 81 ]. The lowest and highest temperatures of 24 and 27.3 °C and a humidity between 76 and 91% were conducive to spreading the virulence agents. The propagation of the disease peaked at the average temperature of 26 °C and humidity of 55% before gradually decreasing with elevated temperature and humidity [ 78 ].

Researchers are still divided on the effects of temperature and humidity on coronavirus transmission. Xu et al. [ 26 ] confirmed that COVID-19 cases gradually increased with higher temperature and lower humidity, indicating that the virus was actively transmitted in warm and dry conditions. Nevertheless, several reports stated that the spread of COVID-19 was negatively correlated with temperature and humidity [ 10 , 29 , 63 ]. The conflicting findings require further investigation. Moreover, other factors, such as population density, elderly population, cultural aspects, and health interventions, might potentially influence the epidemiology of the disease and necessitate research.

Governmental disinfection actions and guidelines

The COVID-19 is a severe health threat that is still spreading worldwide. The epidemiology of the SAR-CoV-2 virus might be affected by several factors, including meteorological conditions (temperature and humidity), population density, and healthcare quality, that permit it to spread rapidly [ 16 , 17 ]. Nevertheless, in 2020, no effective pharmaceutical interventions or vaccines were available for the diagnosis, treatment, and epidemic prevention against COVID-19 [ 73 , 82 ]. Consequently, after 2020 the governments globally have designed and executed non-pharmacological public health measures, such as lockdown, travel bans, social distancing, quarantine, public place closure, and public health actions, to curb the spread of COVID-19 infections and several studies have reported on the effects of these plans [ 13 , 83 ].

The COVID-19 is mainly spread via respiratory droplets from an infected person’s mouth or nose to another in close contact [ 84 ]. Accordingly, WHO and most governments worldwide have recommended wearing facemasks in public areas to curb the transmission of COVID-19. The facemasks would prevent individuals from breathing COVID-19-contaminated air [ 85 ]. Furthermore, the masks could hinder the transmission of the virus from an infected person as the exhaled air is trapped in droplets collected on the masks, suspending it in the atmosphere for longer. The WHO also recommended adopting a proper hand hygiene routine to prevent transmission and employing protective equipment, such as gloves and body covers, especially for health workers [ 86 ].

Besides wearing protective equipment, social distancing was also employed to control the Covid-19 outbreak [ 74 , 87 ]. Social distancing hinders the human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in the form of droplets from the mouth and nose, as evidenced by the report from Sun and Zhai [ 88 ]. Conversely, Nair & Selvaraj [ 89 ] demonstrated that social distancing was less effective in communities and cultures where gatherings are the norm. Nonetheless, the issue could be addressed by educating the public and implementing social distancing policies, such as working from home and any form of plague treatment.

Infected persons, individuals who had contact with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients, and persons living in areas with high transmission rates were recommended to undergo quarantine by WHO. The quarantine could be implemented voluntarily or legally enforced by authorities and applicable to individuals, groups, or communities (community containment) [ 90 ]. A person under mandatory quarantine must stay in a place for a recommended 14-day period, based on the estimated incubation period of the SARS-CoV-2 [ 19 , 91 ]. According to Stasi et al. [ 92 ], 14-days period for mandatory quarantine it is presenting a clinical improvement after they found 5-day group and 10-day group can be decrease number of patient whose getting effect of COVID-19 from 64 to 54% respectively. This also proven by Ahmadi et al. [ 43 ] and Foad et al. [ 93 ], quarantining could reduce the transmission of COVID-19.

Lockdown and travel bans, especially in China, the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, reduced the infection rate and the correlation of domestic air traffic with COVID-19 cases [ 17 ]. The observations were supported by Sun & Zhai [ 88 ] and Sun et al. [ 94 ], who noted that travel restrictions diminished the number of COVID-19 reports by 75.70% compared to baseline scenarios without restrictions. Furthermore, example in Malaysia, lockdowns improved the air quality of polluted areas especially in primarily at main cities [ 95 ]. As additional, Martins et al. [ 70 ] measure the Human Development Index (HDI) with the specific of socio-economic variables as income, education and health. In their study, the income and education levels are the main relevant factors that affect the socio-economic.

