2019/20 survey of the Ethiopian tax system

Published on 16 April 2021

In this report, we provide a detailed overview of Ethiopia’s current tax system and the evolution of tax revenue collections over the last 10 years. The report also highlights important changes to the structure of the tax system which have occurred over the past few years, and the associated tax revenue implications.

  • Government finances and spending
  • International development
  • Low and middle income countries

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Over the last 15 years, the Ethiopian economy has registered growth of around 10.2% per year in real terms, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. The country’s real GDP per capita also expanded by around 7.4% per year on average. This has contributed to an increase in the country’s GDP per capita from US$215 in 2004 to US$602 in 2019 (measured in 2010 prices). Similarly, the poverty headcount ratio declined from 39% in 2004 to 19% in 2020.

During this time, the economy has transitioned from being agriculture-led to being service-led. In 2004/05, agriculture contributed more than 52% to the country’s GDP while the service and industrial sectors made up around 35% and 13% respectively. Since then, the GDP shares of the service and industrial sectors have grown relative to agriculture and in 2015/16 the service sector overtook agriculture to be the largest contributor to GDP, although agriculture still remains the country’s largest employer with around two-thirds of employment being in agriculture (World Bank, 2019).

However, a number of key economic challenges remain. For example, external public debt has increased as a proportion of national income, despite rapid GDP growth, and in 2018/19 stood at around 28.2% of GDP; the balance of payments has deteriorated; and foreign exchange shortages continue to adversely impact the economy. Recognising the need to correct these macroeconomic imbalances, ease structural bottlenecks and create new growth opportunities, the new government introduced a three-year ‘Homegrown Economic Reform’ in 2019 that aims to address these issues by implementing a new set of comprehensive reforms.

In June 2020, the government also unveiled a new 10-year development plan under the theme of ‘Ethiopia: An African Beacon of Prosperity’ for the years 2020/21 to 2030/31 as a successor to the Growth and Transformation Plan (which ended in 2019/20). The new Plan aims to sustain the country’s GDP growth and address the main challenges the country faced under previous development plans. It has outlined six strategic pillars that will underpin Ethiopia’s economic development objectives over the next decade:

  • ensuring quality economic growth;
  • improving productivity and competitiveness;
  • ensuring institutional reforms;
  • making the private sector the driving force of the economy;
  • ensuring the equitable participation of women and children;
  • building a climate-resilient and green economy.

This ‘Perspective Plan’ aims to achieve annual GDP growth of 10% or more over the course of the next decade. The industrial sector is expected to be the main driver of economic growth in this period, with a target of 13% growth per year underpinned by a large expansion of the manufacturing sector. It is hoped that this rapid economic growth will bring significant improvements in living standards, with the aim of per-capita income reaching US$2,220 by 2030 – taking the country into middle-income status. The Plan also aims to reduce the poverty rate from 19% in 2020 to 7% by 2030.

However, in order to achieve these goals, Ethiopia will require sustained improvements in domestic resource mobilisation. Tax revenues will need to rise in order to fund spending plans and reduce the country’s reliance on debt and international donor support. A review of the tax system provides a useful starting point for considering how such improvements could be achieved.

The report is structured as follows. Section 2 discusses the composition of tax revenue in Ethiopia, while Section 3 provides a detailed description of the structure of Ethiopia’s tax system. Section 4 discusses recent tax policy reforms and the direction of reform in Ethiopia. Section 5 compares tax collections in Ethiopia with those in other sub-Saharan African (SSA) and low- and middle-income countries. We conclude the report in Section 6 by considering the implications of these findings for tax policy strategy and the potential next steps for tax reform.

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Country Adviser (Ethiopia)

Edris joined IFS in Dec 2019 as Ethiopia Country Adviser for the Centre for Tax Analysis in Developing Countries (TAXDEV).

Report details

Suggested citation.

Harris, T and Seid, E. (2021). 2019/20 survey of the Ethiopian tax system . London: The IFS. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/201920-survey-ethiopian-tax-system (accessed: 21 May 2024).

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A survey of the Ethiopian tax system

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In this report, we provide a detailed overview of Ethiopia’s current tax system and the evolution of tax revenue collections over the last 10 years. The report also highlights important changes to the structure of the tax system which have occurred over the past few years, and the associated tax revenue implications.

