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With EBSCO Open Dissertations, institutions and students are offered an innovative approach to driving additional traffic to ETDs in institutional repositories. Our goal is to help make their students’ theses and dissertations as widely visible and cited as possible.
This approach extends the work started in 2014, when EBSCO and the H.W. Wilson Foundation created American Doctoral Dissertations which contained indexing from the H.W. Wilson print publication, Doctoral Dissertations Accepted by American Universities, 1933-1955. In 2015, the H.W. Wilson Foundation agreed to support the expansion of the scope of the American Doctoral Dissertations database to include records for dissertations and theses from 1955 to the present.
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Etd 2024 call for proposals extended.
In response to numerous request, the paper/poster abstract and workshop proposal submission deadline for the ETD 2024 symposium has been extended to May 17 2024. It is hoped that this will give additional potential authors enough time to submit their work.
27th International Symposium on Electronic Theses and Dissertations *Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Visibility at a Global Scale* /Join us, along with global leaders, from Wednesday, October 30th to Friday, November 1st, in Livingstone, Zambia./ The theme for ETD 2024 is “Electronic Thesis …
We are thrilled to announce that the 27th International Symposium on Electronic #Theses and #Dissertations (#ETD2024) will take place on October 30th to November 1st in Livingstone, Zambia. Hosted by The University Of Zambia (UNZA), Higher Education Authority of Zambia and Zambia Research and Education Network together with …
We are thrilled to announce that the 27th International Symposium on Electronic #Theses and #Dissertations (#ETD2024) will take place on October 30th to November 1st in Livingstone, Zambia. Hosted by The University Of Zambia (UNZA), Higher Education Authority of Zambia and Zambia Research and Education Network together with NDLTD. …
The USETDA 2024 Conference will be held September 25-27, 2024 as a hybrid event in Provo, Utah on the campus of Brigham Young University and the Provo Marriott Hotel. For details visit https://www.usetda.org/usetda-conferences/usetda-2024/. Call for proposals. Important Dates Call for proposals …
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This page provides links to databases and websites to find dissertations. This includes links to general databases to find dissertations, databases focused on the humanities, foreign dissertations, dissertations on religion, and dissertations hosted by other universities.
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ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global is the largest editorially curated repository of multi-disciplinary dissertations and theses in the world. It includes millions of full-text dissertations, the majority of which were published after 1997, but hundreds of thousands of titles published before 1997 are also available. In addition to the full-text content, citations for over 5 million dissertations and theses are included. Content comes from thousands of universities located in 100+ countries. The database increases in size by 200,000+ works each year, and is designated as the official dissertation repository by the United States Library of Congress.
E-learning modules, webinar recordings, and additional resources are available at the ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global Libguide .
Coverage : 1637- Provider : ProQuest
Dissertations and Theses
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An index of over 1.6 million electronic theses and dissertations (ETDs). To the extent possible, the index is limited to records of graduate-level theses that are freely available online.
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Cornell theses.
Check Cornell’s library catalog , which lists the dissertations available in our library collection.
The print thesis collection in Uris Library is currently shelved on Level 3B before the Q to QA regular-sized volumes. Check with the library staff for the thesis shelving locations in other libraries (Mann, Catherwood, Fine Arts, etc.).
Proquest dissertations and theses.
According to ProQuest, coverage begins with 1637. With more than 2.4 million entries, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global is the starting point for finding citations to doctoral dissertations and master’s theses. Dissertations published from 1980 forward include 350-word abstracts written by the author. Master’s theses published from 1988 forward include 150-word abstracts. UMI also offers over 1.8 million titles for purchase in microfilm or paper formats. The full text of more than 930,000 are available in PDF format for immediate free download. Use Interlibrary Loan for the titles not available as full text online.
To search for titles and verify holdings of dissertations at the Center for Research Libraries (CRL), use the CRL catalog . CRL seeks to provide comprehensive access to doctoral dissertations submitted to institutions outside the U. S. and Canada (currently more than 750,000 titles). One hundred European universities maintain exchange or deposit agreements with CRL. Russian dissertation abstracts in the social sciences are obtained on microfiche from INION. More detailed information about CRL’s dissertation holdings .