A mandatory lockdown is an area under movement control as a preventive measure to stop the coronavirus from spreading to other areas. Numerous governments worldwide enforced the policy to restrict public movements outside their homes during the pandemic. Resultantly, human-to-human transmission of the virus was effectively reduced. The lockdown and movement control order were also suggested for individuals aged 80 and above or with low or compromised immunities, as these groups possess a higher risk of contracting the disease [ 44 ].

Governments still enforced movement orders even after the introduction of vaccines by Pfizer, Moderna, and Sinovac, as the vaccines only protect high-risk individuals from the worst effects of COVID-19. Consequently, in most countries, after receiving the first vaccine dose, individuals were allowed to resume life as normal but were still required to follow the standard operating procedures (SOP) outlined by the government.

The government attempted to balance preventing COVID-19 spread and recovering economic activities, for example, local businesses, maritime traders, shipping activities, oil and gas production and economic trades [ 22 , 96 ]. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 cases demonstrated an increasing trend during the summer due to the higher number of people travelling and on vacation, primarily to alleviate stress from lockdowns. Several new variants were discovered, including the Delta and Omicron strains, which spread in countries such as the USA and the United Kingdom. The high number of COVID-19 cases prompted the WHO to suggest booster doses to ensure full protection.

As mentioned in this manuscript, the COVID-19 still uncertain for any kind factors that can be affected on spreading of this virus. However, regarding many sources of COVID-19 study, the further assessment on this factor need to be continue to be sure, that we ready to facing probably in 10 years projection of solar minimum phase can be held in same situation for another pandemic.

The sun has an eleven-year cycle known as the solar cycle, related to its magnetic field, which controls the activities on its surface through sunspots. When the magnetic fields are active, numerous sunspots are formed on its surface, hence the sun produces more radiation energy emitted to the earth. The condition is termed solar maximum (see Fig.  6 , denoted by the yellow boxes). Alternatively, as the magnetic field of the sun weakens, the number of sunspots decreases, resulting in less radiation energy being emitted to the earth. The phenomenon is known as the solar minimum (see Fig. 6 , represented by the blue boxes).

The emergence and recurrence of pandemics every 5 years in relation to solar activities ( Source: www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ). Note: The yellow boxes indicate the solar maximum, while the blue boxes represent the solar minimum

The magnetic field of the sun protects the earth from cosmic or galactic cosmic rays emitted by supernova explosions, stars, and gamma-ray bursts [ 97 ]. Nevertheless, galactic cosmic rays could still reach the earth during the solar minimum, the least solar radiation energy period. In the 20th and early 21st centuries, several outbreaks of viral diseases that affected the respiratory system (pneumonia or influenza), namely the Spanish (1918–1919), Asian (1957–1958) and Hong Kong (1968) flu, were documented. Interestingly, the diseases that claimed numerous lives worldwide occurred at the peak of the solar maximum.

Figure  6 illustrates the correlation between the number of sunspots and disease outbreaks from 1975 to 2021, including COVID-19, that began to escalate in December 2019. Under the solar minimum conditions, the spread of Ebola (1976), H5N1 (1997–1998), H1N1 (2009), and COVID-19 (2019-2020) were documented, while the solar maximum phenomenon recorded SARS (2002) and H7N9 (2012–2013) or MERS outbreaks. Nonetheless, solar activity through the production of solar sunspots began to decline since the 22nd solar cycle. Accordingly, further studies are necessary to investigate the influence such solar variations could impart or not on pandemic development.

Despite the findings mentioned above, the sun and cosmic radiations could influence the distribution or outspread of disease-spreading viruses. The rays could kill the viruses via DNA destruction or influence their genetic mutations, which encourage growth and viral evolution. Nevertheless, the connection between radiation and the evolutionary process requires further study by specialists in the field it is become true or not.

The spread of viral diseases transpires naturally in our surroundings and occurs unnoticed by humans. According to records, the spread of pandemic diseases, including the Black Death (fourteenth century) and the Spanish flu (1919), was significantly influenced by the decline and peak of solar activities. Furthermore, in the past 20 years, various diseases related to the influenza virus have been recorded. According to the pattern observed, if all diseases were related to the solar cycle (solar maximum and minimum), the viral diseases would reoccur every 5 to 6 years since they first appeared between 1995 and 2020. Accordingly, the next pandemic might occur around 2024 or 2025 and need to have a proper study for prove these statements. Nonetheless, the activities on the surface of the sun have been weakening since the 23rd solar cycle and it can be proven later after the proper study can be make it.