Over the last 15 years, the Ethiopian economy has registered growth of around 10.2% per year in real terms, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. The country’s real GDP per capita also expanded by around 7.4% per year on average. This has contributed to an increase in the country’s GDP per capita from US$215 in 2004 to US$602 in 2019 (measured in 2010 prices). Similarly, the poverty headcount ratio declined from 39% in 2004 to 19% in 2020.

During this time, the economy has transitioned from being agriculture-led to being service-led. In 2004/05, agriculture contributed more than 52% to the country’s GDP while the service and industrial sectors made up around 35% and 13% respectively. Since then, the GDP shares of the service and industrial sectors have grown relative to agriculture and in 2015/16 the service sector overtook agriculture to be the largest contributor to GDP, although agriculture still remains the country’s largest employer with around two-thirds of employment being in agriculture (World Bank, 2019).

However, a number of key economic challenges remain. For example, external public debt has increased as a proportion of national income, despite rapid GDP growth, and in 2018/19 stood at around 28.2% of GDP; the balance of payments has deteriorated; and foreign exchange shortages continue to adversely impact the economy. Recognising the need to correct these macroeconomic imbalances, ease structural bottlenecks and create new growth opportunities, the new government introduced a three-year ‘Homegrown Economic Reform’ in 2019 that aims to address these issues by implementing a new set of comprehensive reforms.

In June 2020, the government also unveiled a new 10-year development plan under the theme of ‘Ethiopia: An African Beacon of Prosperity’ for the years 2020/21 to 2030/31 as a successor to the Growth and Transformation Plan (which ended in 2019/20). The new Plan aims to sustain the country’s GDP growth and address the main challenges the country faced under previous development plans. It has outlined six strategic pillars that will underpin Ethiopia’s economic development objectives over the next decade:

  • ensuring quality economic growth;
  • improving productivity and competitiveness;
  • ensuring institutional reforms;
  • making the private sector the driving force of the economy;
  • ensuring the equitable participation of women and children;
  • building a climate-resilient and green economy.

This ‘Perspective Plan’ aims to achieve annual GDP growth of 10% or more over the course of the next decade. The industrial sector is expected to be the main driver of economic growth in this period, with a target of 13% growth per year underpinned by a large expansion of the manufacturing sector. It is hoped that this rapid economic growth will bring significant improvements in living standards, with the aim of per-capita income reaching US$2,220 by 2030 – taking the country into middle-income status. The Plan also aims to reduce the poverty rate from 19% in 2020 to 7% by 2030.

However, in order to achieve these goals, Ethiopia will require sustained improvements in domestic resource mobilisation. Tax revenues will need to rise in order to fund spending plans and reduce the country’s reliance on debt and international donor support. A review of the tax system provides a useful starting point for considering how such improvements could be achieved.

The report is structured as follows. Section 2 discusses the composition of tax revenue in Ethiopia, while Section 3 provides a detailed description of the structure of Ethiopia’s tax system. Section 4 discusses recent tax policy reforms and the direction of reform in Ethiopia. Section 5 compares tax collections in Ethiopia with those in other sub-Saharan African (SSA) and low- and middle-income countries. We conclude the report in Section 6 by considering the implications of these findings for tax policy strategy and the potential next steps for tax reform.

Published on: 16th April 2021

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Performance and prospects of tax collection in ethiopia.

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This paper explores some of the challenges to explain why tax to GDP ratio is low at 13.4 per cent despite strong and sustained growth recorded in the past twelve years, through analysis of the determinants. Also, the gap between the potential and actual tax revenue in Ethiopia will be estimated using peer country comparisons.

The paper deploys both descriptive and empirical analysis. While the descriptive segment attempts to dwell on trend analysis in DRM and tax performance, the empirical model attempts to identify key determinants of the ratio.