Please see our resource guide on dissertations and theses for additional resources and support.
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Wilmington University Library. (2020, July). Dissertations & Theses. https://libguides.wilmu.edu/dissertations
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A dissertation is a book-length thesis or treatise prepared as a requirement for the award of a doctoral degree (Ed.D., D.B.A., D.N.P., Ph.D.)
A thesis is book-length essay or treatise prepared as a requirement for the award of a master's degree.
Dissertations can be especially useful for locating recent research that may not yet be published in book or article format. Revised dissertations are often published later as books or scholarly articles; to find these, try searching for other works written by the same author.
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The CPI data fell 0.1% month over month ("MoM"), putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, and with it, come hopes for further monetary easing.
But what does a Fed cut actually mean? From a quantitative perspective, 0.25 bps won't be significant. However, it will do a lot to shift sentiment and expectations, which will, in fact, impact liquidity.
In the upcoming months, I'd expect to see the Fed's pivot aided by a weakening dollar and a looser monetary stance from the PBoC.
When all is said and done, I believe there's still room for the bull market to continue.
But today's leaders may become tomorrow's laggards, and vice versa, something we already saw evidence of on Thursday.
With the latest CPI print, one could argue that the battle against inflation has been won.
Inflation rate (Trading Economics)
The inflation rate in the United States is now 3%, still above target but definitely acceptable to many. The PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, stands even lower at 2.7%.
Jerome Powell gave a testimony on Capitol Hill this week, addressing his views on the economy and inflation.
We do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%
Source: Jerome Powell .
This has been the Fed's mantra for over a year now, even in the face of mounting evidence that inflation is cooling, and also the latest data showing a weakening in the US economy.
Likely, they are concerned about repeating mistakes of the past. Mistakes that can be easily summed up in one chart.
Historic inflation rate (Rusell Investments)
The 1970s were characterized by not one, but two inflationary spikes, and it's reasonable to think that this could happen again.
But if we are being data-dependent, then this is not what the data is showing.
Target rate probabilities (CMEWatch)
As it stands right now, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in September, with almost no chance priced in for a cut in July.
But how meaningful is a Federal Reserve cut?
25 bps is historically speaking a small move. It certainly wouldn't have a massive impact in terms of adding liquidity to markets, but it would help to shift sentiment.
Arguably, plenty of economic agents, such as home builders and even homebuyers, aren't waiting for lower rates, they are simply waiting for confirmation that rates won't go higher.
It's not about the rate cut, it's about what the first rate cut means. It symbolizes confirmation from the Fed that the cutting cycle is in progress, and that therefore it is okay to lever up again.
From a market perspective, this should also translate into a lower MOVE index.
MOVE Index (TV)
Lower bond volatility will definitely be conducive to improved liquidity conditions, something I recently discussed with Michael Howell.
Lowering rates would also help release liquidity from Money Market Funds, with investors eventually searching for higher yields elsewhere.
I do think conditions are in place for this bull market to continue a while longer.
Central banks around the world have begun to cut, and the Fed will soon follow suit.
On top of this, we may eventually see the Federal Reserve ease its quantitative tightening, maybe even increase its balance sheet.
This has been a prevalent policy feature over the last 20 years, much more than the exceptional measure it is often made out to be.
Fed Balance Sheet (FRED)
Even in 2023, the Fed had to once again swell up its balance sheet after launching the BTFP.
Eventually, I'd expect the Fed Balance sheet to continue to grow. The banking system will likely need it again, and it will also be necessary to continue to sustain the Federal deficit.
In terms of global liquidity, it is also key to what the PBoC will do. The Central Bank of China has been somewhat of an outlier.
China has been unable to ease as much as it would like due to its devaluing currency, but in the face of a flailing economy, speculation has now arisen that the country may even start its own form of QE.
The real key to sparking this would be a weakening US dollar ( DXY ).
This is something I have been calling for some time, and we now have a good set-up to at least test the bottom of this range in the DXY if not lower.
As we approach the November elections, I don't think many in Washington would oppose the economic boost a weaker dollar could provide.
Ultimately, if not inflation, at least monetary inflation will likely persist for the foreseeable future.
In the more immediate term, as the liquidity pours back into markets, there's money to be made in the more "speculative" and for the time underperforming areas of the market.