The beginning of the COVID-19 spread, only several countries with the same winter climate with an average temperature of 5–11 °C and an average humidity rate of 47–79% located at latitudes 30–50 N reported cases. The areas included Wuhan distribution centres in China, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, South Korea, Japan, and the USA (see Fig.  5 ). Other than biological aspects, the higher number of confirmed cases recorded in colder environments was due to the human body secreting less lymphoproliferative hormone, leading to decreased immunogenicity effects and increased risk of infection [ 24 ]. Consequently, the virus could attack and rapidly infect humans during the period [ 1 , 54 ].

The lymphoproliferative response is a protective immune response that plays a vital role in protecting and eradicating infections and diseases. On the other hand, staying in warm conditions or being exposed to more sunlight would lower the risks of infection. According to Asyary and Veruswati [ 98 ], sunlight triggers vitamin D, which increases immunity and increases the recovery rates of infected individuals.

Researchers believe that viruses could survive in the environment for up to 3 to 4 years or even longer. The survival rate of the microorganisms is relatively high, which is related to their biological structures, adaptability on any surfaces, and transmission medium to spread diseases. Viruses possess simple protein structures, namely the spike, membrane, and envelope protein; therefore, when they enter living organisms (such as through the respiratory system), the viruses are easily transmitted.

Once they have entered a host, the viruses duplicate exponentially and swarm the lungs. Subsequently, after the targeted organs, such as the lungs, are invaded, the viruses attack the immune system and create confusion in protective cells to destroy healthy cells. The situation is still considered safe in younger and healthy individuals as their immune systems could differentiate and counter-attack the viruses, curing them. Nonetheless, in elders and individuals with several chronic diseases, most of their protective cells are dead, hence their immune system is forced to work hard to overcome the infection. Pneumonia and death tend to occur when the situation is overwhelming [ 85 ]. Consequently, the viruses are harmful to humans as they could multiply in a short period, enter the blood, and overrun the body.

The coronavirus could attach to surfaces without a host, including door knobs and steel and plastic materials. The microorganisms could survive alone, but virologists have yet to determine how long. If someone touches any surface with the virus, the individual would then be infected. The situation would worsen if the infected person contacted numerous people and became a super spreader. A super spreader does not exhibit any symptoms and continuously transmits the virus without realising it. An infected individual transmits the coronavirus via droplets from coughs or sneezes. Nevertheless, scientists have yet to determine if coronavirus is spread via airborne or droplets, hence requiring thorough evaluation [ 99 ].

The COVID-19 virus mutates over time, and it can be changing any times. Mutations alter the behaviour and genetic structure of the virus, resulting in a new strain. Numerous research have been conducted to procure vaccines and anti-viral medications, but mutations have led to evolutionary disadvantages. The novel strains are more infectious than the original ones. As of November 2020, approximately six new coronavirus strains have been detected, each displaying different transmission behaviours [ 100 ].

Recent studies demonstrated that the mutated viruses exhibit little variability, allowing scientists to produce viable vaccines [ 71 ]. Furthermore, different types of vaccines are manufactured by different countries, which could be advantageous. Currently, most countries also recommend booster doses to attain extra protection after receiving the mandatory two vaccine doses. In same time, the social and physical interactions between humans also necessitate to be aware.

The COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted through droplets produced by an infected person. Accordingly, physical distancing, a one-metre minimum distance between individuals [ 19 ], and following the SOP might prevent or avoid spreading the disease. Moreover, self-quarantine, school closures, working from home, cancelling large events, limiting gatherings, and avoiding spending long periods in crowded places are essential strategies in enforcing physical distancing at a community level. The policies are essential precautions that could reduce the further spreading of coronavirus and break the chain of transmission.