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Factors Affecting Presumptive Tax Collection in Ethiopia: Evidence from Category "C" Taxpayers in Bahir Dar City

The Ethiopian government has set itself long-term goals of eradicating poverty, ensuring sustainable economic growth, and becoming a middle-income country by 2025. These goals are impossible to achieve without tackling tax challenges, improving the tax administration, and generating sufficient revenue. This paper attempts to reveal major factors that influence presumptive tax collection in Ethiopia. To achieve this objective, the researcher used a cross-sectional survey design. As a result, the quantitative research approach was employed. A total of 391 self-administered, closed-ended questionnaires were distributed to category “C” taxpayers found in Bahir Dar City Administration. Given the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable (presumptive tax collection), the study employed a binary logistic regression model. As part of the process, the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) Version 20 was used. The descriptive statistics reveal that the following issues were major challenges for presumptive tax collection in Ethiopia: lack of equity and fairness in presumptive tax assessment; complexity of tax rules; taxpayers’ poor perceptions of tax evasion; the existence of unethical and corrupt tax officials; taxpayers’ negative attitudes toward the government; and poor social norms between taxpayers and the Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority (ERCA). The binary logistic regression results show the following to be significantly associated with presumptive income tax collection in Ethiopia: the equity and fairness of the tax system; corrupt behavior of tax officials; the organizational strength of the tax authority; the participatory tax system; taxpayers’ knowledge of tax rules and regulations; and the attitudes of taxpayers toward the government. However, social norms, mode of tax payment, and perception of tax evasion had positive but insignificant relationships with presumptive tax collection. The findings of this paper will help policymakers and other stakeholders to identify determinants of presumptive tax collection, and thereby to design and implement appropriate presumptive tax systems for small and medium-sized businesses in Ethiopia. In addition, this paper contributes to the tax literature on determinants of presumptive tax collection issues in developing countries.

Keywords: Binary Logistic Regression, Category “C” Taxpayers, Ethiopia, Presumptive Tax, Tax collection.

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Challenges of Tax Revenue Collection in Ethiopia:Case of Ethiopia Customs Commission

Taxes are involuntary fees levied on individuals or corporations and enforced by government entity in order to finance government activities (Lea D.Uradu, 2020). Lea D.Uradu in addition stated, government usually collects taxes to help fund public works, services and to build and maintain the infrastructures used in a country and used for the betterment of the economy and all living in it. Similarly, (UNDP Ethiopia, 2016:p2) stated that, a good tax system follows the principles of efficiency, fairness and easy to administer. Keeping the benefits of tax, the government of Ethiopia collects tax revenue from Domestic tax and Customs duty tax sources. However, the researcher understood that, There are plenty of challenges in tax collection process that do not seen by previous studies and many tax studies are not clearly identified/stated which tax source have great share in tax revenue collection in Ethiopia,(i.e., many people are confusing that which source of tax have great share in Ethiopia tax system). Thus, the objective of the article was to look which tax revenue has great share/contribution to the economy (i.e., Domestic tax or Customs duty tax?) and the challenges to perform tax in Ethiopia. To achieve the objective, a quantitative data of six(6) years tax revenue collected by Ethiopia’s ministry of revenues were taken for research question one and a multiple regression model were formulated. Regarding to second question, 31 field questionnaires was collected from randomly selected tax officials. And for the collected data, both descriptive and inferential statistics ( regression analysis & nonparametric test) analysis method was applied .In conclusion, the author found that domestic tax revenue have great share to Ethiopian Economy than tax from customs duty(but not to undermine its share). And the tax collection challenges are identified as unstructured economy, poor tax paying habit and maladministration of officials respectively.  Thus, the author recommended that the government of Ethiopia as well as the tax collecting Authority should concentrate on effective domestic tax collection, organize the economy to suit tax collection, create tax knowhow on the society and avoid tax maladministration.

Keywords : revenue collection, tax, Government.

DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-1-02

Publication date: January 31 st 2021

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The study was attempted to assess problems associated with taxpayers and the revenue authority of Ethiopia case of Jimma Zone, Oromiya regional state. To address research objectives, the researchers were used survey data collected through questionnaires, and the collected data were analyzed with the aid of statistical software, ordered logistic regression model. The study used tax collection as dependent variable, and those taxpayers delay declaration, tax fairness and equity, corruption and political instability, organizational strength of the tax authority, tax payer’s awareness, mode of tax collection, and starting a business without a license as independent variables. The findings of the study revealed that independent variables corruption, political instability, organizational strength of the tax authority, tax fairness, and modes of tax collection has a significant relationship with tax collection. It indicates that these variables have an impact on the collection of taxes. O...