SPX vs IWM (TV)
It is indeed truly noteworthy the divergence we saw between the S&P 500 ( SPX ) and the Russell 2000 ( IWM ) on Thursday.
While the large-cap index fell 0.88% the small-caps rallied almost 4%.
Could the small caps finally be ready to catch up? This would certainly line up well with our macro outlook, with the Fed put, so to speak, re-emboldening investors.
Now, this is still a bit more unclear, but if the PBoC can finally start easing, this will bode very well too for Emerging Markets ( EEM )
This index sits well below its all-time highs and has just now managed to reclaim its 200-week MA.
Lastly, and from a longer-term perspective, if we accept the notion that monetary inflation will become more commonplace in the coming years, then there is perhaps no better hedge than Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ).
BTC vs Liquidity (Refinitiv)
Since its inception, Bitcoin has been a great monetary hedge in terms of tracking the ascent in global liquidity. This can be thought of as "exponential gold."
A rate cut won't be meaningful in any quantitative way, but it will reignite the expectations of the economy, and be the first step in moving towards further monetary easing.
More immediately, we may see this cycle upended by a recession, but from a long-term perspective, monetary inflation has become a necessity. The Federal government needs it, banks need it, and plenty of companies need it, too.
Certain stocks will provide a good hedge against this phenomenon, as well as monetary hedges like gold and Bitcoin.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
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What is an ai database the future of data-driven decisions.
Ashok Reddy is CEO of KX , the creator of kdb+, a time series database and real-time analytics engine.
Picture this: The year is 2030, and you’re living in a world where retailers can predict consumer behavior with uncanny accuracy, healthcare providers are diagnosing diseases before symptoms escalate and financial institutions can detect fraud in time. You may think this is the opening scene of the next greatest science-fiction movie, but it’s not—it’s the power of artificial intelligence (AI) databases at work!
As artificial intelligence continues to advance, its integration into various sectors has sparked significant debate. Many worry that AI is poised to replace human jobs , leading to widespread unemployment and economic disruption, but some business leaders argue that this technology is creating more jobs than it has displaced. New roles have emerged, such as deep learning engineers, AI chatbot developers, Chief AI Officers (CAIO) and even “AI ethicists,” whose job is to maintain a responsible AI framework.
Despite these differing perspectives, one fact remains clear: AI databases were designed to enhance human capabilities, not replace them. While these systems aim to replicate human thinking, they can’t replace humans entirely because they’re incapable of providing causal context—the "why" behind their conclusions. Instead, AI databases enhance or supplement human capabilities and decision making processes, democratizing access to information and empowering individuals at all levels to make informed choices.
At its core, an AI database is a powerful fusion of AI technologies within a traditional database system designed to provide value-added services. These databases are specifically targeted at optimizing computing and database resources, allowing for the simultaneous ingestion, exploration, analysis and visualization of fast-moving, complex data in milliseconds. This enables them to perform tasks that traditionally require significant human effort and time, such as pattern recognition and predictive analytics. By automating data analysis and providing actionable insights, AI databases free up human resources to focus on higher-order thinking and strategic planning. This not only enhances efficiency but also drives innovation, as employees can dedicate more time to developing creative solutions and exploring new opportunities.
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Despite these compelling benefits, some individuals and organizations have voiced hesitancy to fully embrace AI databases, given that the technology is still in relatively uncharted territory. One major concern among prospective users is data privacy and security. The vast amounts of data processed by these databases raise significant concerns about how this information is protected and whether the database complies with regulatory requirements. Additionally, ethical considerations are paramount; ensuring that AI databases operate without biases and that decision making processes are transparent and fair is crucial. Continuous monitoring, regular updates and retraining models to ensure they remain accurate and up to date can help address these concerns, ensuring the system remains accountable.
AI databases are augmenting the work of data scientists and developers by democratizing the decision making process and empowering individuals across all departments and seniority with the necessary context to make informed decisions. Armed with these abilities, they’re able to better support their organization's broader goals faster and with more confidence, ultimately contributing to a more agile and informed decision making environment.