Government support also need to control the spread of COVID-19 with the strict SOP. The SOP enforcement in public places would enhance adherence to the new practice among the public and the community, aiding in curbing disease transmission. Practising limited meetings and social gatherings, avoiding crowded places, workplace distancing, preventing non-necessary travels of high-risk family members, especially those with chronic disease, and adhering to the recommended SOP could reduce coronavirus outbreaks. Nonetheless, individual awareness is also necessary to achieve COVID-19 spread prevention.

Many researchers are focused on identifying the primary drivers of pandemic outbreaks. Seasonal, temperature, and humidity differences significantly impacted COVID-19 growth rate variations. It is crucial to highlight the potential link between the recurrence of pandemics every 5 years and solar activities, which can influence temperature and humidity variations. Notable variations in COVID-19 mortality rates were observed between northern and southern hemisphere countries, with the former having higher rates. One hypothesis suggests that populations in the northern hemisphere may receive insufficient sunlight to maintain optimal vitamin D levels during winter, possibly leading to higher mortality rates.

The first COVID-19 case was detected in Wuhan, China, which is in the northern hemisphere. The number of cases rapidly propagated in December during the winter season. At the time, the temperature in Wuhan was recorded at 13–18 °C. Accordingly, one theory proposes that the survival and transmission of the coronavirus were due to meteorological conditions, namely temperatures between 13 and 18 °C and 50–80% humidity.

Daily rainfall directly impacts humidity levels. The coronavirus exhibited superior survival rates in cold and dry conditions. Furthermore, transmissible gastroenteritis (TGEV) suspensions and possibly other coronaviruses remain viable longer in their airborne states, which are more reliably collected in low relative humidity than in high humidity. Consequently, summer rains would effectively reduce COVID-19 transmission in southern hemisphere regions.

In southern hemisphere regions, the summer seasons are accompanied by a high average temperature at the end and beginning of the year. Countries with temperatures exceeding 24 °C reported fewer infections. As temperatures rise from winter to summer, virus transmission is expected to decline. Nonetheless, the activities and transmission of the virus were expected to decrease during winter to summer transitions, when the countries would be warmer. The peak intensity of infections strongly depends on the level of seasonal transmissions.

Social distancing plays a critical role in preventing the overload of healthcare systems. Many respiratory pathogens, including those causing mild common cold-like syndromes, show seasonal fluctuations, often peaking in winter. This trend can be attributed to increased indoor crowding, school reopening, and climatic changes during autumn.

The spread of COVID-19 to neighbouring regions can be attributed to population interactions. Migration patterns, such as the movement from northern to southern regions during the warmer months, have significant epidemiological impacts. This trend mirrors the behavior of influenza pandemics where minor outbreaks in spring or summer are often followed by major waves in autumn or winter.

Availability of data and materials

Not applicable.

Abbreviations

Novel coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019

Deoxyribonucleic acid

Swine influenza

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Asian Lineage Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus

Middle East respiratory syndrome

Middle East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus

Particulate matter

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses

RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Syndrome coronavirus 2

Systematic literature review

Standard operating procedure

Transmissible gastroenteritis Virus

United States of America

World Health Organization

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Menhat, M., Ariffin, E.H., Dong, W.S. et al. Rain, rain, go away, come again another day: do climate variations enhance the spread of COVID-19?. Global Health 20 , 43 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-024-01044-w

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High school students, frustrated by lack of climate education, press for change

Youth activists pushing for more climate education in Minnesota schools say working with peers to draft legislation gives them hope for a future under threat. (AP Video: Mark Vancleave)

B Rosas, left, Lucia Everist, center, and Libby Kramer, of Climate Generation, speak to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. The advocates called on the council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

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Libby Kramer, left, Lucia Everist, center, and B Rosas, of Climate Generation, speak to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. The advocates called on the council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Lucia Everist, of Climate Generation, center, speaks to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. The advocates called on the council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

FILE - Water floods a damaged trailer park in Fort Myers, Fla., Oct. 1, 2022, after Hurricane Ian passed by the area. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Minnesota Sen. Nicole Mitchell, left, sits with members of Climate Generation, from second left, B Rosas, Lucia Everist, Libby Kramer and Minnesota Rep. Larry Kraft, right, as they speak the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. The advocates called on the council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Libby Kramer, of Climate Generation, right, speaks to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. The advocates called on the council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

B Rosas, back left, Lucia Everist, back center, and Libby Kramer, back right, of Climate Generation, speak to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. The advocates called on the council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Several dozen young people wearing light blue T-shirts imprinted with #teachclimate filled a hearing room in the Minnesota Capitol in St. Paul in late February. It was a cold and windy day, in contrast to the state’s nearly snowless, warm winter.