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ULUSÖTESİ SERMAYE VE İŞÇİ HAKLARI

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  • Exponential growth rate: the growth rate, r, between two points in time calculated from the equation r = ln(pn/p0)/n, where pn and p0 are the last and first observations in the period, n is the number of years in the period range, and ln is the natural logarithm operator. This growth rate is based on a model of continuous, exponential growth between two points in time. It does not take into account the intermediate values of the series.
  • Least-squares growth rate: the growth rate estimated by fitting a linear regression trend line to the logarithmic annual values of the variable in the relevant period. No growth rate is calculated if more than half the observations in a period are missing. The calculated growth rate is an average rate that is representative of the available observations over the entire period. It does not necessarily match the actual growth rate between any two periods.
  • Geometric growth rate: the growth rate over n periods calculated as r = exp[ln(pn/p0)/n] - 1. It is applicable to compound growth over discrete periods. Like the exponential growth rate, it does not take into account intermediate values of the series.
  • Average (or mean): the sum of values in the period divided by the number of values. Observations that are not available are ignored, however zero values are included.
  • Median: the middle value in the period.
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  • Minimum: the lowest value in the period.
  • Standard deviation: the square root of the variance. Standard deviation is a measure of how widely values are dispersed from the average value (the mean).
  • Sum: the sum of the values in the period.
  • Variance: the mean of all squared deviations from the mean.
  • Most recent value: The most recent value (MRV) function will display a value in the specified year range according to the selected order (observation sequence). The default order is "First" which will display the most recent value available in the period. Selecting a different order, such as "Second" for example, will display the second-most recent value in the period, etc. MRV options are also available to display the year of the data, either to the left or right of the data value.

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COMMENTS

  1. (PDF) Tax Revenue Collection in Ethiopia: Does ...

    It was shown from the study that high tax collection is linked with a high level of infrastructure. Desta (2022) assessed the association between tax revenue and institutional quality in Ethiopia ...

  2. PDF IFS Report R187 Edris Seid

    Section 2 discusses the composition of tax revenue in Ethiopia, while Section 3 provides a detailed description of the structure of Ethiopia's tax system. Section 4 discusses recent tax policy reforms and the direction of reform in Ethiopia. Section 5 compares tax collections in Ethiopia with those in other sub-Saharan

  3. 2019/20 survey of the Ethiopian tax system

    Downloads. R187-2019-20-Survey-of-the-Ethiopian-tax-system.pdf . PDF | 856.25 KB. Over the last 15 years, the Ethiopian economy has registered growth of around 10.2% per year in real terms, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. The country's real GDP per capita also expanded by around 7.4% per year on average.

  4. Performance and Prospects of Tax Collection in EThiopia

    This includes tax collection, non- tax revenues, domestic borrowing, and from other domestic income sources but it doesn't necessarily have to mean introducing new taxes or increasing the tax rates. For developing countries DRM is the only dependable and long term source of development financing in terms of sustainability and reliability. It ...

  5. Addis Ababa University College of Busisness and Economics Department of

    I, Minyichel Baye, have carried out a research work on the factors affecting tax collection in Ethiopia independently in partial fulfillment of the requirement of the Masters of Science (MSC) Degree in Accounting and Finance with the guidance and support of the research advisor, Dr. Degefe Duressa.

  6. Tax compliance behavior of taxpayers in Ethiopia: A review paper

    Numerous research on tax compliance in Ethiopia has been conducted. ... The government should maintain transparency and accountability in tax collection and establish a robust tax audit system regularly. This makes it possible to collect as much as the necessary income to collect. Moreover, one of the difficulties in complying with tax laws is ...

  7. A survey of the Ethiopian tax system

    Over the last 15 years, the Ethiopian economy has registered growth of around 10.2% per year in real terms, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. The country's real GDP per capita also expanded by around 7.4% per year on average. This has contributed to an increase in the country's GDP per capita from US$215 in 2004 to ...

  8. PDF Working Paper

    Performance and Prospects of Tax Collection in Ethiopia Acknowledgements: This paper was co-authored by Haile Kibret, National Economist and Roza Mamuye Programme Associ- ... in line with conventional wisdom, the research found out significant and positive correlation between quality of institutions and revenue mobilization. The finding was ...