Additionally, AI databases can lower the cost of cognition, reducing the mental effort required to process information and make decisions. This reduction in cognitive load enables employees to focus on higher-order thinking, such as strategic planning and creative problem-solving. As a result, organizations can respond more swiftly to market changes, identify new opportunities and stay ahead of the competition.
A practical example of AI databases enhancing decision making is their ability to predict trends across various industries.
• In finance , AI-powered databases analyze market data and consumer behavior to forecast investment opportunities, allowing financial institutions to manage risks and optimize strategies.
• In healthcare , they can predict disease outbreaks and treatment outcomes, enabling better resource allocation and patient care.
• In retail , AI databases forecast demand and optimize inventory management, reducing waste and improving profitability.
Organizations can make proactive decisions and drive company growth by leveraging these predictive capabilities.
Organizations should adopt strategic approaches tailored to their specific needs and goals to fully harness the power of AI databases. Here are key strategies to consider.
• Identify Applications Requiring Faster Data Processing: Evaluate and prioritize applications that benefit most from rapid data ingestion and processing. This could include alerting to nefarious behaviors indicative of fraud or pricing and claims forecasting.
• Align AI Databases with Organizational AI Goals: Ensure that the deployment of AI databases aligns with your organization’s broader AI strategy. This involves integrating AI databases into existing workflows and systems to support machine learning and deep learning initiatives effectively.
• Build Efficient Model Pipeline Platforms: Develop robust model pipeline platforms to streamline the creation, training and deployment of machine learning models. These platforms should facilitate the seamless integration of data from AI databases, enabling data scientists and analysts to build and iterate models quickly.
• Address Data Governance And Management Challenges Early On: Proactively tackle data governance and management issues to avoid potential pitfalls. Establish clear policies for data privacy, security and compliance with regulatory requirements. Implement processes for data quality assurance and ethical AI practices to ensure the integrity and fairness of AI-driven decisions.
By implementing these strategies, organizations can maximize the benefits of their AI databases, driving efficiency, innovation and competitive advantage across their operations.
As we move into an increasingly data-driven future, the role of AI databases will only continue to grow in importance. From predicting consumer behavior to revolutionizing healthcare and financial markets, these tools are reshaping industries and empowering decision-makers at every level. Yet, as with any innovation, success lies in adoption and strategic implementation.
Just as the scenario painted in the opening scene of this article hinted at a world of endless possibilities, the potential of AI databases offers a future where data-driven insights propel us into unimaginable territories of discovery and success.
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Provides online access to over 3.8 million dissertations and master's theses with 1.7 million available in full text for immediate downloading. Citations are available for dissertations dating from 1861 and full text online from 1997 for over 1,000 schools submitting to the ProQuest UMI database.
Ever since Microsoft introduced SQL Server Stretch Database in 2016, our guiding principles for such hybrid data storage solutions have always been affordability, security, and native Azure integration. Customers have indicated that they want to reduce maintenance and storage costs for on-premises data, with options to scale up or down as needed, greater peace of mind from advanced security features such as Always Encrypted and row-level security, and they seek to unlock value from warm and cold data stretched to the cloud using Microsoft Azure analytics services .
During recent years, Azure has undergone significant evolution, marked by groundbreaking innovations like Microsoft Fabric and Azure Data Lake Storage. As we continue this journey, it remains imperative to keep evolving our approach on hybrid data storage, ensuring optimal empowerment for our SQL Server customers in leveraging the best from Azure.
On November 16, 2022, the SQL Server Stretch Database feature was deprecated from SQL Server 2022 . For in-market versions of SQL Server 2019 and 2017, we had added an improvement that allowed the Stretch Database feature to stretch a table to an Azure SQL Database. Effective July 9, 2024, the supporting Azure service, known as SQL Server Stretch Database edition, is retired. Impacted versions of SQL Server include SQL Server 2022, 2019, 2017, and 2016.
In July 2024, SQL Server Stretch Database will be discontinued for SQL Server 2022, 2019, 2017, and 2016. We understand that retiring an Azure service may impact your current workload and use of Stretch Database. Therefore, we kindly request that you either migrate to Azure or bring their data back from Azure to your on-premises version of SQL Server. Additionally, if you’re exploring alternatives for archiving data to cold and warm storage in the cloud, we’ve introduced significant new capabilities in SQL Server 2022 , leveraging its data virtualization suite.