The high school and college students and other advocates, part of group Climate Generation, called on the Minnesota Youth Council, a liaison between young people and state lawmakers, to support a bill requiring schools to teach more about climate change .

Ethan Vue, who grew up with droughts and extreme temperatures in California, now lives in Minnesota and is a high school senior pushing for the bill.

“I just remember seeing my classmates always sweating, and they’d even drench themselves in water from the water fountains,” Vue said in a phone interview, noting climate change is making heat waves longer and hotter, but they didn’t learn about that in school.

“The topic is brushed on. If anything, we just learn about, there’s global warming, the planet’s warming up.”

Libby Kramer, left, Lucia Everist, center, and B Rosas, of Climate Generation, speak to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

In places that teach to standards formulated by the National Science Teachers Association, state governments and other organizations, many kids learn about air quality, ecosystems, biodiversity and land and water in Earth and environmental science classes.

But students and advocates say that is insufficient. They are demanding districts, boards and state lawmakers require more teaching about the planet’s warming and would like it woven into more subjects.

Some states and school districts have moved in the opposite direction. In Texas , the board of education turned down books with climate information. In Florida, school materials deny climate change .

“Someone could theoretically go through middle school and high school without really ever acknowledging the climate crisis,” said Jacob Friedman, a high school senior in Florida who hasn’t learned about climate except for in elective classes. “Or even acknowledging that there is an issue of global warming.”

That’s bizarre to Friedman, who experienced firsthand when Hurricane Ian closed nearby schools and submerged homes in 2022.

A study conducted after the storm found that climate change added at least 10% more rain to Hurricane Ian. Experts also say hurricanes are intensifying faster because of the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that are collecting heat and warming the oceans.

“What an unfair reality to have a young person graduate from high school,” said Leah Qusba, executive director of nonprofit Action for the Climate Emergency, “without knowing about the biggest existential threat that they’re going to face in their lifetime.”

Some places are adding more instruction on the subject. In 2020, New Jersey required teaching climate change at all grade levels. Connecticut followed, then California. More than two dozen new measures across 10 states were introduced last year, according to the National Center for Science Education.

Libby Kramer, of Climate Generation, right, speaks to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

Where some proposals require teaching the basic science and human causes of climate change , the Minnesota bill goes further, requiring state officials to guide schools on teaching climate justice, including the idea that the changes hit disadvantaged communities harder .

Some legislators say they’ve heard from school administrators and teachers who say that goes too far.

“What was said to me is: ‘Why are we pushing a political perspective, a political agenda?’” Minnesota Rep. Ben Bakeberg, a Republican, said during a House Education Policy Committee hearing in March 2023. “That’s a reality.”

The bill didn’t advance in the 2023 session. Now it hasn’t this year either. Supporters say they will try again next year.

Aware of such opposition, some students interested in climate opt to campaign at their schools rather than through the legislative process.

Three years ago, floods destroyed Ariela Lara’s mom’s village in Oaxaca, Mexico, while they were visiting. Then Lara came home to California and was hit by smoke-filled skies caused by wildfires that pushed thousands to evacuate or be stuck inside for weeks.

Yet despite what she was seeing, Lara felt in school she was only taught about recycling and carbon footprints, a measure of a person’s personal greenhouse gas emissions.

So she went to the board of education.

“I had to really think about how I could go to the people in power to really rewrite the curriculum we were learning,” Lara said. “It would get so tiresome because for me, I was the one that was really trying to enforce it.”

By the time her school offered Advanced Placement Environmental Science, Lara was too senior to enroll in it. AP Enviro does cover climate change , according to the College Board, but it’s also more broad.

B Rosas, back left, Lucia Everist, back center, and Libby Kramer, back right, of Climate Generation, speak to the Minnesota Youth Council, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

When targeted efforts don’t work, some students feel they’re on their own.