  9. Performance and prospects of tax collection in Ethiopia

    Performance and prospects of tax collection in Ethiopia. This paper explores some of the challenges to explain why tax to GDP ratio is low at 13.4 per cent despite strong and sustained growth recorded in the past twelve years, through analysis of the determinants. Also, the gap between the potential and actual tax revenue in Ethiopia will be ...

  10. Performance and Prospects of Tax Collection in Ethiopia

    Challenges of Tax Revenue Collection in Ethiopia:Case of Ethiopia Customs Commission. A. Berhe Ethiopia. Taxes are involuntary fees levied on individuals or corporations and enforced by government entity in order to finance government activities (Lea D.Uradu, 2020). Lea D.Uradu in addition stated,….

  11. Factors Affecting Presumptive Tax Collection in Ethiopia: Evidence From

    be significantly associated with presumptive income tax collection in Ethiopia: the equity and fairness of the tax system; corrupt behavior of tax officials; the organizational strength of the ... However, this category is the most problematic one in terms of levying and collecting taxes in Ethiopia. Research conducted by Gezahegn, Desta and ...

  12. Factors Affecting Presumptive Tax Collection in Ethiopia: Evidence from

    The binary logistic regression results show the following to be significantly associated with presumptive income tax collection in Ethiopia: the equity and fairness of the tax system; corrupt behavior of tax officials; the organizational strength of the tax authority; the participatory tax system; taxpayers' knowledge of tax rules and ...

  13. (PDF) Determinants of Tax Revenue Performance: Ethiopian Federal

    The analysis showed that the reform of the tax policy since the 2009 fiscal year has not had a positive impact on tax revenue. The tax authority's eight-year tax collection efficiency was assessed by the tax buoyancy, which was 0.76 percent between 2005 and 2012, the tax buoyancy rate was 0.9 before the tax policy reform, and 0.6 after the reform.

  14. PDF School of Graduate Studies Factor Affecting Tax Revenue in Ethiopa

    3.1. Research Design ... tion rate, and export have significant impact on tax collection, Unemployment rate and govern-ment expenditure are insignificant variables affecting tax revenue. The study also provides rec- ... The average 2010/11 to 2015/16 Ethiopian Tax Revenue Ratio to GDP is about 12.08. Although

  15. PDF Determinants of Tax Revenue in Ethiopia

    case of Ethiopia. In this study quantitative research method using time series data set that consists ... recommendation and policy implication that will help Ethiopian government to enhance its tax collection performance. Key words: tax revenue, determinants of tax ... indicates that Ethiopia's tax revenue to GDP ratio was only around 23.5% ...

  16. Challenges of Tax Revenue Collection in Ethiopia:Case of Ethiopia

    Keywords: revenue collection, tax, Government. DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-1-02. Publication date: January 31st 2021. 1. Introduction. Taxation in Ethiopia was an old history. Peasants provide a gift called like "yemar gibir and Yedesdes" to landlords. Peasants submit one third (1/3) of the product as tax to landlord.

  17. Challenges of Tax Revenue Collection in Ethiopia:Case of Ethiopia

    Thus, the author recommended that the government of Ethiopia as well as the tax collecting Authority should concentrate on effective domestic tax collection, organize the economy to suit tax collection, create tax knowhow on the society and avoid tax maladministration. Keywords: revenue collection, tax, Government. DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-1-02

  18. Assessment of Tax Payment and Collection Problems in Jimma Zone, Ethiopia

    Specifically, aims to investigate the relationship of taxpayers' delay of declaration, corruption and political instability, organizational strength of the tax authority, taxpayers' awareness, starting business without license, tax fairness and modes of tax collection and tax collection. 1.3. Research Hypotheses The following research ...

  19. World Development Indicators

    World Development Indicators (WDI) is the primary World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized international sources. It presents the most current and accurate global development data available, and includes national, regional and global estimates. [Note: Even though Global Development Finance (GDF) is no longer listed in the WDI database name, all ...

  20. (PDF) Assessment of Determinants of Tax Collection (the Case From

    This study was focus on Determinates related with tax collection in Nagele Town East Guji Zone Oromia Region, Ethiopia. It is known that the existence of state without tax is unthinkable because ...