SQL Server 2022 supports a concept named CREATE EXTERNAL TABLE AS SELECT (CETaS). It can help customers archive and store cold data to Azure Storage. The data will be stored in an open source file format named Parquet . It operates well with complex data in large volumes. With its performant data compression, it turns out to be one of the most cost-effective data storage solutions. Using OneLake shortcuts, customers then can leverage Microsoft Fabric to realize cloud-scale analytics on archived data.
Our priority is to empower our SQL Server customers with the tools and services that leverage the latest and greatest from Azure. If you need assistance in exploring how Microsoft can best empower your hybrid data archiving needs, please contact us .
What’s cetas .
Creates an external table and then exports, in parallel, the results of a Transact-SQL SELECT statement.
Fabric is an end-to-end analytics and data platform designed for enterprises that require a unified solution. It encompasses data movement, processing, ingestion, transformation, real-time event routing, and report building. Fabric offers a comprehensive suite of services including Data engineering, Data Factory, Data Science, Real-Time Analytics, Data Warehouse, and Databases.
With Fabric, you don’t need to assemble different services from multiple vendors. Instead, it offers a seamlessly integrated, user-friendly platform that simplifies your analytics requirements. Operating on a software as a service (SaaS) model, Fabric brings simplicity and integration to your solutions.
Fabric integrates separate components into a cohesive stack. Instead of relying on different databases or data warehouses, you can centralize data storage with Microsoft OneLake . AI capabilities are seamlessly embedded within Fabric, eliminating the need for manual integration. With Fabric, you can easily transition your raw data into actionable insights for business users.
Shortcuts in OneLake allow you to unify your data across domains, clouds, and accounts by creating a single virtual data lake for your entire enterprise. All Fabric experiences and analytical engines can directly connect to your existing data sources such as Azure, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and OneLake through a unified namespace. OneLake manages all permissions and credentials, so you don’t need to separately configure each Fabric workload to connect to each data source. Additionally, you can use shortcuts to eliminate edge copies of data and reduce process latency associated with data copies and staging.
Shortcuts are objects in OneLake that point to other storage locations. The location can be internal or external to OneLake. The location that a shortcut points to is known as the target path of the shortcut. The location where the shortcut appears is known as the shortcut path. Shortcuts appear as folders in OneLake and any workload or service that has access to OneLake can use them. Shortcuts behave like symbolic links. They’re an independent object from the target. If you delete a shortcut, the target remains unaffected. If you move, rename, or delete a target path, the shortcut can break.
Bring your data into the era of AI
Why migrate windows server and sql server to azure: roi, innovation, and free offers , provision premium ssd v2 storage for microsoft sql server on azure virtual machines in the microsoft azure portal , update on the support of dbcc clonedatabase for production use .
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A new tool makes it easier for database users to perform complicated statistical analyses of tabular data without the need to know what is going on behind the scenes.
GenSQL, a generative AI system for databases, could help users make predictions, detect anomalies, guess missing values, fix errors, or generate synthetic data with just a few keystrokes.
For instance, if the system were used to analyze medical data from a patient who has always had high blood pressure, it could catch a blood pressure reading that is low for that particular patient but would otherwise be in the normal range.
GenSQL automatically integrates a tabular dataset and a generative probabilistic AI model, which can account for uncertainty and adjust their decision-making based on new data.
Moreover, GenSQL can be used to produce and analyze synthetic data that mimic the real data in a database. This could be especially useful in situations where sensitive data cannot be shared, such as patient health records, or when real data are sparse.
This new tool is built on top of SQL, a programming language for database creation and manipulation that was introduced in the late 1970s and is used by millions of developers worldwide.
“Historically, SQL taught the business world what a computer could do. They didn’t have to write custom programs, they just had to ask questions of a database in high-level language. We think that, when we move from just querying data to asking questions of models and data, we are going to need an analogous language that teaches people the coherent questions you can ask a computer that has a probabilistic model of the data,” says Vikash Mansinghka ’05, MEng ’09, PhD ’09, senior author of a paper introducing GenSQL and a principal research scientist and leader of the Probabilistic Computing Project in the MIT Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences.