For high school junior Siyeon Joo, climate education seems like a no-brainer where she lives in Lafayette, Louisiana, which was hit hard by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and has been affected by several other intense storms and heat waves.

But Joo wasn’t exposed to climate change at her public middle school and an educator there once told her it wasn’t real.

“I remember sitting in that classroom,” the now-16-year-old said, “being really angry that that was the system that was being forced upon me at the time.”

It took enrolling in a private school for Joo to learn about these topics. Many students don’t have that option.

Experts say climate material could be worked into lessons without burdening schools or putting the onus on students. But much like with legislation, that will take time students say they don’t have.

“I was part of these communities that were really just affirming how much is at stake if we don’t take action,” said Lara, the student in California, recalling how important to her it would have been to receive education about her experiences. “You should be able to go to school and learn about the gravity which the climate crisis is at.”

Alexa St. John reported from Detroit and Doug Glass reported from St. Paul, Minn.

Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate solutions reporter. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, @alexa_stjohn . Reach her at [email protected] .

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .

Summer of 2023 was hottest in 2,000 years, study finds

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An extreme summer marked by deadly heat waves, explosive wildfires and record warm ocean temperatures will go down as among the hottest in the last 2,000 years, new research has found.

The summer of 2023 saw the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere soar 3.72 degrees above the average from 1850 to 1900, when modern instrumental recordkeeping began, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature. The study focused on surface air temperatures across the extra-tropical region, which sits at 30 to 90 degrees north latitude and includes most of Europe and North America.

June, July and August last year were also 3.96 degrees warmer than the average from the years 1 through 1890, which the researchers calculated by combining observed records with tree ring records from nine global regions.

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Jan Esper, the study’s lead author and a professor of climate geography at Johannes Gutenberg University in Germany, said that he was not expecting summer last year to be quite so anomalous, but that he was ultimately not surprised by the findings. The high temperatures built on an overall warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions and were further amplified by the onset of El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

“It’s no surprise — this really, really outstanding 2023 — but it was also, step-wise, a continuation of a trend that will continue,” Esper told reporters Monday. “Personally I’m not surprised, but I am worried.”

He said it was important to place 2023’s temperature extreme in a long-term context. The difference between the region’s previous warmest summer, in the year 246, and the summer of 2023 is 2.14 degrees, the study found.

The heat is even more extreme when compared with the region’s coldest summers — the majority of which were influenced by volcanic eruptions that spewed heat-blocking sulfur into the stratosphere. According to the study, 2023’s summer was 7.07 degrees warmer than the coldest reconstructed summer from this period, in the year 536.

“Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gases-induced warming trend that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction,” the study says.

The sweltering summer temperatures contributed to scores of heat illnesses and deaths, including at least 645 heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County, Ariz., where Phoenix saw temperatures of 110 degrees or hotter for a record 31 consecutive days.

Wildfires exacerbated by high temperatures raged across Canada and sent hazardous smoke down the East Coast of the United States and across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, ocean temperatures off Florida soared above 101 degrees , the temperature of a hot tub.

Climate & Environment

Warmest April on record extends planet’s hot streak to 11 months

With an average surface temperature of 59.05 degrees, the month was about 0.25 of a degree warmer than the previous hottest April, in 2016.

May 8, 2024

Multiple climate agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, have declared 2023 the hottest year on record globally.

Notably, Copernicus found that the summer months of June, July and August last year measured 1.18 degrees warmer than average — still hot, but not nearly as warm as the study’s findings for the Northern Hemisphere’s extra-tropical region.

That region was especially hot in part because it is home to so much land, which warms faster than oceans, said Karen McKinnon, an assistant professor of statistics and the environment at UCLA who did not work on the study. (June, July and August are also winter months in the Southern Hemisphere.)

McKinnon said the study’s findings are not unexpected, as there was already good evidence that the summer of 2023 was record-breaking when compared with measurable data going back to the mid-1800s. But by going back 2,000 years, the researchers also helped illuminate “the full range of natural variability that could have occurred in the past,” she said.

She noted that tree rings can serve as a helpful proxy for climate conditions in the past, as trees tend to grow more in a given year if they receive the right amount of warmth, water and sunshine. But although last year’s heat was undeniable, the study also underscores that the summer temperature in this region was notably higher than the global target of 2.7 degrees — or 1.5 degrees Celsius — of warming over the preindustrial period, which was established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2015.

It also notes that some recent research has found the data used to calculate that baseline may be off by several tenths of a degree, meaning it could need to be recalibrated, with the target landing closer to an even more challenging 1.6 or 1.7 degrees.

“I don’t think we should use the proxy instead of the instrumental data, but there’s a good indication that there’s a warm bias,” Esper said. “Further research is needed.”

World & Nation

The planet is dangerously close to this climate threshold. Here’s what 1.5°C really means

Every bit of planetary warming will have impacts beyond those already occurring, including biodiversity loss, longer heat waves and extreme rainfall.

Feb. 1, 2024

McKinnon said there is always going to be some degree of uncertainty when comparing present-day temperatures to past temperatures, but that the 1.5-degree limit is as symbolic as it is literal. Many effects of climate change, including worsening heat waves, have already begun.

“There are definitely tipping points in the climate system, but we don’t understand the climate system well enough to say 1.5 C is the temperature for certain tipping points,” she said. “This is just a policy goal that gives you a temperature change that maybe would be consistent with averting some damages.”

In fact, the study’s publication comes days after a survey of 380 leading scientists from the IPCC revealed deep concerns about the world’s ability to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. That report, published last week in the Guardian , found that only 6% of surveyed scientists think the 1.5-degree limit will be met. Nearly 80% said they foresee at least 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

The report caused a stir among the scientific community, with some saying it focused too heavily on pessimism and despair. But Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA who participated in the survey, said its findings are worthy of consideration.

“There are many kinds of scientists, myself included, who are very worried and concerned and increasingly alarmed by what is going on and what the data is showing,” Swain said during a briefing Friday . “But if anything, I think that really results in a stronger sense of resolve and urgency to do even more, and to do better.”

Indeed, while scientists continue to weigh in on whether — or how quickly — humanity can alter the planet’s worsening warming trajectory, Esper said he hopes the latest study will serve as motivation for changing outdated modes of energy consumption that contribute to planet-warming greenhouse gases.

“I am concerned about global warming — I think it’s one of the biggest threats out there,” he said.

He added that he is particularly worried for his children and for younger generations who will bear the brunt of adverse climate outcomes. There is a strong likelihood that the summer of 2024 will be even hotter, the study says.

“The longer we wait, the more extensive it will be, and the more difficult it will be to mitigate or even stop that process and reverse it,” Esper said. “It’s just so obvious: We should do as much as possible, as soon as possible.”

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Hayley Smith is an environment reporter for the Los Angeles Times, where she covers the many ways climate change is reshaping life in California, including drought, floods, wildfires and deadly heat.

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Environment | Climate-change research project aboard USS…

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Environment | update: eastbound lanes reopen on bay bridge as crews put out grass fire, environment | climate-change research project aboard uss hornet paused for environmental review, after city raised concerns, scientists agreed to delay but reasserted safety of spraying salt water into air.

The city asked the Hornet’s administrators and the University of Washington to stop the experiment, stating it was in violation of the Hornet’s lease with the city and was taking place without the city’s knowledge, officials announced in a Facebook post May 4. The experiment is not allowed under the ship’s museum operations outlined in its lease, Jennifer Ott, Alameda’s city manager, wrote in a letter to the Hornet which was shared with Bay Area News Group by the city.

The city has contracted biological and hazardous material consultants to independently investigate the environmental safety and health of the experiment, officials said in the post, adding that “there is no indication that the spray from the previous experiments presented a threat to human health or the environment.”

The program stopped its experiments prior to Alameda’s public announcement, according to a statement released by Dr. Rob Wood, principal investigator and Dr. Sarah Doherty, program director. The scientists added that the city was informed of the study’s corresponding educational exhibit in advance but asked for a closer review of the study after news articles released details in April.

“This type of review was not unexpected given that the approach in undertaking the studies and engaging with the public on the USS Hornet … is something new,” Wood and Doherty wrote. “We are happy to support their review and it has been a highly constructive process so far.”