When the researchers compared GenSQL to popular, AI-based approaches for data analysis, they found that it was not only faster but also produced more accurate results. Importantly, the probabilistic models used by GenSQL are explainable, so users can read and edit them.
“Looking at the data and trying to find some meaningful patterns by just using some simple statistical rules might miss important interactions. You really want to capture the correlations and the dependencies of the variables, which can be quite complicated, in a model. With GenSQL, we want to enable a large set of users to query their data and their model without having to know all the details,” adds lead author Mathieu Huot, a research scientist in the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences and member of the Probabilistic Computing Project.
They are joined on the paper by Matin Ghavami and Alexander Lew, MIT graduate students; Cameron Freer, a research scientist; Ulrich Schaechtle and Zane Shelby of Digital Garage; Martin Rinard, an MIT professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science and member of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); and Feras Saad ’15, MEng ’16, PhD ’22, an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University. The research was recently presented at the ACM Conference on Programming Language Design and Implementation.
Combining models and databases
SQL, which stands for structured query language, is a programming language for storing and manipulating information in a database. In SQL, people can ask questions about data using keywords, such as by summing, filtering, or grouping database records.
However, querying a model can provide deeper insights, since models can capture what data imply for an individual. For instance, a female developer who wonders if she is underpaid is likely more interested in what salary data mean for her individually than in trends from database records.
The researchers noticed that SQL didn’t provide an effective way to incorporate probabilistic AI models, but at the same time, approaches that use probabilistic models to make inferences didn’t support complex database queries.
They built GenSQL to fill this gap, enabling someone to query both a dataset and a probabilistic model using a straightforward yet powerful formal programming language.
A GenSQL user uploads their data and probabilistic model, which the system automatically integrates. Then, she can run queries on data that also get input from the probabilistic model running behind the scenes. This not only enables more complex queries but can also provide more accurate answers.
For instance, a query in GenSQL might be something like, “How likely is it that a developer from Seattle knows the programming language Rust?” Just looking at a correlation between columns in a database might miss subtle dependencies. Incorporating a probabilistic model can capture more complex interactions.
Plus, the probabilistic models GenSQL utilizes are auditable, so people can see which data the model uses for decision-making. In addition, these models provide measures of calibrated uncertainty along with each answer.
For instance, with this calibrated uncertainty, if one queries the model for predicted outcomes of different cancer treatments for a patient from a minority group that is underrepresented in the dataset, GenSQL would tell the user that it is uncertain, and how uncertain it is, rather than overconfidently advocating for the wrong treatment.
Faster and more accurate results
To evaluate GenSQL, the researchers compared their system to popular baseline methods that use neural networks. GenSQL was between 1.7 and 6.8 times faster than these approaches, executing most queries in a few milliseconds while providing more accurate results.
They also applied GenSQL in two case studies: one in which the system identified mislabeled clinical trial data and the other in which it generated accurate synthetic data that captured complex relationships in genomics.
Next, the researchers want to apply GenSQL more broadly to conduct largescale modeling of human populations. With GenSQL, they can generate synthetic data to draw inferences about things like health and salary while controlling what information is used in the analysis.
They also want to make GenSQL easier to use and more powerful by adding new optimizations and automation to the system. In the long run, the researchers want to enable users to make natural language queries in GenSQL. Their goal is to eventually develop a ChatGPT-like AI expert one could talk to about any database, which grounds its answers using GenSQL queries.
This research is funded, in part, by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Google, and the Siegel Family Foundation.
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Benchmark crude oil prices bounced back from six-month lows over the course of June after OPEC+ officials stated that unwinding voluntary production cuts would depend on market conditions – and as geopolitical risks remained high. ICE Brent futures rose by $5/bbl to $86/bbl by end-month.
Oil prices increased in June despite mounting concerns over the health of the Chinese economy and slowing oil demand growth. Global observed inventories were up in May for the fourth month in a row, reaching their highest level since August 2021. Offshore inventories moved ashore at a brisk pace, with oil on water down sharply, while on land stocks rose to a 30-month high ahead of the seasonal uptick in refinery activity. OECD industry stocks built for a second consecutive month after having declined for the previous six months. Preliminary data suggest global oil stocks fell 18.1 mb in June, led by a 1 mb/d draw in crude.