The Marine Cloud Brightening Project aims to test whether ejecting plumes of microscopic droplets of salt water into the clouds will make them more reflective, helping to counteract warming climates by sending heat back up into the sky instead of allowing it down to the ground. Based out of the University of Washington, the program partnered with the U.S.S. Hornet, a World War II-era aircraft carrier-turned museum which is perpetually docked on the coast of Alameda, to conduct experiments on its top deck.

The team of scientists and engineers developed the spray technology and nozzle designs over the course of several years in the lab and launched the next phase of the study — testing whether the theory works in actual atmospheric conditions — in April. Scientists had planned to test the technology over the course of several months and measure its effectiveness with computer models.

Before beginning tests on the Hornet, the program went through an expert assessment of requirements and “found that the study does not exceed established regulatory or permitting thresholds,” Wood and Doherty wrote. The plumes of salt water “operate well below established thresholds for environmental or human health impact for emissions.”

A comment on the city’s Facebook post from the USS Hornet’s account read in part: “We believed that our existing permits and lease covered these activities when we started. As we now know, there was a gap in communication and understanding of the scope of the project and we are committed to working with the City to meet all of their needs regarding this effort.”

The findings will be presented to the Alameda City Council in June and will be shared with the public, according to the post.

“We continue to appreciate our engagement with the community on the nature of this type of research study, which is not designed to impact clouds, the environment or climate,” Wood and Doherty wrote.

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Century of statistical ecology reviewed

Crunching numbers isn't exactly how Neil Gilbert, a postdoctoral researcher at Michigan State University, envisioned a career in ecology.

"I think it's a little funny that I'm doing this statistical ecology work because I was always OK at math, but never particularly enjoyed it," he explained. "As an undergrad, I thought, I'll be an ecologist -- that means that I can be outside, looking at birds, that sort of thing."

As it turns out," he chuckled, "ecology is a very quantitative discipline."

Now, working in the Zipkin Quantitative Ecology lab, Gilbert is the lead author on a new article in a special collection of the journal Ecology that reviews the past century of statistical ecology .

Statistical ecology, or the study of ecological systems using mathematical equations, probability and empirical data, has grown over the last century. As increasingly large datasets and complex questions took center stage in ecological research, new tools and approaches were needed to properly address them.

To better understand how statistical ecology changed over the last century, Gilbert and his fellow authors examined a selection of 36 highly cited papers on statistical ecology -- all published in Ecology since its inception in 1920.

The team's paper examines work on statistical models across a range of ecological scales from individuals to populations, communities, ecosystems and beyond. The team also reviewed publications providing practical guidance on applying models. Gilbert noted that because, "many practicing ecologists lack extensive quantitative training," such publications are key to shaping studies.

Ecology is an advantageous place for such papers, because it is one of, "the first internationally important journals in the field. It has played an outsized role in publishing important work," said lab leader Elise Zipkin, a Red Cedar Distinguished Associate Professor in the Department of Integrative Biology.

"It has a reputation of publishing some of the most influential papers on the development and application of analytical techniques from the very beginning of modern ecological research."

The team found a persistent evolution of models and concepts in the field, especially over the past few decades, driven by refinements in techniques and exponential increases in computational power.

"Statistical ecology has exploded in the last 20 to 30 years because of advances in both data availability and the continued improvement of high-performance computing clusters," Gilbert explained.

Included among the 36 reviewed papers were a landmark 1945 study by Lee R. Dice on predicting the co-occurrence of species in space -- Ecology's most highly cited paper of all time -- and an influential 2002 paper led by Darryl MacKenzie on occupancy models. Ecologists use these models to identify the range and distribution of species in an environment.

Mackenzie's work on species detection and sampling, "played an outsized role in the study of species distributions," says Zipkin. MacKenzie's paper, which was cited more than 5,400 times, spawned various software packages that are now widely used by ecologists, she explained.

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Story Source:

Materials provided by Michigan State University . Original written by Caleb Hess. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference :

• Neil A. Gilbert, Bruna R. Amaral, Olivia M. Smith, Peter J. Williams, Sydney Ceyzyk, Samuel Ayebare, Kayla L. Davis, Wendy Leuenberger, Jeffrey W. Doser, Elise F. Zipkin. A century of statistical Ecology . Ecology , 2024; DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4283

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