World oil demand growth slowed to only 710 kb/d in 2Q24, its lowest quarterly increase in over a year. Oil consumption in China, long the engine of global oil demand growth, contracted in both April and May, and is now assessed marginally below year earlier levels in 2Q24. That stands in stark contrast to annual gains of 1.5 mb/d in 2023 and 740 kb/d in 1Q24. Demand for industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstocks was particularly weak. By contrast, second-quarter delivery data of gasoil and naphtha for OECD economies came in higher than expected, potentially signalling a budding recovery in Europe’s ailing manufacturing sector. While the bounce temporarily pushed quarterly OECD demand growth back into positive territory, non-OECD countries will account for all this year’s global gains. World oil demand growth expectations for the 2024 and 2025 are largely unchanged at 970 kb/d and 980 kb/d, respectively.
At the same time, global oil supply trended higher, with 2Q24 production up 910 kb/d from 1Q24, led by the United States. Output is forecast to rise by another 770 kb/d in 3Q24 with non-OPEC+ providing 600 kb/d of the gains. For 2024 as a whole, global oil supply growth is forecast to average 770 kb/d, which will boost oil supply to a record 103 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ output is expected to rise by 1.5 mb/d, while OPEC+ production will fall by 740 kb/d year-on-year if existing voluntary cuts are maintained. Global supply growth in 2025 is projected at a much stronger 1.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+, mainly in the United States, Canada, Guyana and Brazil, leading gains for a third consecutive year, adding 1.5 mb/d.
In early June, OPEC+ laid out a roadmap for unwinding extra voluntary supply reductions of up to 2.2 mb/d from 4Q24 through 3Q25. Given the bloc’s assurances that the production increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, we will adjust our OPEC+ supply numbers when such a decision is confirmed. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is meanwhile due to meet on 1 August to review global oil market conditions and production levels. Our current non-OPEC+ supply and global demand forecasts show the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.2 mb/d in 3Q24 and 41.8 mb/d in 4Q24 – roughly 800 kb/d and 400 kb/d above its June output, respectively. For next year, the call on OPEC+ crude tumbles to 41.1 mb/d as demand growth continues to slow and non-OPEC+ output continues to expand. After the hot summer, cooler trends are set to prevail.
OPEC+ crude oil production 1 million barrels per day
Algeria | 0.9 | 0.91 | 0.0 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 0.08 |
Congo | 0.26 | 0.26 | -0.02 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.01 |
Equatorial Guinea | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
Gabon | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.0 |
Iraq | 4.3 | 4.26 | 0.26 | 4.0 | 4.87 | 0.61 |
Kuwait | 2.49 | 2.48 | 0.07 | 2.41 | 2.88 | 0.4 |
Nigeria | 1.28 | 1.32 | -0.18 | 1.5 | 1.42 | 0.1 |
Saudi Arabia | 9.03 | 8.85 | -0.13 | 8.98 | 12.11 | 3.26 |
UAE | 3.25 | 3.28 | 0.37 | 2.91 | 4.28 | 1.0 |
Iran | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.8 | |||
Libya | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 0.04 | ||
Venezuela | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.87 | -0.02 | ||
Azerbaijan | 0.46 | 0.49 | -0.06 | 0.55 | 0.49 | -0.0 |
Kazakhstan | 1.49 | 1.57 | 0.11 | 1.47 | 1.62 | 0.05 |
Mexico | 1.56 | 1.58 | 1.6 | 0.02 | ||
Oman | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.0 | 0.76 | 0.85 | 0.09 |
Russia | 9.24 | 9.22 | 0.24 | 8.98 | 9.76 | |
Others | 0.74 | 0.75 | -0.12 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.1 |
1. Includes extra voluntary curbs where announced. 2. Capacity levels can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period. 3. Excludes shut in Iranian, Russian crude. 4. Angola left OPEC effective 1 Jan 2024. 5. Iran, Libya, Venezuela exempt from cuts. 6. Mexico excluded from OPEC+ compliance. 7. Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan.
Definitions of key terms used in the OMR.
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IEA (2024), Oil Market Report - July 2024 , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2024
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